The Indian rupee is likely to be under pressure on Monday after U.S. business activity crept up to an-over-2-year high, boosting demand for the dollar.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open marginally weaker against the U.S. dollar from 83.5325 in the previous session.
The currency slipped to an all-time low of 83.6650 last Thursday, largely on the back of outflow related to the Vodafone Group selling its stake in India’s Indus Towers.
“You would think that a new high (for the dollar) will not be revisited, this week at least,” a currency trader at a bank said.
An expectation of higher inflows related to an inclusion of Indian bonds into the JP Morgan index, alongside a central bank that “will definitely not want a large move” higher on dollar/rupee indicates that 83.66 is safe, he said.
The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields nudged higher on Friday amid the S&P saying that its June flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to a 26-month high.
That led to concerns about a potential delay in the Federal Reserve’s rate cut timing, ANZ Bank said in a note.
Investors have priced in two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, which is more optimistic relative to what policymakers had signalled at the last meeting.
U.S. core PCE data, due this Friday, will provide cues on the timing and extent of rate cuts. The U.S. May core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, is expected to rise at a muted pace of 0.1% month-on-month.
