Difficult and expensive engineering solutions might bring plug-in hybrids’ CO2 figures down, such as bigger batteries to extend electric-only range and smaller combustion engines to cut fuel consumption, but one estimate suggests the minimum battery size required might be 30-40kWh, pushing a plug-in very close to an EV’s battery capacity.
And with the EU creating a hostile environment to PHEVs, manufacturers will have to think twice about committing tens of millions of pounds to development, especially with a limited product life beyond 2030, when the EU fleet-average mandate is expected to hit 0g/km.
Consequently, agreeing the numerical value of the UF has been a contentious discussion between green lobbyists, car makers and EU officials, especially given the controversial EU7 emissions regulations, which will push fleet average CO2 down to 42g/km in 2030.
Green lobbyists like Transport and Environment, which has a strong influence in EU legislation, have issued several briefings against PHEVs, including one this March that alleged up to 600,000 fewer EVs were sold in Europe last year because of PHEV sales.
“Delaying implementation of real-world UFs isn’t credible, as PHEVs are a problem now,” it said. “And 2025 is a realistic timeline, as changes to UF don’t require engineering changes. An update to UF simply fixes an erroneous calculation for determining CO2 emissions.”
Car makers are understood to have been surprised that the EU has chosen to hit PHEVs so hard, their expectation having been for a UF about half of that which has been proposed.
The EU’s approach stems from real-world experience that many PHEVs drive more ICE-only miles than forecast when EU6 was introduced in 2015.
Back then, it was assumed that PHEVs would always start their journey with a full battery.
Green lobbyists have mounted a campaign for PHEVs to be hit with higher CO2 ratings ever since suspicions were raised that many PHEV drivers were benefiting from lower tax ratings yet rarely charging up.