By accelerating suddenly on the electric, Herbert Diess gives cold sweats to the equipment manufacturers. The boss of Volkswagen announced last week that the giant with twelve brands (Seat, Skoda, Audi, Porsche …) would focus on the electric at the expense of other technologies, forcing with him the whole branch to follow movement. And so to engage more quickly the abandonment of the engine, on which the automobile has prospered for decades.
“Until recently there was little consensus among German equipment manufacturers about a certain technological openness. It has just been attacked by Volkswagen, “commented Stefan Bratzel, director of the Bergisch Gladbach University’s Center for Automobile Management.
This abrupt acceleration revived the prospect of job cuts among subcontractors who hoped to have more time to negotiate such a shift.
Because the construction of an electric vehicle requires less manpower in factories. Stefan Bratzel estimates that in the engine segment, German equipment manufacturers could lose 15% of their jobs by 2030, or 45,000 jobs out of a total of about 300,000, if the electric becomes more important.
50,000 diesel jobs at Bosch
Most subcontractors have not yet announced major reductions in their workforce. Schaeffler, who is very dependent on the engine, recently announced the loss of 900 jobs while Leoni pulled out 2,000 jobs. But the three largest equipment manufacturers in the country, Continental, Bosch and ZF have decided nothing. But if they are more positioned on the electric car, connected or autonomous, they will still reduce the wing, or even part with their traditional activities.
Bosch must manage the decline of diesel, while nearly 50,000 jobs internally depend on this technology neglected by consumers. The group has already cut 600 jobs last year in two German sites, and its French plant in Rodez (Aveyron) which manufactures injectors for diesel engines and employs 1,500 employees, is also in the sights of the leaders.
ZF will not be able to rely more on its great specialty, the transmission systems, very simplified on electric vehicles. However, the group invested in the hybrid and purchase of the American TRW reinforced it on the autonomous car.
Continental anticipates partially float its division dedicated to engines to deal with the upheavals ahead.
In France, Valeo unveiled a major savings plan in February, but without giving any impact on the workforce. Faurecia and Plastic Omnium did not make any announcements.
Consolidation
The situation is more problematic for the 2,000 to 3,000 German equipment manufacturers with fewer than 500 employees, emphasizes Stefan Bratzel. Small producers of parts for thermal cars or exhaust gas treatment specialists who can quickly find themselves in trouble.
“Their sales figures will not fall overnight, but future investments will stop, these companies will not get any more money from the banks. They will have to think about alternatives and not all will succeed, “says the expert, who is counting on a strong consolidation of the sector. In France, similarly, the Metallurgy Observatory estimated that 10,000 to 15,000 jobs are threatened by the decline of diesel.