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Conflicted German Automakers Struggle With EV Transition

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Published on October 13th, 2018 |

by Guest Contributor

Conflicted German Automakers Struggle With EV Transition

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October 13th, 2018 by Guest Contributor

Originally published on EVANNEX.
By Charles Morris

It’s no secret that legacy automakers are making the transition to electric vehicles only reluctantly, in response to regulatory pressure from governments and to competitive pressure from Tesla. Contrary to what many seem to believe, Big Auto’s reluctance to embrace EVs is not merely the usual corporate fear of the future, nor is it the result of any oil industry-fueled conspiracy (as far as we know). It’s a simple matter of money — there are good reasons to believe that electrification will take a major bite out of industry profits, as BMW and Daimler execs recently acknowledged.

German automakers remain conflicted about how to transition factory production lines from gas-powered cars to EVs (Image: Werner Budding)

Now Volkswagen has warned that its stated plan to offer an electrified version of each of its models will cost more than it estimated. VW previously predicted that the coming shift to battery power would cost some €20 billion ($23 billion). CEO Herbert Diess, in an interview published in VW’s internal newsletter, indicated that this figure was too low, but didn’t offer a new estimate. “The burden for our company, such as the cost of bringing to market electric cars, will be higher than expected,” Diess says. “This is particularly so since some of our competitors have been making more progress.” (Hmm, who would that be?)

A recent article in the Financial Times discussed the challenges legacy carmakers are facing. Whereas industry disruptor Tesla started from a blank slate to design its vehicles and has “bet the company” on EVs, incumbent OEMs can’t go down that road — the risks are too high. Analysts have warned that a substantial number of Germany’s 800,000 auto industry jobs could disappear along with the internal combustion engine.

FT points out that VW, BMW, and Daimler have each earmarked billions of euros for electric technology, but are taking different approaches — some automakers hope to build EVs using the same architecture as legacy vehicles, whereas others intend to introduce new platforms. The choice of strategy “will re-sort the carmakers in profitability,” says Christian Senger, head of the VW’s e-mobility line. “Those who [take] the hardest road will be more successful than the others.”

Germany protects its car industry as EU goes for just 15% cut in CO2 car emissions by 2025 (Source:Transport & Environment / Image: Plugin Cars)

Volkswagen is leveraging its scale advantage — earlier this year, it awarded €20 billion worth of contracts for battery supplies as part of a plan to introduce 50 pure EVs by 2025. This represents an about-face from VW’s previous strategy — the e-Golf and e-Up, introduced in 2013, were basically existing models stuffed with batteries.

“To make it a fully fledged electric car, you need to start with a battery pack between the wheels and then you build up the car,” Herbert Diess, CEO of the VW Group, told the FT. “Then you have an effective battery system, the range, and you get a lot of freedom for the design of the car, to make more interior space with the same footprint.” (His words echo what Tesla designer Von Holzhausen said back in 2011.)

The first VW model designed this way, the ID Neo, is to come out late next year, the first of several models belonging to the ID electric sub-brand. Although recent reports suggest the program could be delayed.

VW’s ID concept car appears to be another unconventional design approach typically relegated to Big Auto’s electric car efforts (Image: Charged)

BMW seems to be taking the opposite tack, touting the advantages of “flexible architecture” that can accommodate fossil, hybrid or electric powertrains. BMW plans to offer all of its models with a choice of powertrain starting in 2021. “We can’t afford having two factories standing still,” says CEO Harald Krueger. “With a flexible approach, you can always manage the capacity of your plants. But if you have a specific EV architecture, what do you with the old one? What do you do with the people?”

Daimler is combining both approaches, designing purpose-built architecture for its EQ sub-brand while also setting up its production plants to accommodate all types of powertrains, including fuel cells. “We have hybrids, plug-in hybrids, electric cars and maybe robo-taxis tomorrow,” says Daimler Production Chief Markus Schaefer. “It’s hard to predict volumes for the best way in an uncertain world, so this is the most efficient approach to supply the market.”

Some analysts think the flexible approach is too complex in both design and production. “I don’t see how they can consolidate traditional platforms, from small hatchbacks to large SUVs, and at the same time try to include EVs in the equation,” says Pelham Smithers Analyst Julie Boote. “That’s incredibly complicated.”

In another revealing move, Audi decided no e-tron inventory for its US dealerships would be made available (Source: Charged / Image: Automobile Propre)

Others see merit in the flexible approach, pointing out that it’s hard to predict how quickly the shift to electric cars will take place. “Most carmakers proceeding with EVs are following an ‘If you build it, they will come’ approach,” says Bernstein Analyst Max Warburton. “If you have a dedicated EV platform and the demand doesn’t come, you’ve lost a lot of money.”

Sources: Financial Times, Bloomberg

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Guest Contributor is many, many people. We publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. 😀

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Order A Tesla By Monday To Get Full $7,500 Tax Credit

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Published on October 12th, 2018 |

by Paul Fosse

Order A Tesla By Monday To Get Full $7,500 Tax Credit

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October 12th, 2018 by Paul Fosse

Tesla has put up a new note in its design studio. The note informs its customers that if they order any of Tesla’s three models (the Model 3, Model S, or Model X) by Monday, October 15, they will receive delivery by the end of the year and will thus be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit.

In case you haven’t been following closely, Tesla delivered its 200,000th electric car in the US in July, which means the maximum federal tax credit for Tesla buyers will be reduced to $3,750 after the end of the year.

I see this note when accessing the design studio from my desktop browser (but I don’t see it from either Chrome or Safari on my iPhone for some reason):

Let us know in the comments if you see it on Android or other platforms.

Unless something changes with the federal tax credit, the tax credit for Tesla buyers will phase out next year and be gone in 2020 — unless legislation to extend and expand it is passed.

I wouldn’t bet on any extension passing right now, but with Democrats expected to take the House next year, this could be something that could be passed, as there are always deals made to get things in and with a divided government, the administration will need to compromise more to get spending bills passed. However, I don’t see Democrats making this a priority, but maybe I’m wrong.

So, if you’re on the fence about whether to order a Tesla, perhaps this will get you to make a decision to order by Monday!

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About the Author

Paul Fosse I've been a software engineer for over 30 years, first working on EDI software and more recently developing data warehouse systems in the telecommunications and healthcare industry. Along the way, I've also had the chance to help start a software consulting firm and do portfolio management for several investment trusts. In 2010, I took an interest in electric cars because gas was getting expensive. In 2015, I started reading CleanTechnica and took an interest in solar, mainly because it was a threat to my oil and gas investments in my investment trusts. Tesla investor.

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EV Charging Guidelines for Cities

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Cleantech Press Releases

The New Danish Climate Plan — Together For A Greener Future

Shift In Navajo Country As Coal Plant That Navajo Community Doesn’t Want Is Dropped

Capturing CO2 From Exhaust Pipes Is A Bad Idea That Won’t Die

The EV Safety Advantage

Read & share our free report on EV safety, “The EV Safety Advantage.”

The State of EV Charging

Our 93-Page EV Driver Report

30 Electric Car Benefits

Blockchain × Cleantech

Our Electric Vehicle Reviews

Tesla News

Correcting the Cleantech Record

38 Anti-Cleantech Myths

Wind & Solar Prices Beat Fossils

Cost of Solar Panels Collapses

© 2018 Sustainable Enterprises Media, Inc.

Electric Cars
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Solar Energy Rocks
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This site uses cookies: Find out more.Okay, thanks