New Delhi: The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the UAE-based intergovernmental organisation promoting renewable energy, is planning to reach out to Australia and Turkey, the COP31 presidency team, with a proposal to develop a global roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels.
IRENA’s director general Francesco La Camera conveyed the agency’s plan to representatives of the 170 member states at the recently concluded 16th Assembly.
La Camera told reporters, “What has been discussed at Belem is the roadmap for transition from fossil fuels. We will try to come to an agreement with the Turkish and Australian presidency of the COP for IRENA to present a proposal on this.” While it is still early days, the IRENA chief provided a sense of the nature of the roadmap. Addressing the opening plenary, La Camera said that without a dramatic change of the actual trajectory, the 1.5-degree goal “will slip out of reach.”
This change in trajectory, he said, would be the essential focus of the agency’s work and its report, the Energy Transitions Outlook 2026, and the annual report tracking progress towards the goal of tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, as countries agreed at COP28 in 2023. This work, he said, “would include electrification targets and a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels for consideration at COP31 in Antalya.” IRENA’s approach of “a possible target consistent with the roadmap on electrification” is in keeping with the agency’s advocacy of electrification as the pathway for decarbonisation.
La Camera’s plan to develop this roadmap comes close on the heels of Australia’s Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s comment that he plans to lobby countries that have been opposing it, such as Saudi Arabia, for a roadmap to transition from fossil fuels.
Bowen, who will serve as “president of negotiations” for COP31, is clear that it is not enough to have a “jamboree of the willing… We need to have a COP which really tries to cross some of those bridges that have been very difficult to cross in recent COPs.
At COP30 in Belem, Brazil, some 80 countries supported the idea of a roadmap to transition from fossil fuels, even though countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and others opposed the idea. As part of the final agreement, the COP30 presidency said it would work on the preparation of a roadmap for countries to consider when the climate talks resume in Antalya, Turkey.
Experts say that India, which was not vocal on the issue at Belem, is cautious as coal continues to be an important energy source for the country. At COP22 in Sharm El-Sheikh, India led the effort to include an acknowledgement that countries need to “phase down the use of all fossil fuels.” However, India does not favour binding targets for the transition.
IRENA’s approach of a roadmap, including targets, that is consistent with electrification of the economy, rather than one predicated on fossil fuel targets, would be in keeping with India’s position. As the current BRICS presidency, India could work with IRENA to develop a consensus among the member states. The BRICS members include petrostates such as Saudi Arabia, and other countries that have pushed back on the idea of a roadmap to transition from fossil fuels.
In 2023, IRENA, in partnership with the India G20 presidency, prepared a detailed analysis on the financing and necessary investment required to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency rates by 2030. The roadmap prepared by the renewable energy agency provided the basis for the G20 leaders to adopt these goals at the New Delhi Summit.
The approach adopted by IRENA and championed by the India G20 presidency focused on phasing in renewable energy and improving energy efficiency to displace fossil fuels. This approach made it possible for the G20 countries to get on board and later ensure its adoption as part of the outcome of the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement, the UAE Consensus at the UN climate meet in Dubai in 2023.>
