The recent military operation in Venezuela is unlikely to have a material impact on India’s global trade or the credit quality of Indian companies, according to a credit alert issued by CRISIL Ratings on Monday.
Despite the turmoil in Venezuela, CRISIL Ratings does not anticipate disruption to Indian businesses. The rating agency noted that even if the situation escalates and disrupts crude oil production in Venezuela, the country’s share of approximately 1.5% of global supply is too small to cause sustained turbulence in oil prices.
Brent crude oil prices have remained stable over recent days, hovering just above $60 per barrel.
Minimal Trade Exposure
India’s direct trade with Venezuela is minimal, accounting for less than 0.25% of total imports. Crude oil represents the primary import from Venezuela, with India sourcing about 1% of its crude requirements from the South American nation. In fiscal 2025, crude oil and related products made up over 90% of the approximately Rs 14,000 crore in total imports from Venezuela.
India imports around 85% of its crude oil requirements, making it sensitive to global price movements and supply disruptions. However, CRISIL noted that investments to increase crude oil production in Venezuela, which holds vast reserves, could boost global supply over the medium to long term and potentially soften prices, which would benefit Indian companies.
According to publications by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Venezuela has crude oil reserves of 303 billion barrels, representing roughly 19% of global reserves.
Export Impact
India’s exports to Venezuela totaled under Rs 2,000 crore in fiscal 2025, representing less than 0.1% of total exports. The exports span multiple sectors including pharmaceuticals, ceramics, textiles, and two-wheelers.
Pharmaceutical products led India’s exports to Venezuela at approximately Rs 900 crore last fiscal, but this represented less than 0.5% of India’s total pharmaceutical exports. Exports of ceramics, textiles, and two-wheelers ranged from Rs 80-120 crore each and formed a negligible portion of these sectors’ total exports.
CRISIL Ratings does not expect any material impact on the credit profiles of Indian companies engaged in business with Venezuelan customers, given their limited exposure. However, the ratings agency said it will continue to monitor developments closely.
The assessment comes at a time of political uncertainty in Venezuela, with the acting government under Delcy Rodríguez maintaining its position while the US government has indicated varying intentions for Venezuela’s future governance.
On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a military operation in Caracas and captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. The operation involved over 200 U.S. special operations forces and resulted in the capture of both individuals, who were transported to New York to face narcoterrorism charges.
Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello stated that more than 100 people were killed during the operation, while Cuba announced that 32 of its citizens were killed during the mission. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as acting president on January 5, 2026.
The operation followed months of planning and escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela. The raid was condemned by numerous countries, including some U.S. allies, with questions raised about its legality under international law.