This is the time of the year, where hundreds of articles are written and numerous talk shows held, forecasting the ensuing year. Let us take a stock of the learnings from the year gone by, and what is possibly in store for the near future.
How did 2021 do?
• The pandemics covered the whole world with signs of its end giving everyone new hope. But, in came Delta variant, and now the world is getting overwhelmed by Omicron, which seems to be a very contagious virus.
• Most central banks pumped in loads of money to prop up their respective economies; result: inflationary pressure and booming stock markets.
• Technology showed up in a big way. Almost anything to do with tech, depicted aspiration and belief of new ways of doing business.
• However, the tech companies showed two sides of the story. While the Chinese tech companies lost $1 trillion in their market value last year, but the America’s five largest tech giants added almost $2.5 trillion.
• Start-ups have been the flavour of the year. Billions of dollars poured into new ventures, bringing loads of expectation and optimism.
• India showed great promise with economic growth bouncing back. Second quarter (July to Sept) showed a growth of 8 percent against a contraction of 7 percent in the same period of the previous year.
What’s likely to be in store in 2022?
• The pandemics is not going to vanish. The omicron variant will diminish but new mutations are most likely to come. Unmasking masks seems still a distant dream.
• ESG will start playing much more important role, with stronger guidelines forcing businesses to be more responsible. The greenhouse commitments at the COP26 climate summit, will necessarily have to be passed down to the businesses. Corporate frauds will get harsher sanctions with more and more managerial-perpetrators being put behind the bars.
• China is a big black box. One, its political ambitions may push skirmishes near many international borders, including ours. Two, its crackdown on the so called unethical economic activities may continue to hurt its economy, though they are likely to recoil its adversarial stance sooner than later.
• Technology will continue to be the flavour of the year, with new ideas and fresh funding success stories will keep going round. Governments will continue its loose money policy, so projects with promise and prospect will get funding.
• Web3 could see some new breakthrough applications. Its collection of blockchain-based technologies that support a more decentralised version of the web, where the users, rather than giant tech companies, may gain control.
• Crypto-currency, the new baby of the tech world, is likely to be put under shackles. The governments cannot afford to have a parallel monetary econ-system to be developed outside its central banking controls. So, investors in Bitcoin-type currencies, beware!
• Blockchain related work will continue, though its initial hope of a great technological break-through is yet to fructify (barring the speculative crypto world).
• Artificial intelligence and big data will make more and more inroads in our way of doing business and satisfying customer needs. While robotics will continue to be worked upon, India is unlikely to be majorly affected as cheaper labour costs does not yet justify the investments in machines taking over human jobs.
• India will continue to grow well with near double digit GDP growth (most economists are forecasting a 9 percent growth, and I feel it could be breached).
Probable risks?
• Further outbreak of the pandemics beyond the vaccination cure could derail many a plan;
• Chinese overambitions and a probable war; Same with Russian aspirations in Ukraine;
• Global warming creating severe natural catastrophes;
• Oil price hike due to Iran nuclear skirmish, UAE and S Arabia tension, or US additional supply optimism crashing;
• Shortage of drinking water creating severe human distress in certain parts.
In short, we are likely to be heading for an optimistic year, with India possibly riding fast and furious. Don’t be surprised to see a near double-digit economic growth, and India slowly asserting itself as a global economic and political super power. The world’s economic yo-yo is also likely to stabilise, though risks abound. But it is playing the unplayable, that makes our lives more challenging, doesn’t it?
About the Author: Robin Banerjee is Managing Director, Caprihans India Ltd. He has authored three non-fiction business books: ‘Who Cheats and How’, ‘Who Blunders and How?’, and ‘Corporate Frauds: Business Crimes Now Bigger, Broader, Bolder’.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are solely of the authors and ETCFO.com does not necessarily subscribe to it. ETCFO.com shall not be responsible for any damage caused to any person/ organisation directly or indirectly.
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