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Going through Kelley Blue Book’s latest data on US EV sales, one thing that jumped out to be was how much Tesla Model S and Model X sales crashed year over year. There are a few reasons I think that may have happened, but I’ve got no definitive conclusion or answer on it. Googling the topic didn’t provide me with any notable responses on it either.
Apparently, Tesla sold just 1,669 Model S sedans and 3,338 Model X SUVs in the third quarter in the US. That’s down from 3,132 Model S sedans in Q3 2023 (-47%) and down from 4,699 Model X SUVs in Q3 2023 (-29%). Furthermore, those numbers were down dramatically from the Q3 2022 numbers. In short, Model X and Model S sales have fallen off a cliff.
So, what is going on? Is it down to people buying the Model 3 and Model Y rather than the Model S and Model X more and more? The old-school, large models have lost their pizazz and are just trailing off? Or is it people who want a large, expensive Tesla shifting to a Cybertruck instead? (The Cybertruck had more than 16,000 deliveries in the same quarter.) Is Tesla prioritizing batteries and production capacity for these other models? (That seems unlikely, since production lines were already set up for the S and X and profit margins must have been superb, so it doesn’t seem logical to not produce as many as consumers want.)
There are also matters outside of Tesla that are perhaps at play. GM sold a whopping 4,305 GMC Hummer EVs in the third quarter, which, as you can see, is more units than the Model X scored. You’ve also got several luxury models from Mercedes, BMW, Cadillac, Genesis, and Audi. The Cadillac Lyriq is especially doing well — sales soared 139% year over year, reaching 7,224 sales, more than double Model X sales. Then there’s also the other pure-EV brands. Rivian and Lucid are also competing with the Model X and Model S, respectively. Lucid Air sales were up 33% year over year. Rivian sales were down, but the company still sold more than 11,000 units of its R1S and R1T combined.
If the reason for Tesla’s dropping Model X and S sales is growing competition and more and more buyers getting comfortable going to these legacy auto brands for their luxury EVs, I’m not going to lie, that makes me think the Model Y and Model 3 could have trouble on the horizon as well. Those newer Tesla models are getting older quick as more and more competitors come onto the field, and while the rest of the auto industry has focused on the higher end of the market for the transition to EVs, more and more models on the more affordable end of the market are arriving. With more competition, can the Model 3 and Model Y hold their high level of sales, let alone grow?
Perhaps all of the above factors are at play. However, for now, I’ll assume a lot of would-be Model S and Model X buyers are buying the Cybertruck instead — even though I have a hard time seeing how the Model S and Cybertruck would have a ton of cross-shoppers. Let me know if I’m missing an important factor or two.
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