There will be no miracle. The fall of diesel in the Hexagon will cause breakage on the job. According to the Observatory of Metallurgy, between 10,000 and 15,000 industrial jobs are threatened by 2030, out of the 37,500 in the automotive sector. This is one of the conclusions of his prospective study on employment and skills in the automotive sector, conducted in partnership with the Automotive Platform (PFA) chaired by Luc Chatel.
This is actually the update of a work launched in 2016, requested by the PFA as part of the strategic contract of the sector signed last May with the state. The purpose of this update was “to take into account developments that have occurred since 2016, such as the accelerated drop in sales of diesel vehicles or technological developments in new engines”, explain the authors of the study.
Restructuring and conversion
The acceleration of the fall of diesel has, in fact, something to worry about. Formerly favored by taxation, this engine, which accounted for more than 70% of registrations in 2011, saw its share fall to 47% last year and tumble further to less than 40% this year . According to the benchmark scenario established by the BIPE (a firm of studies and economic prospective) for the Observatory, it would fall even to 13.2% in 2030, in favor of hybrid and electric engines (24.1%).
With heavy consequences on the industry. “In particular, the melting of steel and aluminum, the machining and assembly of mechanical parts specific to diesel engines, such as injection nozzles or crankcases, are directly confronted with decreases in orders from builders “, details the study. The Bosch factory in Rodez (Aveyron), which has already announced restructuring and a desire for partial reconversion, is only one of the sites concerned.
Serious and imminent threat
According to the Observatory, six institutions are already in a “crisis proven to be treated urgently”, and thirty others are “very vulnerable”, under the threat of a “serious threat and imminent”. In total, 5,500 jobs already in a critical situation. If manufacturers arrive at their assembly sites to compensate for diesel engines without too much gasoline engines, their suppliers and their subcontractors may be hit hard.
So far, the good dynamics of the auto market has mitigated the effects of the fall. But “this dynamic will not last,” say the authors of the study. Similarly, the induced job loss will not be offset by the new needs related to so-called “clean” engines, “except to succeed in developing a real European and French battery sector”.
New skills
After a meeting in Bercy on December 20th to review the sector contract, Luc Chatel sounded the alarm. “Support schemes for companies at risk need to be strengthened to help them redefine their industrial strategy and support them in their investments, “insisted the president of the PFA. Public authorities (via Bpifrance, and Future Motor Fund) committed in May to mobilize more than 150 million euros support for investment in companies in the sector.
The study also highlights the new skills that the sector will need in the coming years with the emergence of the electric vehicle, connected and autonomous. It estimates the recruitment needs to 25,000 people per year between 2018 and 2022, including 8,000 engineers, 6,000 technicians and supervisors, and 9,000 workers, with skills in artificial intelligence, big data, power electronics or robotics.