Bond yields drifted higher on Tuesday, while currencies and Asia’s stock markets steadied as investors waited on a raft of data to determine how deeply the U.S. can cut interest rates.
Ten-year Treasury yields were slightly higher at 3.919% and two-year yields rose a basis point to 3.935% as trade resumed in Asia following a U.S. holiday overnight.
Upbeat spending figures on Friday led markets to trim the chance of a half-point easing from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. ISM manufacturing survey due later in the day and particularly jobs data due on Friday will be crucial for the Fed’s decision.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked 0.1% lower. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.7% and S&P 500 futures were flat. The dollar has steadied along with U.S. yields as focus turns to Friday.
“It really boils down to Friday’s number,” said Raisah Rasid, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Singapore, with policymakers looking for a cooling labour market to clear the way for rate cuts.
“We don’t see any stress or indications that would necessitate a 50 basis point cut…the question is how long will risk assets continue to rally?”
Economists forecast the ISM survey improving but remaining in contractionary territory at 47.5 in August.
“I am not so sure the dollar will take too kindly to a weaker read,” said Pepperstone analyst Chris Weston. “A number closer to 50 would likely compel dollar shorts to cover.”
On Friday analysts are looking for a rise of 160,000 in jobs and a dip in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.
The dollar was firm at 146.85 yen and traded at $1.1063 per euro in the Asia session. Rallies in the Australian and New Zealand dollars paused for breath, with the Aussie held just below $0.68.
In Hong Kong, shares in property company New World Development slumped to a two-decade low after the company estimated a $2.6 billion loss for the year to June.
In Australia, Woolworths shares fell 3% a day after the supermarket operator said it would sell its remaining stake in a chain of liquor shops.
Gold hovered at $2,494 an ounce after hitting a record high above $2,500 in August.
Oil prices have struggled for traction as demand worries weigh against tension in the Middle East and Brent crude futures slipped 0.5% to $77.13 a barrel.
