The automobile is a business of cycles, and some are more exciting than others. After a few years of thinning that allowed the Hexagon to return to the European podium of car production , France will know a brutal blow of stop next year. The level of production of all automotive plants will fall by 22% in 2020, according to IHS data compiled for “Les Echos”.
About 1.7 million vehicles will be machined next year, more than half the 2004 record. The level will stabilize from 2021 around two million, 200,000 cars less than this year or year. latest. “A number of plant program shift changes are coming in at the same time in 2020,” says Denis Schemoul, a forecasting specialist at IHS. Everything falls at the same time, to tell the truth, since the European and world markets have been coming back in recent quarters.
Offshore Programs
To clarify, the dynamics of sales in Europe should cost 100,000 vehicles at the factory France. But the main contributor to the decline is called PSA according to IHS estimates. The Peugeot 2008, currently assembled in Mulhouse, will pass the Pyrenees to land in Vigo on the occasion of a new version (-146,000 units), the balance of the Peugeot 208 will spin in Morocco (-98,000 cars) and Opel Grandland X will release Sochaux for Germany (70,000 vehicles). At Renault, the new Clio will no longer be produced at Flins, which should burden 41,000 vehicles the volumes of the plant.
Foreign manufacturers installed industrially in the Hexagon will not change the trend printed by Renault and PSA. In Moselle, Smart is converted to electric, which will initially result in a drop in assembly volumes of 37,000 units next year – a good third of total production. Toyota is an exception, but the yard of the Japanese plant of the Valenciennes factory, which will increase by 50,000 vehicles the production capacity of the site – bringing it all to 300,000 units – will not be effective next year.
After the air hole next year, French production should rise a little – to settle around two million units. “Renault will stay at around 600 or 700,000 units a year. To go down, it would be necessary to close a factory. The decline at PSA is quite structural, the volume should stabilize around one million vehicles, “says Denis Schemoul. Carlos Tavares, the boss of the Peugeot house, has just opened a large factory in Morocco. In fact, over the last two years, the historic Sochaux plant was operating at a historic rate of over 500,000 annual cars, a pace that could not be maintained for too long.
To note
Global production of cars is expected to decline by 2% this year and rebound by 3% next year, according to LMC Automotive.