Tesla said today that it remains on track to produce and launch “more affordable models” in the first half of next year, but it shared no new details on when we might expect to hear more.
For several years now, Tesla has been teasing everyone with the promise of more affordable models.
While the Tesla Model 3 is pretty reasonably priced, many have been waiting for a promised $25,000 model, which many had taken to calling the “Model 2.”
Tesla was supposedly going to pursue a new revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing method to get costs down for the future vehicle, to enable this lower price.
However, earlier this year Tesla CEO Elon Musk refocused the company’s efforts on its recently-announced and much–delayed Robotaxi product and cancelled plans for a $25,000 vehicle, as first reported by Reuters and denied by Musk. Reuters was later shown to be correct in its report.
But even after that, Tesla has continued to state that it is pursuing “more affordable models,” with little additional detail available.
In today’s earnings report, Tesla reiterated guidance stating that it still plans a more affordable model in the coming months, but that it won’t be nearly as revolutionary as originally planned.
Here’s the passage:
Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.
This approach will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.
Our purpose-built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy.
This passage is actually exactly the same as what appeared in Tesla’s Q2 earnings, just shifted forward in time three months.
Elsewhere in the report, Tesla states that its “Next Gen Platform” is still “In development,” for production in various regions around the world. Tesla currently operates vehicle manufacturing facilities in California, Texas, Shanghai and Berlin.
Electrek’s Take
If Tesla’s timeline is to be believed, this new model is coming in less than 8 months. While it’s not impossible that a company can develop a model in secret and get it on the road within 8 months of the public learning about it, we have never seen a new Tesla model go from introduction to production anywhere near that quickly.
It’s much more common for Tesla to hold a big launch party and then release the vehicle to the public many years later (sometimes with big delivery delays for certain specs or certain buyers).
Even refreshes usually have news leaked months in advance. We’ve seen a refreshed Model Y driving around with what looks like a more Model 3 highland-like front end, and recently heard rumors that the Model Y refresh is going into trial production in Shanghai this week.
That refresh likely wouldn’t make it into the market until early next year, especially in North America, if production is starting in Shanghai first.
It’s almost enough to make us wonder – is this the “more affordable” model that Tesla has been talking about all this time? Just a refreshed Model Y, perhaps with process improvements that will enable Tesla to push the price down some?
If so, that would be quite disappointing. A refresh isn’t really a new model, and it’s unlikely to break any new ground in terms of becoming the lowest-priced Tesla ever (since we can’t imagine they’d price the Model Y lower than the Model 3).
And if they’re not talking about the refresh, and indeed are talking about an actual new model – that just adds another product to Tesla’s mind-numbingly-crowded “next year,” where Musk has stated that the company will change the world in 6 – count ’em, six – ways.
We certainly hope a new cheaper model is coming, especially as Tesla’s offerings (minus the polarizing Cybertruck) have become a little bit stale. It could help drive more EV adoption by reaching a new lower price point, could change perceptions of Tesla as a luxury-only vehicle brand, and could even bring in new customers for Model 3/Y who had previously been turned off by that perception of Teslas as being “too expensive” (despite, e.g., quite attractive lease deals).
And in particular, it remains disappointing that Musk has chosen to focus on a pie-in-the-sky Robotaxi (which will not be available “next year,” for the tenth-or-so year he’s said it will be), and various AI-buzzword nonsense, than what consumers keep asking for – a cheaper EV model. Reiteration that Tesla is working on one is good, but we’ll remain unconvinced until Tesla shares more details.
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