The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly weaker and stay under pressure on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations of more larger-than-usual interest rate cuts, boosting the U.S. dollar.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 83.80-83.81 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.7925 in the previous session.
The dollar index and U.S. bond yields rose after Powell’s comments, where he emphasised that the Fed was not “in a hurry” to cut rates after recent data boosted confidence in ongoing economic growth.
Following the Fed Chair’s remarks, odds of a 50-basis-point rate reduction in November declined to nearly 39%, from 53% a day earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Asian currencies were mostly weaker, with the Malaysian ringgit down 0.8% and leading losses.
Elevated dollar demand on account of equity-related outflows could also keep the rupee under pressure, a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said.
But the currency is expected to find support around 83.90 as those levels would be quite appealing for exporters to sell dollars, the trader added.
Benchmark Indian equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 posted their steepest single-day drop in two months on Monday, with overseas investors net selling stocks worth USD 1.1 billion, according to provisional exchange data.
Despite intermittent pressures, analysts expect the Fed’s easing cycle to continue weighing on the dollar which should help emerging market currencies, including the rupee.
“Our FX Strategist expects the broader dollar index to test crucial support levels in the quarter ahead, which might see the INR gain ground but still lag the recovery in Asian peers,” DBS Bank said in a note.
