India’s electric bus segment is poised for steady but measured growth, with penetration levels expected to reach 20-30 percent by 2030, according to Mahesh Babu, CEO of Olectra Greentech, speaking at the India EV Conclave.
“By 2030, the EV penetration levels in buses will largely remain around 20-30 percent,” Babu stated during the panel discussion on mapping India’s EV success stories across segments.
The bus segment has shown promising growth in recent years. Electric bus sales in India experienced substantial growth of 59 percent in calendar year 2024, reaching 3,822 units. The PM E-DRIVE scheme, launched in October 2024 with a total outlay of Rs 10,900 crore, allocated Rs 4,391 crore specifically for electric buses to drive urban public transport sustainability.
Babu emphasized that the tendering process for e-buses has become more streamlined than in previous years. “The tendering process for e-buses is now more acceptable than it was earlier,” he said, indicating improved government procurement mechanisms and clearer specifications.
However, he noted that challenges remain, particularly in financing and supply chain management. “The challenges include financing and supply chain issues,” Babu said, echoing concerns raised by other panelists about the industry’s vulnerability to component shortages and price volatility.
Babu offered a philosophical perspective on the supply chain debate that has dominated industry discussions. “The auto industry is not just about product innovation. It’s about survival of fitness, including who can survive and secure the supply chains,” he said.
Taking a pragmatic approach to the China dependency issue, Babu suggested a balanced strategy. “There is no right or wrong in the supply chain issues. There are no perfect solutions. We can import now and at the same time try to de-risk for the future,” he explained. “It’s a growing industry and we need to do everything to remain competitive.”
Olectra Greentech, a joint venture between Olectra Greentech Limited and BYD, has been a significant player in India’s e-bus market, supplying buses to various State Transport Undertakings (STUs) across the country.
The e-bus segment is considered critical for India’s clean mobility transition, particularly in urban areas where public transport accounts for significant emissions. The Economic Survey underscored that given India’s vast size and limited land availability, public transportation is a more efficient alternative for viable energy transition.
The relatively conservative 20-30 percent penetration estimate for buses by 2030 contrasts with higher expectations for two-wheelers and three-wheelers, where adoption has been more rapid due to lower upfront costs and shorter.