Electric vehicles are likely to make up 85 per cent of new car sales in the EU from 2035, based on its plans to drop an effective ban on new combustion-engine models, although that share could drop as low as 50 per cent, clean transport advocacy group T&E said.
Under pressure from carmakers, the European Commission in December proposed a 90 per cent cut in CO2 emissions in 2035 from 2021 levels, instead of zero for all new cars and vans.
T&E has criticised the EU’s biggest retreat from its green policies in years, saying the proposals will allow continued sales of high CO2-emitting vehicles, while Chinese producers race further ahead in battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
The European Commission said in December that its plans would support sales of EVs in the EU and save vehicle makers 2.1 billion euros ($2.5 billion) over three years, freeing up resources for innovation and new electric models.
In a report published on Tuesday, T&E said carmakers could sell anywhere between 5 per cent and 50 per cent of non-BEVs after 2035, the lowest share based on a carmaker continuing to sell high emissions internal combustion engine cars, the highest share if it sells the most efficient extended-range plug-in hybrids.
T&E said the most likely figure was 15 per cent, with sales of some combustion engine and some plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Together with an extended time period to comply with 2030 targets, the report said car CO2 emissions would be 10 per cent higher between 2025 and 2050 than under current tighter rules.
T&E said there was also a risk of further weakening of rules when the proposals came up for debate in the European Parliament and in the Council, the grouping of EU governments.
Both will need to approve the changes.>
