The Indian rupee will be caught between a softer dollar on one side and outflows on the other on the last day of a week in which the local currency has held a 3 paisa range – its narrowest this year – and dropped to a lifetime low.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open nearly unchanged at 84.0775 in the previous session.
The rupee has been in the 84.0550-84.0825 range this week largely thanks to a central bank that is helping the currency in the backdrop of persistent equity outflows and higher U.S. Treasury yields.
The Reserve Bank of India has, on several days this week, been on the offer on the dollar/rupee pair all through the session via public sector banks. As a result, foreign money pouring out of Indian equities has had little impact.
The rupee trickled to an all-time low of 84.0825 on Tuesday, without any sort of follow-through.
“We can keep debating whether what the RBI is doing is right or wrong and whether there will be a price to pay down the road,” a currency trader at a bank said.
“The reality of the matter right now is that RBI’s chokehold, which has been there for a long time, will remain.”
He expects yet another quiet day with the rupee “hanging around” 84.07-84.08.
The dollar index dropped 0.4% on Wednesday and was slightly lower in Asia, taking a bit of a breather following a rally. Despite the drip, the dollar remains largely supported by building confidence that the Federal Reserve will be prudent at rate cuts and prospects of a Donald Trump win.
Meanwhile, foreign outflows from Indian equities this month are on course to top USD 10 billion, a significant turnaround from the inflows of USD 7 billion in September.
