The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Wednesday after weak U.S. retail sales data made it more likely that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice this year.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.36-83.38 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its close of 83.41 on Tuesday when the currency had its best day in nearly two weeks, spurred by inflows.
The rupee, in recent days, has been holding near its lifetime low of 83.5750 and has avoided breaching the mark largely due to the central bank’s intervention.
The rupee “has made it to the safe zone” in that it is not at risk of making an all-time low, a currency trader at a bank said.
“If yesterday was the beginning of a decent-sized down move, we should see good follow through today.”
The U.S. Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday means that there will be no demand for cash dollars, he pointed out.
Asian currencies were mostly higher and the dollar index dipped following data that indicated that the higher interest rates were finally having an impact on consumers.
U.S. retail sales barely rose in May and data for the prior month was revised considerably lower, suggesting that economic activity remained lacklustre in the second quarter.
The latest data points to an economy that is still largely resilient but showing signs of softening, MUFG Bank said in a note.
The weak retail sales print follows a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation reading, which prompted investors to price in two rate cuts in 2024, beginning in September.
Federal Reserve officials steered cautiously toward what most expect to be an interest rate cut or two this year.
