When I think about what Tesla’s upcoming 2022 year is going to look like, I think it will revolve around growth, much like 2021. But there will also be a renewed focus on securing battery cells in an even more competitive landscape.
Gigafactory Shanghai has proven to have plenty of room to grow, and it has become Tesla’s new main export hub.
The automaker entered 2021 with a production rate of about 700,000 vehicles per year, and it looks like it’s about to exit 2021 with a production rate of over 1 million vehicles per year.
Tesla launched the new Model S and Model X in 2021 and added a bunch of new features to its existing lineup, but it didn’t really unveil or launch a whole new product.
I think 2022 is not going to be as much about new products for Tesla either.
There’s a chance that the company will unveil its $25,000 model and launch the Cybertruck, but if either of those things happens, it is going to be toward the end of the year, and it’s not going to have much impact on Tesla in 2022.
I think Tesla’s 2022 is going to be about growth again with the start and ramp-up of production at both Gigafactory Texas and Gigafactory Berlin.
The automaker’s most important goal in 2022 is going to be achieving the highest production volume possible at those factories while maintaining good gross margins and efficiency.
While new products are not going to be an area of focus, in my opinion, you could argue that the growth is going to come from a new product. The Model Y that Tesla plans to produce at those two new factories is basically going to be a whole new version of the car, powered by Tesla’s new 4680 cells.
And it means that, for Tesla, 2022 is also going to be about battery cells.
The automaker is looking to become a major manufacturer of battery cells in 2022, which is new for the company.
Tesla has been involved in battery cells for a long time, but it never manufactured them itself until starting production at its 4680 pilot plant in Fremont last year.
In 2022, Tesla looks to expand into massive volume production of those 4680 battery cells at Gigafactory Texas and Gigafactory Berlin simultaneously.
The automaker is still buying as many battery cells as it can from suppliers, but I believe its own cell production in 2022 is going to be a difference-maker.
I think also think we will also see a focus on securing the raw materials to produce those cells.
Increased production from existing nickel, lithium, and graphite mining companies and mines is not going to be enough in the next few years, and we are going to need a lot more production to come online.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tesla get more involved with off-take agreements to help finance new projects. The automaker has dipped its toes in this area before, but it has the potential to have a great impact here in the next few years.
But ultimately, in 2022, we should want to keep an eye on Tesla’s 4680 production volumes, which I’d like to see reach an annual rate of 50 GWh by the end of the year and an overall vehicle production capacity of two million vehicles.
As CEO Elon Musk often points out, manufacturing is the most difficult thing, which means that Tesla is going to face a lot of challenges in trying to achieve both of these goals.
Our Tesla reporting in 2022 is likely to focus a lot on how the company is trying to overcome these goals.
Tesla “side projects” in 2022
Now you could argue that calling any of these “side projects” is extremely diminutive – and you would be right.
Some billion-dollar companies are built around delivering competitive products to those of Tesla’s “side projects.”
But the way I see it is that Tesla’s biggest impact is in accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles, which it achieves through producing compelling electric vehicles in higher volumes than anyone.
Therefore, in 2022, delivering over 1 million (probably closer to 1.5 million) Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, as well as building the supply chains to support even more electric vehicle production, will be the most impactful things.
That said, Tesla is also going to make progress on other projects, like Full Self-Driving.
The automaker made a lot of progress on that front in 2021, and I think 2022 will be similar. I don’t think 2022 is the year Tesla will deliver on its promise with FSD, but it could start to get close.
Tesla Semi is also likely going to be a more important product in 2022, but I don’t think Tesla will be ready to produce it in significant volume until 2023 – when its own battery cell production starts to achieve higher volume.
As previously mentioned, Tesla has been guiding a start of production for Cybertruck in 2022, but if it’s going to happen, it will be very late in the year. I think 2023 is going to be the big year for Cybertruck.
As for the Roadster, we might see a new prototype in 2022, but I doubt production will begin until 2023.
The new $25,000 Tesla might see a prototype unveiling too, which is likely to be a massive news event, but it’s something that won’t reach production until 2024-25.
I think we are also going to see some other surprises in 2022, but the meat will be Model 3 and Model Y growth with a battery cell production ramp.
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