VW commercial vehicle board member Renschler (left) and Otto board member Schiebur (r).
“The future belongs to the autonomous truck,” say the experts.
(Photo: Traton AG)
Munich has his cigarettes VWTruck boss Andreas Renschler at the double interview with Otto-Vorstand Kay Schiebur exceptionally waived. Needless to say: After the conversation, Schiebur had him invite them to smoke together. Previously, they talked to the Handelsblatt but the future of their industries. They will be closer together in the future.
Mr. Renschler, Mr. Schiebur, the transport of goods is facing a dramatic change. New actors like Tesla push into the business, at the same time show Amazon and other companies that packages can also be delivered by drone. Will we see trucks in the streets in 10 or 15 years? Renschler: That’s what I’m counting on. (laughs) Slam: Over the period, trucks will still be the backbone of the logistics chain. But the traffic will change. We will see autonomous vehicles,
Will not drones more and more take over the transport of goods by air? The roads are already overloaded today.Renschler: The need for logistics services will increase and as long as we do not invent the beaming, we will work on the existing transport solutions, ie Trucks and delivery vans, This will eventually include drones.Schiebur: We will of course have to find new solutions. We’ve already experimented with robots at Hermes to cover the last mile to the customer. Ultimately, he will also decide which way his order can come to him.Renschler: No matter which solution chooses, we need an infrastructure for it. I mean not only roads, trains or waterways, but also the network infrastructure. For this we have to invest as a society.
Mr Renschler, you and other manufacturers have made the promise that the vehicles will be autonomous, ie without drivers. When will we see this in real use? Renschler: We still test these vehicles – the development is technically very demanding. Keep in mind that such a vehicle is not only on a beautiful summer day, but also in snowstorm or autumn storm. The use in real operation will be done piece by piece. Initially, a driver will have to sit behind the wheel, which will then be relieved in the course of development. When the vehicle drives autonomously, I can not call a specific date today. That depends on much more than the technical feasibility. But one thing is certain: the future belongs to the autonomous truck. Schiebur: We observe this ambition very precisely. This will ultimately be a sustainable change for our business. First we will see autonomous vehicles in long-distance traffic, then in local distribution. Driving through a city is very complicated.
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What will we see at the Commercial Vehicles IAA, which will be opened next week in Hanover? Renschler: Some. At the IAA, we will be showing all TRATON brands and partners under one roof for the first time – in Hall 12. This year’s focus is on completely alternative drive systems and new concepts for urban delivery. But we will also prove our leadership in automated driving and digital services. Already today, more than 450,000 vehicles of the TRATON brands are fully networked.
Ultimately, you are dependent on this technique. Already today, Hermes, the post office and other logisticians are leaving the drivers behind.Schiebur: The subject of drivers has driven us as an industry for years. By the year 2025, the deficiency in city center logistics alone will be 100,000, while in long-distance transport there will be another need for 200,000 drivers. For this, we have to find a solution because the customer demands more flexibility from us in the future. With digitization, we will be able to give the consumer the opportunity to reroute the package on the day of delivery. That’s an extra effort. An essential solution to this problem is autonomous driving.
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Renschler: Some regions, such as China and the US, will be faster in autonomous driving because these countries are more open to change. In the end we will be in Germany have a fully networked system, in which a product can be transported without intermediate storage from production to the consumer. On some defined routes, autonomous driving makes perfect sense. In complex traffic, however, things will not go as fast as partially proclaimed.
In the business, size is an important indicator, especially if the competitors are financially strong and extremely flexible. How does the Otto Group against heavyweights like Amazon or Alibaba Slam: The answer to this question will ultimately be the consumer. To strengthen our position, we are investing hundreds of millions in our Internet platforms. I do not worry that we have a disadvantage in competing against the companies mentioned. And consider: Amazon or Zalando are competitors for us – but they are also big customers of Hermes. So we also benefit from their business,
Otto has a broad base with more than 100 individual companies. But are the individual areas of your group alone strong enough or do you need a partner? Schiebur: The Otto Group opens itself to particularly high-growth companies for cooperation and for partners. An example is our fashion platform About You.
… in which recently the Danish clothing company Besteller participated. Recently, there were rumors that Otto Hermes wants to open for third-party participation. Shchur: I would not comment on that.Renschler: Everyone in this environment must look for partners. We as Germans have to get rid of the fact that we want to work on each topic alone. Smart partnerships make us faster and avoid missing out on important developments.
How do you tackle this topic at Traton? Renschler: We try to understand the whole chain from production to the end customer. For this we are working on platforms through which such a delivery can be handled. Large companies today often have their own fleets, but these are becoming less and less. Networking can help us make logistics more efficient.
How exactly is that supposed to look like? “Renschler: Mr. Schiebur with the Otto Group does not care whether a parcel is delivered by ship, train or lorry, as long as his customer is satisfied. There we can help by networking. Throughout Europe, we have a fleet of around 400,000 vehicles, the data of which we collect with the consent of our customers. For example, we can tell you where a truck is and how much it has loaded. On the basis of this, we are looking for opportunities for customers to transport goods faster and to better utilize their vehicles. Everyone profits from it, and especially the consumer.
Is this an aid to your business, Mr. Schiebur? Slider: Yes, of course. We need to start thinking of the customer and designing the supply chain to be satisfied. In the future, he will be able to decide even more on how he wants to be supplied. Creating this flexibility becomes a very important differentiator.
They talk about a growing cargo volume. Will that be on the existing infrastructure? Renschler: I’m not assuming that. We need additional investment in infrastructure. Not only in roads, railways, air and waterways, but also in communications networks. We need to be able to exchange data for the networking of logistics chains and vehicles. In addition, as an industry, manufacturer and logistics industry, we need to engage in dialogue with politics. We need a round table with everyone involved, the federal government, the federal states and the municipalities. Schiebur: There must also be talk about the charging infrastructure. For the upcoming electrification of the fleets the previous one is not known.
When is the point reached where the existing system no longer works? Renschler: The infrastructure is already at its limit. The railways as well as the freight forwarders can not easily take over additional freight volumes cost-effectively. Alone with the expected doubling of the package volume for private households by the year 2025, the system will not work anymore. To prevent that, we have to talk and act now.
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What makes you so sure that you recognize the trends? The post office, as one of the major freight forwarders, had to build an electric van on its own, because none of the established manufacturers was capable of doing so.Renschler: Looking back, that’s the way to say it. At the time, we were very heavy on the subject of electrification as an industry. We’ve learned from it. Today we can recognize trends better and react faster, also because we have become more open to partnerships.
Mr Schiebur, new suppliers are coming onto the market with electrification. Did you do that? TeslaSemi already looked at? Slider: The model of Tesla is not yet available. But we will use the first pilot in long-distance traffic at very short notice. We will use an electric truck between two Hermes distribution centers. I am glad that there are now the first models. However, we work across manufacturers, so we are not limited to one brand. Renschler: The opportunities for electric trucks are still limited on the long-haul route. They actually replace the charge capacity of heavy batteries. And it works only on fixed routes, but not if a vehicle breaks up on not previously defined long trips.
Do you fear the competition from Tesla Renschler: The model is actually not yet available. Basically, every newcomer is good, because it enlivens the competition.
Why is electrification so slow? Especially for the forwarders, this technique would have to be well manageable.Renschler: That’s not the way it is. For example, we hold intensive talks with the operators of refuse vehicles. It is surprising how different the requirements are. In a city, they manage to drive electrically. In another, the unloading is 100 kilometers away, because it is not electric. We need solutions that are tailored exactly to the needs of our customers.
Renschler: With the inadequate charging infrastructure, long journeys in Germany or even abroad are unthinkable. Operations are possible as described by Mr. Schiebur, where an e-truck commutes between two fixed locations.
How tall is he Proportion of electric vehicles Schiebur: Our goal is to electrify our fleet in 80 major German cities by the year 2025. At the moment we are in the test phase, with models of VW and Mercedes. The backbone of our delivery is the classic diesel van at the moment.
Is the electric drive more economical than the conventional combustor? Slip: Without government support, the change from a purely economic point of view is currently not worthwhile. The diesel remains the most cost-effective solution. But it is important to make the transition.
Probably because driving bans for diesel threaten in many cities.Schiebur: Whether these prohibitions actually fulfill their purpose, I have my doubts. As shown in Hamburg, the traffic only differs from the routes that are closed to diesel vehicles. So bans do not help.Renschler: A ban on delivery vans is nonsense. How should consumers get their packages today and now? It is not without reason that deliverers in London are exempt from the entry ban. Here, too, we have to get decision-makers from politics, public authorities and industry around the table and talk – today and not tomorrow.