The Indian rupee is likely to open nearly unchanged on Tuesday and trade in a narrow range amid expectations that the country’s central bank intervention will offset the impact of a jump in the U.S. Treasury yields.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 84.07-84.08 to the dollar, compared with 84.0725 on Monday and a record low of 84.0775 hit last week.
The rupee’s dip past the key level of 84 earlier this month has been of little consequence in terms of the currency’s volatility. The rupee’s realized volatility remains the lowest among Asian currencies. The biggest intraday swing on the currency since it declined past 84 has been just 10 paisa.
Intraday price swings in the last two sessions have been limited to just 3 paisa. The Reserve Bank of India has been regularly selling dollars via public sector banks to make sure that the rupee’s decline past 84 does not cause flutters.
It is this central bank intervention that has helped rupee ride out equity outflows, the rally in the dollar and the rise in U.S. Treasury yields.
“I have little doubt that we would, at the minimum, be at 84.50 if the RBI had left it to market forces,” a currency trader at a bank said.
“Today again, the RBI will just hold it (dollar/rupee) here and we will have a nothing day.”
US YIELDS, DOLLAR CLIMB
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to a 12-week high on Monday, pushing the dollar index to the highest in more than two months. The recent fairly robust U.S. data, prospect of Donald Trump winning the U.S. November election and the less dovish Federal Reserve outlook have spurred a 40 basis points rise in the 10-year yield.
