Amid the fury and bombast, Ghosn’s case deserves proper examination



Carlos Ghosn, live from Lebanon, put on an entertaining show. There was bombast, arm-waving and undisguised fury. “My unimaginable ordeal is the result of a handful of unscrupulous, vindictive individuals,” said the former Renault-Nissan chairman, naming half a dozen Nissan executives whom he alleges plotted his downfall and arrest in Tokyo. Naturally, Ghosn wouldn’t address the most intriguing detail of how he managed to jump bail and board a private jet out of Japan. He may never provide the details.

He did, however, say this: “You can expect me to take some initiative to tell you how I’m going to clear my name, what kind of forum I’m going to use.” And also this: “I am ready to stand trial anywhere that will give me a fair trial.” Both are important promises because this extraordinary case deserves to be examined properly somewhere.

Ghosn’s account of why he fled Japan will – and should – provoke sympathy. He is not the first person to point to the country’s conviction rate of 99% and describe the judicial system as one of “hostage justice”. For his part, Ghosn says he was interrogated for eight hours at a time without a lawyer present. His view that Nissan and Japanese officials resented creeping Renault control over the automotive empire, and that politics is central to understanding the tale, is widely shared.

Yet the specific allegation by Japanese prosecutors that Ghosn understated his income by $80m (£61m) cannot be wished away. On that score, he revealed little in his press conference beyond a hard-to-follow account of the mix of personal and business guests at a now-famous lavish party at the Palace of Versailles. His bluster about how the share prices of Nissan and Renault have fallen since his arrest should be treated as irrelevant.

It is hard to know which country would meet Ghosn’s definition of a territory where he could receive a fair trial but, at this point in the saga, the onus is really on him to suggest a few. In the end, that is more important than whether he escaped in a box.

Anglo’s financial muscle brings a Sirius opportunity

Anglo American was on almost nobody’s radar as a potential saviour of Sirius Minerals’ planned fertiliser mine under the North York Moors. Anglo’s “Anglo” assets these days comprise only a swish global head office in Carlton House Terrace in London and a De Beers jewellery shop on Bond Street. Digging for copper in Peru seemed to be its top priority.

But, actually, Anglo, if the proposed £386m takeover of Sirius proceeds, seems a near-perfect owner of the North Yorkshire polyhalite project. It is a FTSE 100 company with former fertiliser experience that brings something Sirius, on its own, could never quite achieve – financial muscle.

This may feel infuriating to Chris Fraser, Sirius’s chief executive who has plugged away for nine years. His vision for the mine near Whitby, and his analysis that polyhalite has the potential to disrupt the potash market, has now been endorsed by one of the world’s big mining companies. Yet Sirius would be sold at a bombed-out share price of 5.5p a share, versus 35p in the autumn of 2018. Some £1bn has been spent on construction but Anglo isn’t even paying half that sum.

Unfair? Unfortunately for Fraser – and sadly for thousands of retail punters who invested in Sirius at far higher share prices – the story is typical in the mining world. Visionary stuff isn’t easy, but financing is usually trickier. Even Sirius’s pared-back development plan imagined spending another $3bn-plus to complete two large shafts and a 23-mile underground tunnel and conveyor belt to get the ore to Teesside. It’s hard to get that bundle of risks financed when you’re a corporate tiddler and there’s no whiff of positive cashflow for years.

In the end, the task proved impossible. The UK government said no to loan guarantees last year and the junk bond market declined to provide the last chunk of cash. Administration was possible at the end of March if nothing changed.

Fraser can console himself that his pet project may now finally be built, but that’s not the same as personal glory and fortune. To rub fertiliser into the wound, City analysts are now punning about a “Sirius opportunity” for Anglo; the old gag was that Fraser’s ambition was so bold it could not be taken Siriusly.

From the UK government’s point of view, though, everything has worked out splendidly. The polyhalite mine is big and northern, so fits the “levelling up” mantra, and could soon have a top-tier owner. One hopes Anglo at least gives Fraser a walk-on role.

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