Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd expects the Indian tractor industry to accelerate faster than previously anticipated, as the Mumbai-based manufacturer raised its forecast for sector growth to 9% annually through fiscal 2030, up from an earlier estimate of 7%. The upbeat projection, shared by executives during an investor call Thursday, comes as surging crop profitability and government tax cuts fuel demand for more powerful machines.
Behind the bullish outlook is the profitability of cash and horticultural crops, which has risen 5.6%, according to company data, while the Tractor Price Index, a gauge of machine costs, has declined 7.1%. At the same time, changes in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) are pushing the sector toward larger and more advanced tractors, Mahindra said.
With these tailwinds, India’s installed tractor base is projected to reach 12.2 million units by FY2030, a sizable jump from the previous estimate of 11 million. However, actual tractor requirements could be much higher. By Mahindra’s calculation, achieving optimal mechanization would require as many as 17 million tractors (at a density of 4 horsepower per hectare), or as much as 24 million units if a 6 HP per hectare benchmark is applied, underscoring “substantial penetration upside” across the sector.
A key shift underway is the swift transition to higher-horsepower equipment. Tractors in the 40-50 HP range have grown to represent 64% of sales in FY2025, up sharply from 49% just five years ago.
From FY2020 to FY2025, Mahindra says it has ramped up its global tractor volumes by 1.4 times, reaching 433,000 units in the most recent fiscal year. This performance helped drive annual tractor revenues to Rs 35,375 crore and post-profit after tax of Rs 3,792 crore.
Mahindra’s strategy is explicitly anchored in a bullish view on rural mechanization, underpinned by three growth levers: faster industry expansion, deeper market penetration, and a structural shift toward higher-horsepower tractors.
Globally, the company is extending its reach with manufacturing and distribution operations in the U.S., Brazil, Turkey, and Japan. In North America, Mahindra’s market share in sub-20 horsepower tractors stood just below 10.4% in the March quarter. The company recently rolled out its 1100 Sub Compact and 2100 Compact series and is preparing to launch models including the OJA Small and Large Utility and high-horsepower platforms. The North American market for tractors below 110 HP is about 200,000 units, Mahindra officials said.
In Brazil, Mahindra’s share hovers at around 8% in the sub-120 HP category and 20% in the sub-50 HP segment. Upcoming launches in international markets include new high-horsepower models, the NOVO line, and the OJA series. The company also announced plans for a new manufacturing facility to support its ambitions abroad.