The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Wednesday as the dollar struggled in the lead up to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell‘s comments and on likely hedging interest from importers.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open unchanged from 83.7925 in the previous session.
The rupee had its best day in nearly two months on Tuesday, thanks to the across-the-board decline in the dollar. The dollar index is near its lowest level this year.
“The last round of the dollar’s fall has been without an apparent trigger, which is never a good sign (for the U.S. currency),” a currency trader at a bank said.
“When you add to that the resolute defence of the 84-level, longs (on dollar/rupee) do not make sense and I suspect a positions have been down (which are helping the rupee).”
Still, it is not expected that the rupee will be able to manage much of a rally from here.
Overall, the direction of the rupee remains on the weaker side and importers are likely to use any relief rallies to hedge, a fx salesperson at a private sector bank said.
The dollar index dipped to 101.30 on Wednesday, the lowest since January, while Asian currencies were mixed after having advanced the last two days. Investors awaited revisions to U.S. payrolls data later in the day and Powell’s comments to the Jackson Hole economic conference in Wyoming later in the week.
The payrolls revisions are important amid the ongoing debate about whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 at next month’s meeting.
U.S. payroll revisions later could change the path of payrolls the way we currently know it, and the most likely outcome is that it will be significantly weaker, ING Bank said in a note.
Weaker payrolls would suggest a likelihood of a more dovish Fed.
