The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Wednesday on the back of a further recovery in Asian equities, which helped allay fears regarding the fallout of the Japanese yen carry trade.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at 83.90-83.92 to the U.S. dollar compared with its previous close of 83.9525.
Shares in Japan rose more than 3%, adding to Tuesday’s 9% rally, and have fully recovered from Monday’s mauling when concerns over the unwinding of the yen carry trade wrecked havoc.
The yen declined to 146.70 to U.S. dollar, having climbed to 141.66 on Monday. The yuan, which has been largely tracking the yen, declined past 7.18.
Currently, the rupee “has a sort of” reverse correlation to the yuan, which in turn is highly correlated to the yen, a currency trader at a bank said.
The recovery on equities is pegging back the yen, and rupee “should hopefully have a bit of a relief”, he said.
The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday indicated that it is not comfortable to rupee weakening past 84 for now, and that will be added supporting factor, he said.
The RBI on Tuesday likely intervened in the non-deliverable forward market and in the onshore spot market, making sure that the rupee did not decline past 84.
Further, the central bank has directed some large banks to not make aggressive trading bets against the rupee.
The dollar index rose in Asia, boosted by traders trimming down bets on the extent of rate cuts the Federal Reserve will deliver this year.
Amid the pause in the selloff in equities, investors see the Fed cutting rates by 100 basis points over the next three meetings this year, down from 125 bps on Monday.
The “violent market reactions” to last week’s disappointing U.S. labour report continued to backtrack, suggesting that the initial response was overdone, ING Bank said in a note.
