The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed to slightly higher on Monday, with an uptick in most Asian currencies likely to help the unit extend gains beyond the two-month high hit last week.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 83.07-83.08 to the U.S. dollar, compared with the previous session’s close at 83.0975.
The currency rose to an intraday peak of 83.0250 on Friday, its highest since March 20, lifted by likely dollar inflows.
The rupee should move higher on Monday as well but it will be key to watch if it’s able to “rise above the strong hurdle at 83,” a foreign exchange trader at a foreign bank said.
Traders will also keep an eye on whether inflows into Indian equities resume this week ahead of the outcome of the country’s national elections on June 4.
The dollar index was at 104.7 after declining nearly 0.3% on Friday as traders likely booked profits after recent gains. Asian currencies were mostly higher, with the Korean won leading gains with a 0.3% rise.
Meanwhile, investors further pared expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year, following data on Friday that showed that new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods rebounded more than expected in April.
Just 34 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts are priced in for 2024 now, down from 50 bps – equivalent to two quarter-point cuts – a week ago.
U.S. PCE inflation data due later this week will be in focus, as markets seek further cues on when the Fed may begin to ease policy rates.
“We expect the data to reinforce the message from the earlier CPI that indicated inflation was returning to a path of moderation,” Societe Generale said in a note.
