Am Rande des Weltwirtschaftsforums in Davos trafen sich Handelsblatt-Chefredakteur Sebastian Matthes und VW-Chef Herbert Diess für eine Podcast-Aufnahme: Es war ein Gespräch über das Engagement des Autobauers in China, den Zustand der Weltwirtschaft – und das Geschäftsmodell Deutschlands.Herr Diess, das wichtigste Thema auf dem Weltwirtschaftsforum (WEF) war der kritische Zustand der Weltwirtschaft. Ökonomen haben vor einem Zerbrechen der Welt in Machtblöcke gewarnt, Unternehmen beklagen anhaltend gerissene Lieferketten. Teilen Sie die pessimistische Einschätzung? Angesichts der geopolitischen Lage gibt es durchaus Grund zur Sorge. Wir müssen aber zwischen den kurzfristigen und den langfristigen Entwicklungen unterscheiden. Einige Ökonomen und CEOs fürchten einen „perfekten Sturm“. Mit Blick auf die nächsten Monate können wir die Situation managen.
Also teilen Sie die Sorge vieler Ökonomen nicht, die die Welt auf eine Stagflation zusteuern sehen, auf eine Phase niedriger Wachstumsraten und hoher Inflation? Ich hoffe, dass es nicht dazu kommt. Aber gerade in Europa werden wir die Auswirkungen des Krieges zu spüren bekommen. Für Deutschland geht es um die Frage der Energieversorgung. Die andere Dimension ist die geopolitische, und die ist eher langfristig.
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Das heißt? Die Frage ist, ob wir wieder eine Blockbildung erleben, ob wir zurückgehen in eine Zeit der Abschottung, geschlossenen Grenzen und beschränkten Reisemöglichkeiten. Zudem gibt es Anzeichen dafür, dass sich der Konflikt um die Technologievorherrschaft zwischen den USA und China weiter zuspitzt.
Was ist das dann für eine Welt? Als wir jung waren, konnten wir nicht mal eben nach Sankt Petersburg fahren. Wir hatten kaum Kontakte, konnten nicht nach China. Die Welt war verschlossen, kleiner, und sie hat sich langsamer entwickelt. Ich fürchte, dass wir uns nun wieder mit solchen Szenarien beschäftigen müssen.
Insbesondere für Deutschland sind das schlechte Nachrichten, eine Wirtschaft, die wie kaum eine andere vom Außenhandel abhängt. Für Deutschland ist das ein extrem negatives Szenario, das wäre auch eine Gefahr für das deutsche Geschäftsmodell. Denn Deutschland lebt von einer offenen Welt, vom Export, vom Handel, vom Zugang zu Rohstoffen. In einer abgeschotteten Welt würden wir uns langsamer entwickeln als andere Regionen und nicht mehr die Rolle spielen, die wir heute aufgrund unserer Wirtschaftskraft haben.
Was meinen Sie damit? Wir bestimmen deshalb mit, weil wir eine bedeutende, angesehene Nation sind, die in China und den USA investiert ist. Wenn diese Bedeutung abnimmt, nimmt auch unser Einfluss ab.
Muss die Wirtschaft dabei auch moralische Kompromisse machen?Wir müssen moralische Kompromisse machen. Wir können, wir sollten sie nicht bei unserem Anspruch machen. Wir verteidigen unsere Ideale zu Recht. Europa hat das beste Gesellschaftssystem: Menschenrechte, Demokratie, Frieden, Meinungsfreiheit. Wenn die Welt überall so wäre wie in Europa, wäre sie besser. Wir sollten diese Werte mit Vehemenz verteidigen, aber das geht natürlich leichter aus einer Position der wirtschaftlichen Stärke.
>>> Listen to the complete podcast episode here: VW boss Herbert Diess: “We cannot limit ourselves to just working with democracies”
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, it was repeatedly discussed that the global elites had to decide on a “moral change”. We must be role models. But you can’t be a role model based on moral standards alone, you can only do that through economic success. Therefore, we cannot confine ourselves to working or being economically active only with democracies that fully meet our values. That’s a maximum of ten percent of the world’s population.
“Economically, the Xinjiang location is rather insignificant”
In this context, what do you think about reports from China that have once again shown a dramatic picture of the oppression of Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region, where VW also operates a plant? Do you compromise? We have been dealing with Xinjiang for many years. Our joint venture partner, SAIC Volkswagen, has a small factory there. Economically, the location is rather insignificant.
Then you can simply shut down the plant in protest against the Chinese actions. We could. But we don’t do it because we believe that our presence makes a difference.
Excuse me? We travel there, making sure, like everywhere else in the world, that our working standards are enforced, cultural and religious differences are respected. I believe that the presence of SAIC Volkswagen will improve people’s situation.
The vita of Herbert Diess
So far, your presence seems to have had little effect. Does the new research mean nothing to you? Yes of course. Because of our history, we are particularly sensitive to the issues of human rights, civil liberties and freedom of expression. That is why we are very active in enforcing our high standards at our locations. And of course we disapprove of what is happening there. If we had evidence of wrongdoing at our local facility, we would take massive action.
How do you generally assess the situation in China? Some economists fear a recession scenario. I don’t see that. But we are also going through difficult times in China. Over a thousand expats had to endure there. But there are also bright spots.
In view of the ever-new lockdowns you should be pretty much alone with your assessment. Our factories are running again, I expect that the exit restrictions will also be reduced. And I’m confident that we’ll see China ramping up again in a few weeks. The Chinese economy is able to regain its footing relatively quickly.
But car sales have recently fallen in China. The first two months before the Covid restrictions were very good for Volkswagen. We sold four times as many electric cars as in the previous year. There is no reason for pessimism. Growth will slow down somewhat, but there is still a lot of catching up to do. China is still not a rich country in terms of per capita income.
“China will remain the engine of growth”
That sounds like a good deal of purposeful optimism. China will remain the engine of growth. The country has a fantastic education, and there is also relatively equal opportunity. And you can see that the Chinese simply want innovation, progress and more prosperity.
What does this mean for your car business? Although China is already the largest car market in the world, relatively few vehicles are sold in relation to the population. In terms of stock, China has 250 to 300 cars per 1000 inhabitants. In Germany we are around 600, in the USA there are even around 800. These figures alone make it clear that China will remain by far the largest growth market.
How does that fit in with the fact that you earn less and less in China every year? We continue to have the highest revenues, sales and returns in China. We earned well in the first three months of this year. Electrification is also making good progress there. China shouldn’t just be understood as a simple sales market.
Rather? You also have to see the country as a market for the future that will advance the whole world technologically. If you decoupled from China, you decoupled from growth and technological advances.
The debate is actually going in a different direction: has the German economy become too dependent on China? As the market leader in China, we are asked this again and again. I say: No, we are the market leader in the market that is growing the fastest and is the technological leader. And we want to stay that way for as long as possible. In addition, we also want to grow in other regions of the world. For example in the USA, where we currently only have a market share of around four percent.
Herbert Diess with Sebastian Matthes
Sebastian Matthes met the CEO in Davos for the podcast recording.
(Photo: Handelsblatt)
Will the US business push back the importance of China at Volkswagen? Not necessarily. Because we expect China to grow faster than the US.
And how do you see Europe? One of the most important private equity investors in the world recently said: “Europe is too fragmented and too weak.” Do you share this impression? There’s definitely something to it. We are dependent on energy. Militarily, in terms of NATO spending, we are dependent on US protection. And we are also technologically dependent in many areas: we have no tech companies, no big social media. Of the three blocs of Europe, China and the US, Europe is the weakest when it comes to political influence and economic resilience. But we have the best political system, with a diversity that is unique. That’s why we have to think about our own interests. I have to say that I lack European leadership in this endlessly painful war in Ukraine, which is taking place on our doorstep. Economically, too, Europe must become more independent, assert its trading interests and promote innovation and investment in new technologies.
What does this diagnosis mean for VW? The disintegration of the world into power blocs is likely to make business more difficult for international companies. We are a global automotive company, the industry is highly consolidated. If companies in one region are no longer successful, things will also become difficult in other regions. This applies to all of our competitors, including us. A fragmented world would lead to less growth and less innovation. Combating climate change would also be much more difficult. That is why we must defend our European business model and ensure that our companies, which are successful worldwide, remain successful. What I took away from Davos from the statements made by European politicians was that Europe will continue to adhere to an open world order, to a multipolar world with free trade. That makes me positive.
Thank you for the interview.
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