The Indian rupee was marginally weaker on Monday, dragged by the decline in Asian peers and a further drop in domestic equity indexes on worries over the outcome of the general election.
The rupee was at 83.52 to the U.S. dollar at 11:06 a.m. IST, down from 83.50 in the previous session. India’s Nifty 50 Index, adding to last week’s decline, dropped nearly 1% to the lowest in three weeks.
The comparatively low voter turnout so far has prompted worries that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party may not achieve a decisive victory that opinion polls had predicted, souring appetite for Indian equities.
Foreign investors took out more than USD 2 billion from Indian equities last week.
The rupee’s volatility remained low despite the foreign outflows, possibly due to intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
“It would seem that RBI is yet not ready for a move up (for USD/INR) from here,” a FX trader at a bank said.
“The incessant (dollar) offers do not line up with what is happening right now and that indicates RBI is active.”
Other major Asian currencies were down between 0.1% to 0.6% to begin the week that is likely to be key to when the Federal Reserve cuts rates. The U.S. consumer inflation data is due on Wednesday, with economists expecting a 0.3% month-on-month rise in the core measure.
Investors have priced in nearly two rate cuts by the Fed this year.
“Core CPI is the most important indicator, and that will need to fall back from 0.4% during the first three months of this year if the Fed’s current easing bias is to have credence,” ANZ Bank said in a note.
