Is the idea of battery swapping dead?
“No, but it does require standardisation, so that every car has the same battery – or at least enough do. In China, battery swap works for Shanghai’s taxis – and it’s possible because the government buys a lot of the same vehicle from a car maker that it part-owns in order to make standardisation happen.
“Now, it’s too early to call whether that sort of situation could dominate – but it could be something that is more exciting than fast charging in the long term. My suspicion is that both will be used for different applications.
“And there’s another perspective to consider, too: battery swapping for two-wheelers. Through our partnership with Reliance in India, we are ramping up something along these lines. It’s going well and we are looking to expand it in China, Indonesia, Vietnam, those kinds of markets. It has a role to play.”
You mentioned hydrogen earlier. Where do hydrogen and e-fuels fit?
“Most vehicles will electrify, but the largest heavy-duty trucks are likely to have a more compelling cost point with hydrogen. Going up a long Austrian hill on electricity is probably a tough ask – and it’s an area hydrogen can deliver. E-fuels are tough. The economics aren’t there, in that they’re expensive to produce right now, and they don’t resolve tailpipe emissions. I see it as a more viable solution for keeping the world flying, but in a more environmentally conscious way.”
Do you have a timeline to an end point for car ownership?
“Nobody knows, but the growth in ride hailing and subscription models is exponential. We partner with Didi, the global ride hailing company. The valuation is between $65 billion and $100bn and its year-on-year growth rate is phenomenal.
“And the space is getting more exciting because all ride-hailers will have to be electrified, so they will need to charge those vehicles up. And if 65% of city journeys go, as predicted, to ride hailing, then you’ll start to see vehicles designed specifically for the purpose. There’s a huge shake-up playing out.”