Posted on Dec. 2021 at 15:37
Fog. At the end of 2021, few experts ventured to make predictions for the automotive market in 2022. “I started to practice forecasting in 1995, it has never been as complicated as this year! “, Advances Eric Champarnaud, founding partner of the C-Ways firm.
“If we really have to give a figure, assuming a normalization of the market in mid-2022, we can hope that sales of new cars will go back to 1.75 million units in France over the year,” continues- he. This would represent a growth of 6% compared to 2021, at a level however still much lower of 20% than that of 2019 (2.21 million).
Many uncertainties
Flavien Neuvy, director of the Cetelem Observatory, has decided to refrain from publishing a figure for 2022. “There are so many uncertainties that we would necessarily be denied, in one direction or the other”, he admits. Similarly François Roudier, at the Automotive Platform, prefers to wait a few months before taking the risk.
The main unknown, which baffles automotive experts, is that of the supply chains of manufacturers, in particular on semiconductors . “We read everything and its opposite on electronic components,” notes François Roudier. “Not even to mention steel and plastics, which are also subject to great stress”.
In addition to these doubts about the capacity to produce vehicles, there are growing doubts about the appetite of households for new cars, while rising price and the perplexity in the face of the choice of an engine are also beginning to weigh on sales.
The most optimistic want to believe that demand will remain strong. “At cruising speed, around 2 million new cars are sold per year. Over the past two years, 700,000 cars have failed the market, a delay that will have to be made up. There is incredible rebound potential! “Advance Flavien Neuvy. Experts point out that the automotive market is traditionally perfectly correlated with economic growth.
Rebound potential
While the question of a structural slowdown arises for individuals, businesses and short-term rental companies On the other hand, should actually participate in the market rebound when the supply will be there again. “They were unable to renew their fleets to meet their expectations last year, due to shortages,” underlines Flavien Neuvy. “The big question is timing.” No expert forecasts any real improvement at this stage before the second half of 2022.
Before Christmas, analysts at IHS had indicated that they were expecting the global market to rebound by 4% this year, to 82 million units, predicting a return to the 2019 level (90 million) only in 2023. In Europe , where the crisis was more pronounced than elsewhere in 2020, the level of 2019 would not however, according to them, not be found before 2024 – at best.