The Indian rupee was little changed on Tuesday, tracking muted price action in most Asian currencies as markets await key U.S. inflation data for cues on when the Federal Reserve may begin to ease policy rates.
The rupee was at 83.5075 against the U.S. dollar as of 09:55 a.m. IST, against its close at 83.53 in the previous session. The currency was in a tight 83.5050-83.5175 range in early trading.
Most Asian currencies were steady save for the Indonesian rupiah, which declined 0.3%. The dollar index was at 105.25.
The rupee has mostly traded around the 83.50 mark over the last three sessions despite pressure from equity-related outflows. Traders remain wary of pushing the rupee lower amid expectations the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will intervene to limit declines.
Foreign investors have sold USD 2.2 billion of Indian equities in May so far, the strongest monthly outflow since January, according to stock depository data.
The outflows have been prompted by concerns that India’s ruling party may not come back to power with as strong an election outcome as predicted by opinion polls.
“The downside risk for the rupee is limited to 83.60,” Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex said.
U.S. producer price index data due later on Tuesday followed by closely-watched consumer inflation data due on Wednesday are likely to influence expectations of when the Fed may move to lower interest rates.
Investors are currently pricing in a 61% chance of a rate cut in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Given the RBI’s defence of the rupee, chances that the rupee gains on a soft U.S. inflation print are higher than it declining sharply if inflation is hotter than expected, a foreign exchange trader at a state-run bank said.
