The two-wheeler (2W) industry is anticipated to grow in high single digits, with an estimated 8 % year-on-year (YoY) increase whereas the tractor industry is anticipated to see marginal growth of approximately 4 % YoY in the domestic market, according to a report by Nuvama, a wealth and investment firm.
The growth of the 2 wheeler market is primarily driven by strong rural demand coupled with sustained urban sales. The favourable monsoon has improved rural sentiments, leading to an uptick in sales. Additionally, wholesale volumes are expected to outpace retail sales as dealers build up inventory ahead of the upcoming festive period.
Improved farmer sentiments, driven by normal monsoon conditions, have contributed to this positive outlook for the tractor industry. Additionally, favourable terms of trade, with output inflation outpacing input inflation, have further bolstered the sector.
The Passenger Vehicle segment is likely to experience a marginal decline in sales by approximately 3 % (YoY) in the domestic market. This muted performance in the PV segment is attributed to the early onset of the festive season last year, which has created a high base effect.
According to the report, the commercial vehicle (CV) industry is expected to face a slight contraction of around 4 % in annual growth in the domestic market. This decline is primarily due to a high base effect for cargo vehicles, despite positive indicators such as increased e-way bill generation and signalling better freight availability for transporters.
Overall the report suggests that Aug-24 volumes will be a mixed bag for the automotive industry, with growth observed in the 2 wheelers and tractor segments, while PV and CV segments will face challenges.
Among 2 Wheelers OEMs, mass-market players are expected to perform well adds the report. In the automobile market in India, 2-wheelers and passenger cars account for 75.3 % and 17.6 % of the market share respectively. Passenger car sales are dominated by small and mid-sized cars, but in recent years SUV sales have increased significantly.
In the export market, India’s exports of automobiles in 2023-24 were recorded at 45,00,492 vehicles out of which 2-wheelers accounted for 76.8 % of the total exports. During the same period, passenger vehicle exports increased from 6,62,891 units to 6,72,105 units registering a positive growth of 13.8 % .
India aims to double its auto industry size to INR 15 lakh crore by the end of the year 2024.
