The Indian rupee is expected to decline to a lifetime low at the open on Monday, weighed by the rout in U.S. and Asian equities on concerns that the world’s largest economy may be headed for an economic slowdown.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.82-83.84 to the U.S. dollar, down from 83.75 in the previous session and slipping past its lifetime low of 83.7525 hit on Friday.
For the rupee, the obvious worry will be that the “ugly turn in risk” could mean outflows from equities, a currency trader at a bank said.
The Reserve Bank of India will be expected to intervene to “keep conditions calm and I have little doubt that they will,” he said.
Futures on the S&P 500 Index dropped 1.5%, adding to Friday’s slump. South Korean and Japanese equities paced losses in Asia, with declines of up to 5.6%. Japan’s Nikkei slipped into a bear market, down more than 20% from the July peak.
Investors dumped risk assets and piled into U.S. Treasuries after a weak U.S. jobs report fanned fears of a recession. U.S. July non-farm payrolls were well below expectations, the previous month’s numbers were revised lower and most importantly, the unemployment rate climbed to a near three-year high.
The July labour market report had “rattled markets”, with the nonfarm payroll addition pace now below the pre-pandemic average, ANZ Bank said in a note.
“The soft-landing narrative (is now) in question … (and) the data raises the question of whether the Federal Reserve is behind the curve in cutting rates.”
Investors are pricing in aggressive Fed rate cuts. Futures indicate a high probability of a 50 basis points rate cut at the September meeting and about 115 basis points of rate cuts through the three meetings remaining this year.
This pulled the dollar index to the lowest since mid-March.
