Another year has passed, and with it, another collection of Elon Musk’s ambitious timelines that didn’t quite align with reality. For those of us who have been following Tesla for years, this pattern is all too familiar. 2025 was billed as a year of massive expansion, widespread autonomy, and humanoid robots.
Now that the year is pretty much in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at Musk’s top 5 Tesla predictions that missed the mark.
1. The 20-30% EV Volume Growth That Became a Drop
2024 was Tesla’s first year of EV delivery volume decline in a decade.
Back in late 2024, Elon Musk was confident about Tesla going back to growth in 2025. On an earnings call, he stated that he “foresees volume growth increasing by 20-30% in 2025.”
Even in early 2025, Tesla was still talking about “going back to growth” in the calendar year, but the prospect became increasingly unlikely throughout the year.
Instead of the predicted double-digit growth, Tesla’s annual deliveries fell to approximately 1.64 million vehicles, down from the previous year, according to the automaker’s latest estimates for Q4.
It marks Tesla’s second year of decline in a row despite global EV sales surging 25% this year.
2. Robotaxis Covering 50% of the US Population
Musk’s predictions for the Robotaxi program were particularly grand. In July 2025, he said, “I think we’ll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.” He had also previously claimed that Tesla would “have over a million robotaxis on the road” in 2025.
He made these predictions in 2025, with better visibility into Tesla’s performances than anyone, and yet, they didn’t come true. Not even close.
Musk increasingly reduced his Robotaxi predictions throughout the year.
Just a few months ago, in October, he claimed Tesla would have “500 Robotaxis” in Austin by the end of the year. A month later, in November, he reviewed that down to about 60 Robotaxis.
In reality, Tesla’s fleet of “Robotaxis” in Austin consists of only about 30 vehicles, and as we reported last week, most of them are not in operation most of the time and still require safety monitors inside the cars.
3. The “Mind-Blowing” Demo That Vanished
In the summer of 2025, Musk took to X to tease what he called the “most epic demo ever by the end of the year.“
As we noted at the time, we’ve heard this kind of hype before and then Musk left us hanging. It looks like it is another repeat in 2025. It seems to have gone the way of the coast-to-coast full self-driving drive that was promised years ago.
The craziest part about this prediction is that it was just for a “demo” and Tesla had months to deliver and never did.
Even crazier is that we now know for a fact that this is related to the new Roadster, which has itself been delayed for 5 years straight. As of the latest, Musk has talked about pushing the demo to April 2026.
4. Tesla Semi Production Kicked Down the Road Again
The Tesla Semi program has been a saga of delays. Tesla had officially guided for a start of production in 2025.
However, as the end of the year approached, it became clear this target would not be met. In late 2025, Tesla confirmed that volume production for the electric truck had slipped yet again, this time into 2026.
At least, it looks like it should be in early 2026, but considering the vehicle was first supposed to come in 2019, we’d better not hold our breath.
5. The Missing Army of Optimus Robots
Musk had set an ambitious goal of having “thousands” of Optimus humanoid robots working in Tesla factories by the end of 2025.
The CEO even mentioned a goal of producing “5,000 to 10,000 Optimus robots in 2025.”
We don’t have official numbers, but there’s no evidence that Tesla produced thousands of robots or even hundreds in 2025.
There have been several supply chain reports that pointed to Tesla delaying its Optimus program, and Tesla has yet to unveil the latest version of the robot.
To date, Tesla has only been able to demonstrate Optimus performing very simple tasks, such as handing out water bottles, and even then, it relied on teleoperation to make that happen with limited success.
Electrek’s Take
Here’s an interesting quote from Musk: “The ability to predict the future is the best measure of intelligence.”
Based on Musk’s own standard of intelligence, he is a grade A moron.
It’s wild that some of these predictions weren’t even that ambitious and also weren’t long-term. For example, having 500 Robotaxis in Austin in a few months is somewhat achievable, but even that didn’t happen.
Why? I think it’s fairly simple. Even with a few cars operating at a time with safety monitors, Tesla is experiencing a very high crash rate. If it were to grow the fleet, it would see even more crashes.
The Robotaxi project is all about balancing optics and creating the impression of progress.
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