Calendar year 2025 has turned out to be yet another robust one for the two-wheeler market, especially at the retail level. While two-wheeler registrations did not grow at the expected double-digit pace, despite the unexpected tax cut for lower-displacement models, total registrations have crossed the 20 million mark in 2025 till now, with high single-digit growth estimated for the full year. Factory dispatches, however, rose only in low single digits, pointing to inventory clearance and lean stock levels at dealerships.
As per data available on the Vahan portal (as of December 30 morning), total two-wheeler registrations for the January–December period were at 20.2 million units. The exact 2025 figure will be higher, as it can take two to three days after the purchase for the registration data to be updated on the Vahan portal.
Between January–November, registrations rose around 7% year-on-year to 18.97 million units, while factory dispatches during the same period increased by just 1.6% to 18.08 million units. For the full calendar year 2024, registrations were at 18.92 million units and dispatches at 18.85 million units.
While above-normal monsoon, strong kharif harvest and steady RBI rates supported purchasing power in the economy, GST 2.0 acted as a booster to demand for lower-displacement models in the second half of the year, particularly driving the festival season to record all-time highs.
Previously, all two-wheelers attracted 28% GST, with models above 350cc paying an additional 3% cess. The new regime restructured rates based on engine capacity, cutting GST on bikes and scooters up to 350cc to 18%, benefitting over 90% of the domestic two-wheeler industry portfolio. However, premium models above 350cc now have a GST rate of 40%.
“Rural India became the true growth engine — with favourable monsoons, higher farm incomes, and a government infrastructure push driving purchasing power. Rural PV sales grew over three times faster than urban, while rural 2W growth nearly doubled urban rates, marking a structural shift in the demand map of India’s auto sector,” Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations President C.S. Vigneshwar said while commenting on the October sales. He noted that dealers described it as the best festive season in recent memory, with strong traction in commuter bikes and scooters, alongside rising EV interest.
“At the start of the fiscal, ICRA projected growth of 4–7% for the PV segment and 6–9% for the 2W segment (April–March). However, the PV growth forecast was revised downward to 1–4%, led by expectations of muted offtake due to high inventory levels and concerns over potential supply chain disruptions. In contrast, the 2W growth forecast remains unchanged,” said Rohan Kanwar Gupta, vice president and sector head for Corporate Ratings at ICRA.
Also, scooters emerged as the main growth driver, even as motorcycle demand weakened through the year. Barring TVS Motor and Suzuki Motorcycles, all major OEMs reported only single-digit growth in registrations. TVS Motor and Suzuki, in contrast, posted strong double-digit growth, supported by their scooter-heavy line-ups and mid-size motorcycle offerings.
These two OEMs, along with Royal Enfield, were the only OEMs to record growth in January–November dispatches, while all others were in the red. TVS Motor, which continues to build on its run with a solid scooter lineup, is one of the strongest market-share gainers this year. Royal Enfield’s wholesale and retail volumes are also set to hit the 1 million mark in calendar year 2025.
Meanwhile, the rivalry between the two erstwhile partners — Hero MotoCorp and Honda — continues to play out. Last year, Honda had sharply narrowed the gap with Hero MotoCorp, with many industry watchers expecting it to overtake Hero to become the country’s largest two-wheeler maker.
That, however, did not materialise this calendar year. The gap between Hero MotoCorp and Honda in registration data has widened to around 8.51 lakh units during January–November this year, while the gap had narrowed to 6.89 lakh units in 2024 from 13.80 lakh units in 2023.
Hero MotoCorp, which has long dominated the entry-level motorcycle segment, focused more this year on strengthening its presence in the 125cc-plus category and scooters — areas that are increasingly shaping mass-market growth. The company refreshed its 125cc portfolio with new variants of the Glamour and bolstered its scooter line-up with updates to the Xoom and Destini.
At the same time, Honda stepped up pressure on Hero’s core segments, expanding its commuter offerings with the Shine 100 Deluxe and the CB125 Hornet, setting the stage for a renewed contest for everyday riders.
“Following a sharp sales down-cycle during FY20–22 (c. 35% decline), the two-wheeler industry entered a recovery phase from FY23. Recent government measures — including GST rationalisation, income-tax reforms and interest-rate cuts — have further supported demand, leading to an upgrade of FY26–FY27 industry growth estimates by up to 300 bps.
Based on a 40-year industry history, up-cycles have lasted a minimum of eight years, suggesting the current recovery has a long runway ahead,” said Raghunandhan NL, director at Nuvama Institutional Equities.