Promising two years ago the end of the sale of petrol or diesel cars by 2040 in France, Nicolas Hulot had set a very ambitious course. The magnitude of the task is measured, in particular, by the proportion of 100% electric engines in the volume of new registrations, whereas, according to the data of the manufacturers, it did not exceed 1.2% in 2017.
The former Minister of the Environment will not be there to lead this “revolution”, in his own words. But a report from the Parliamentary Office for the Evaluation of Scientific and Technological Choices (Opecst) released Wednesday finds that this goal is “achievable”.
The gradual neutralization of the fleet of vehicles with thermal engines could lead to CO2 emissions “divided by five between today and 2040,” says the report. What allow the government to align with its goal of decarbonizing the French economy by 2050. Only the bill should be very heavy for the state. According to this report, still provisional, it could amount to “500 billion euros over twenty years”.
Three cost factors
This overall cost includes three factors. On the one hand, the sum of aid schemes for the purchase of low carbon vehicles (about 10 billion per year). The report includes an extension to 2030 the super-bonus on the purchase of electric vehicles of 6,000 euros, then a move to 3.000 euros after this date.
High infrastructure costs will also be needed to expand the network of public charging stations. Currently, the France has 25,000. The establishment of a fully distributed and well-adapted network across the territory should cost between 30.7 and 108 billion euros over twenty years, depending on the scenarios (pro-battery or pro-hydrogen).
Finally, the loss of revenue for the State linked to the gradual disappearance of taxes on petroleum products (TICPE in particular) is also significant. In 2019, the TICPE should bring 37.7 billion euros in public funds. The decline in tax revenues resulting from the transformation of the French car fleet should be between 10 and 20 billion per year by 2040, according to the report.
Adjustment of the trade balance
If the costs in question are far from negligible, France could nevertheless benefit from this strategy in the long term. This is the case, for example, for the trade balance, which should largely benefit from the decline in hydrocarbon imports.
Opecst expects a drop in consumption of around 80% at the end of the period, which would result in a recovery in the trade balance of nearly 30 to 40 billion euros per year at current oil prices. The report also notes, without quantifying it, indirect gains on health expenditure related to reducing the health impact of pollution.