Trump’s tariff threats on autos are stoking fears of a German recession

Trump: Will impose more auto tariffs if no deal reached with EU
2:47 PM ET Wed, 20 Feb 2019 | 02:25

A trade war between the United States and Europe is coming and the fallout could tip Germany into recession, according to analysts at German lender Commerzbank.

EU leaders have now agreed to negotiate fresh trade arrangements with Washington but have restricted the talks to industrial goods only. That scope of debate is likely to irk President Donald Trump who is under pressure from Congress to win access to EU agriculture markets.

In February, Trump said he would impose tariffs on cars imported from the European Union if U.S. talks with the bloc can't produce a new deal. The EU has since threatened to tax 20 billion euros ($22 billion) worth of U.S. goods.

Both sides have cautiously hung on to existing agreements, promising to take no action until talks are concluded.

In a research report Friday, analysts at Commerzbank said the chances of a trade deal that satisfied both European leaders and U.S. lawmakers looked slim. It noted that France, holding a powerful voice in the corridors of Brussels, had already erected a serious barrier.

“President (Emmanuel) Macron has already voted against opening negotiations with the U.S. because the U.S. is no longer participating in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement,” noted Commerzbank.

The bank said on the other side of the ledger, U.S. Congress has made it clear that it will not rubberstamp any agreement that excludes agriculture — a tricky proposition given many EU nations fiercely protect prices paid to their farmers.

“It is therefore likely that Donald Trump will announce the imposition of duties — probably at rates of 25% — on imports of autos and auto parts from the EU,” said Commerzbank.

Official German statistics supplemented by the bank's own research show that in 2018, the United States was the top export destination for German cars, accounting for about 12% of the total with a value of 27 billion euros of parts or finished vehicles.

The bank estimated that a Trump-ordered tariff increase of 25 percentage points on EU auto imports would slash that figure for Germany down to around 14 billion euros per annum.

When factoring in how much of that export figure is actual German “added value,” the bank estimated that total economic output for the country could fall by around 0.25 percentage points.

“All the more dangerous in a situation where the German economy is only just managing to avoid a recession,” it read.

The German economy stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2018 after contracting 0.2% in the July-September period, which was the first time GDP (gross domestic product) had shrank since 2015.

A separate note Friday from French bank Credit Agricole noted that Germany accounts for almost three out of every four European cars shipped to the United States.

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US expands probe into airbag failures to 12.3 million vehicles

Shiho Fukada | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A Toyota Motor worker at the production line in the company's Motomachi plant in Toyota City, Aichi, Japan, on July 26, 2018.

U.S. auto safety regulators have expanded an investigation into malfunctioning airbag controls to include 12.3 million vehicles because the bags may not inflate in a crash. The problem could be responsible for as many as eight deaths.

Vehicles made by Toyota, Honda, Kia, Hyundai, Mitsubishi and Fiat Chrysler from the 2010 through 2019 model years are included in the probe, which was revealed Tuesday in documents posted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. It involves airbag control units made by ZF-TRW that were installed in the vehicles.

The control units can fail in a crash, possibly because of unwanted electrical signals produced by the crash itself that can disable an airbag control circuit housed in the passenger compartment, according to NHTSA documents. The electrical signals can damage the control circuit, the documents say.

ZF, a German auto parts maker which acquired TRW Automotive in 2015, said in a statement that it's committed to safety and is cooperating with NHTSA and automakers in the investigation.

The case is another in a long list of problems with auto industry airbags, including faulty and potentially deadly Takata airbag inflators. At least 24 people have been killed worldwide and more than 200 injured by the inflators, which can explode with too much force and hurl dangerous shrapnel into the passenger cabin. The inflators touched off the largest series of automotive recalls in U.S. history involving with as many as 70 million inflators to be recalled by the end of next year. About 100 million inflators are to be recalled worldwide.

On April 19, NHTSA upgraded the ZF-TRW probe from a preliminary evaluation to an engineering analysis, which is a step closer toward seeking recalls. So far, only Hyundai and Kia and Fiat Chrysler have issued recalls in the case. Four deaths that may have been caused by the problem were reported in Hyundai-Kia vehicles and three in Fiat Chrysler automobiles. NHTSA opened an investigation in March of 2017 involving the TRW parts in Hyundais and Kias.

The upgrade came after investigators found two recent serious crashes involving 2018 and 2019 Toyota Corollas in which the airbags did not inflate. One person was killed.

Jason Levine, executive director of the Center for Auto Safety, a nonprofit consumer group, said the ZF-TRW case shows the auto industry thus far has learned very little from Takata.

“A single supplier of an important safety component provided what appears to be a defective part across multiple manufacturers and 12 million cars,” Levine said. “While the first fatality reports emerged three years ago, it has taken a higher body count for more significant action to be taken by NHTSA and most impacted manufacturers remain silent. The industry needs to do better.”

A message was left Tuesday seeking comment from NHTSA.

In the ZF-TRW investigation documents, NHTSA said that it didn't find any other cases of electrical interference in Hyundai, Kia or Fiat Chrysler vehicles that used the ZF-TRW system but were not recalled. Also, the agency has not identified any other cases of electrical interference in other Toyotas including Corollas, since the company started using the ZF-TRW parts in the 2011 model year. In addition, no electrical interference cases have been identified in Honda or Mitsubishi vehicles with the same parts, the agency said.

NHTSA will evaluate how susceptible the airbag control units are to electrical signals as well as other factors that could stop airbags from inflating. The agency also “will evaluate whether an unreasonable risk exists that requires further field action.”

Last year, Hyundai and Kia recalled nearly 1.1 million vehicles because of the problem, about a year after NHTSA opened its investigation.

Kia vehicles covered included 2010 through 2013 Forte compact cars and 2011 through 2013 Optima midsize cars in the U.S. Also covered are Optima Hybrid and Sedona minivans from 2011 and 2012. Recalled Hyundai vehicles included 2011 through 2013 Sonata midsize cars and the 2011 and 2012 Sonata Hybrid.

In 2016, Fiat Chrysler recalled about 1.9 million vehicles worldwide including the 2010 Chrysler Sebring, the 2011 through 2014 Chrysler 200, the 2010 through 2012 Dodge Caliber, the 2010 through 2014 Dodge Avenger, the 2010 through 2014 Jeep Patriot and Compass and the 2012 and 2013 Lancia Flavia.

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China’s sliding auto sales may be obscuring a change in buyers’ tastes

Sebastian Rothe | EyeEm | Getty Images

China's auto industry has hit a soft patch, but there may be a bright spot.

Auto sales have fallen in China for nine straight months, including a 5.2 percent decline in March.

But electric-powered cars were on display from start-ups and foreign auto giants alike at this week's Shanghai Auto Show. For some in the industry, they say it will be the smartphone-like interface of the new vehicles that will really attract buyers. Those consumers are increasingly using internet-connected services such as food delivery for daily life, especially in China.

So-called new energy vehicles are booming, with sales jumping 62 percent last year. And not just because of the way they're powered.

“The key point is not new energy. The key is smart,” Fu Qiang, president and co-founder of electric vehicle start-up Aiways, said Wednesday in a Mandarin-language interview translated by CNBC.

China battery-electric vehicle unit sales forecast (in millions)

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

“The entire decline in the auto industry, much more, in my personal view — of course has some small connection to the economy — but I think the greater reason is that customers right now are not satisfied with the product mix,” said Fu, formerly president and CEO of Volvo Cars China.

Thenine-month slide in automobile sales in the world's largest vehicle market has many worried about a significant slowdown in the Chinese economy, and the wallets of a population of more than 1 billion. Last year, uncertainty about the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war and Beijing's efforts to reduce reliance on debt for growth put a chill on spending, especially on big-ticket items such as cars.

Much of the decline in auto sales in the last two years was the result of a tough comparison with rapid growth in 2016, Alan Kang, Shanghai-based senior market analyst at LMC Automotive, said on Tuesday. He noted a major drop came from decreased demand from China's smallest cities for domestic auto brands, while premium foreign brands had less of an impact.

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“This year will be overall a year of recovery,” Kang said in a Mandarin-language interview translated by CNBC. And despite subsidy cuts, he said he expects sales volume in “new energy” vehicles to increase to 1.5 million from 1 million last year.

The category — which includes both pure battery-powered vehicles and hybrids — has been a bright spot in China, helped by favorable government policies. Sales grew 62 percent last year, while overall auto sales fell for the first time in more than 15 years, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers accessed through the Wind Information database.

“The electrification, internet connectivity and smartness of automobiles has become the industry's future trend,” Victor Ai, head of China Everbright's new economy fund, said in a written response translated from Chinese by CNBC.

Young people's positive views on technology will “thoroughly revolutionize the traditional auto industry,” Ai said. He cited third-party statistics implying that, by 2027, those born after 1990 will account for the largest segment of China's buyers of new cars, at 41.8 percent.

Chinese electric car makers are ahead of their peers: Jato
2:42 AM ET Tue, 16 April 2019 | 02:38

Tastes can change quickly in China. Wen Shuang, a Chinese social media influencer in the auto industry since 2012, said SUVs were in favor at the turn of the century, but now there's more interest in having multiple cars of different kinds. Wen has 750,000 followers on Weibo, China's version of Twitter, and says she was born in 1990.

She also noted in a Mandarin-language interview translated by CNBC that enthusiasm for the future of Chinese car consumption has been generally waning, and this week's Shanghai Auto Show was not as hectic and exciting as it had been the last two years. However, she added that Chinese brands have become more attractive relative to foreign brands, except for those from Germany and Japan. She said she expects more of the industry's emphasis will be put on services.

That's the strategy of many Chinese electric car start-ups, which are often selling directly to consumers or trying to create ecosystems that build customer loyalty.

Services can also be a weak point for traditional automakers in China. A customer's poor experience at a Mercedes-Benz dealership in the central city of Xi'an went viral on social media earlier this month, prompting parent company Daimler to suspend the franchise's operations this week, Reuters reported.

The technology-driven change in consumers' habits and a lower barrier to entry in producing electric cars is forcing the auto industry to revamp itself, Aiways' Fu said. In this environment, he said, there should be as many new automakers as there were old ones.

At least 100 new energy vehicle companies now exist in China, Fu estimated.

This is a completely new playing field, he said: “How many old ones can transform themselves is an unknown number. How many new ones can survive, that's (also) an unknown number.”

For a country of rapid change in consumer tastes and the adoption of technology, the auto industry may still be trying to catch up.

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AEye Team Profile: Dr. Allan Steinhardt

We sat down with AEye’s Chief Scientist, Dr. Allan Steinhardt, to learn about the challenges of using publicly available defense technologies in autonomous vehicles, the current state of automotive LiDAR, and the technology that most excites him today…
An IEEE fellow, Dr. Allan Steinhardt is a sought-after expert on radar, missile defense, GMTI and space surveillance. He was Chief Scientist for DARPA, co-author of a book on adaptive radar, and assistant professor in Electrical Engineering and Applied Mathematics at Cornell University, where he performed funded research on sensor arrays and optimal detection capabilities. Dr. Steinhardt is a member of the national academy of Science Naval Studies Board, and recipient of the US Defense Medal for Exceptional Public Service. He has also served as chief scientist at Booz Allen, the radar project lead at MIT Lincoln Laboratory, and director of signal processing for the defense Industry with BAE/Alphatech.

Q: What technologies developed by DARPA, and other agencies, have been adapted for autonomous vehicle use?
The technologies developed by DARPA that have been of value to both LiDAR and other kinds of sensors for autonomous vehicles are: the solid-state laser, Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS), and the computer chips that are able to do all the processing. So, all the building blocks required for the development of autonomous vehicles have their humble beginnings at DARPA. But there’s the system point of view as well. Many of the systems that are being developed now were started by the government. Biomimicry was also a big investment at DARPA. When I was there, we went on to create a separate office on biomimicry, looking at different biological systems and emulating them for various purposes.

However, LiDAR actually has its origins in the relatively distant past. When I first began working for AEye as a consultant, some of the best papers I came across about LiDAR were written in the early 1960s. And this research has really not been improved upon since then in terms of the basic science. The actual concept of the laser was first developed by Albert Einstein, so it has been around for a lot longer than people realize.

Q: What challenges have we faced trying to adapt defense technology for autonomous vehicle use?
One obvious challenge the industry currently faces is bringing down the cost of these technologies for commercial use. Another is miniaturizing these technologies to fit inside a vehicle, as opposed to a fighter jet or tank. However, one issue that we never really considered in the government that is coming to the fore today is the amount of power it takes to do the processing. We generally weren’t thinking about green vehicles that don’t use a lot of gasoline. But nowadays, the processing is becoming so sophisticated in autonomous vehicles that it’s literally eating into fuel efficiency.

Another one, surprisingly, is the whole issue of cyber security. Back when we were beginning these projects, we never imagined that there would be such deep connections between the Internet and wireless systems and lasers. Back in the early 80’s, there was no worry about a potential external entity accessing the internals of a laser system.

Q: How are we mitigating these challenges?
AEye has a perspective that we hope the industry will adopt more widely, which is to use biomimicry to focus energy on things that matter, which is how most biological systems operate. AEye also creatively adopts off-the-shelf technology and uses them to optimize for size, weight, power, and cost. However, cyber security is still very much an open issue and hasn’t, in my opinion, been adequately addressed yet.

Q: Is automotive LiDAR where you thought it would be today?
I’m surprised at how far along we are. Yet, we are still less developed than I would have thought. I am surprised at how much advancement has taken place in the actual sensor itself (i.e., how well can we sense light, the efficiency of the lasers). On the other hand, I think we are way behind in terms of understanding and addressing what to do with the information gathered. So, I find that where we are today is surprisingly primitive in that sense.

Q: What new technology are you most excited about?
There are the obvious candidates: A.I., silicon technology, and basic laser components. And then there are the less obvious, more interesting candidates, such as the way the medical/biological research communities are looking for ways to adopt how biological systems sense and respond to various stimuli. There’s also a telecommunications revolution currently taking place. I’d call it “the next wave in fiber optic communications”, where the bandwidths are going to be even higher and efficiencies even better. There’s a lot of interesting and non-obvious ways that we can leverage these technologies in autonomous vehicle development.

Q: What have you seen as the biggest difference between working in Silicon Valley and a US Defense Agency?
I thought DARPA was fast paced, but that’s nothing compared to Silicon Valley. The velocity of innovation happening is truly breathtaking. It’s very satisfying to be here. I can’t wait to see what’s next.

Join us on April 18, 2019, when AEye’s Chief Scientist, Dr. Allan Steinhardt, gives a keynote address entitled “Life in the Fast Lane: What’s different about transportation AI?” at Bootstraps Labs Applied Artificial Intelligence Conference in San Francisco. Learn more here.

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