The Indian rupee is expected to open marginally weaker or flat on Wednesday as comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman on inflation progress provided scant relief to Asian peers.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open in the 83.50-83.52 range to the U.S. dollar, compared with 83.5050 in the previous session. Asian currencies were mostly lower, while the dollar inched up following Tuesday’s dip.
The rupee in the last three weeks had been roughly in an 83.35-83.60 band, “which you think will broadly hold”, said a currency trader at a bank.
It was “likely to be a holding” session for the rupee with risk “slightly on the 83.55 way than on the 83.45”, he said.
The biggest worry for the rupee currently was the Chinese yuan, according to the trader. The offshore yuan dropped to 7.3096, the weakest since November.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a monetary policy conference in Portugal, discussed the United States being back on a disinflationary path while arguing that more data was needed before cutting interest rates to ensure that recent weaker inflation readings provided a true picture of what was happening to underlying price pressure.
“Powell offered a balanced view with an underlying tone of cautious optimism,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.
The odds of a Fed rate cut at the September meeting currently were near 2-in-3.
U.S. Treasury yields dropped during Powell’s remarks. However, data showing U.S. job openings increased in May after posting outsized declines in the prior two months, stalled the rally in the Treasuries.
Investors will be eyeing the U.S. June jobs report due this Friday for more cues on the health of the labour market.
