Wholesale volumes across various segments of the automobile industry in June 2024 are anticipated to reflect a subdued trend, primarily attributed to the absence of wedding dates, according to Anand Rathi report.
Analysts project a mixed performance with two-wheeler (2W) volumes showing resilience, while passenger vehicles (PVs) and commercial vehicles (CVs) are expected to see slight declines. Tractor volumes are likely to remain flat during this period.
The overall scenario for June suggests a single-digit decline in wholesale volumes for listed two-wheeler companies, despite an overall growth trajectory led by Honda and its favorable base from the previous year.
Year-to-date (YTD) growth figures for the sector have been robust, registering a significant 15% increase.
Looking ahead, industry experts foresee a promising outlook across segments, with two-wheelers expected to outperform other categories.
Projections for FY25 indicate an anticipated growth rate of 11% for two-wheelers, 5% for both PVs and CVs, and 4% for tractors.
The positive sentiment underscores a bullish stance on the automotive sector, with key original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motors, and Mahindra & Mahindra identified as preferred picks.
In the two-wheeler segment, TVS Motors is anticipated to report a 3% increase in volumes, contrasting with a 16% decline expected for Royal Enfield. Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto are likely to see marginal declines of 5% and 4%, respectively. The retail market faced challenges with a month-on-month (m/m) decline of 10-15% in the absence of auspicious wedding dates.
For passenger vehicles, Mahindra & Mahindra is projected to lead with a 32% rise in volumes, while market leader Maruti Suzuki is expected to maintain flat volumes. Tata Motors, however, may witness a 5% decline in volumes. Variations in blended discounts were noted m/m, with increases for Maruti Suzuki but reductions for Tata Motors.
Commercial vehicle volumes are expected to experience a slight downturn, with VECV (Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles) likely to achieve a 6% increase and Ashok Leyland a 4% rise. Conversely, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra are expected to see declines of 3% and 2%, respectively.
The tractor market is anticipated to show stable volumes, with both Mahindra & Mahindra and Escorts expected to report a modest 1% increase.
