The Indian rupee is likely to decline on Thursday, weighed down by the U.S. dollar‘s rally to a two-and-a-half-month high on mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve will opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its next monetary policy meeting.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 84.01-84.03 to the dollar, compared with 83.9950 in the previous session.
The rupee, slightly surprisingly, managed a mini rally late on Wednesday, to past the 84 handle.
In the context of how low the volatility on the rupee is, “I would says yesterday’s move was quite decent”, a currency trader at a bank said.
“At least decent enough, to nullify the immediate bias on the upside (for dollar/rupee) pair.”
The dollar/rupee pair not able to make much headway, following the move past 84 and possible inflows were reasons cited for the last hour dip.
The rupee now will have to contend with a dollar that in the New York session on Wednesday climbed to 103.60, its highest level since the first week of August. The dollar is on a four-day winning streak, boosted by the increasing probability of U.S. election victory for former President Donald Trump and near surety that the Fed will not deliver a large rate cut next month.
Markets are now nearly certain that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, which is supporting the dollar and add to that a Trump win is considered a positive for the dollar, Srinivas Puni, managing director at QuantArt Market Solutions, said.
The slump in the pound on Wednesday on weaker-than-expected UK inflation data further helped the dollar.
Focus now turns to the U.S. retail sales and jobless claims data due later in the day. The jobless claims data is especially important in wake of the Fed’s intention to not wanting a further cooling in the labour market.
