Millennials may claim another victim: Harley-Davidson and the classic American motorcycle

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Harley Davidson motorbikes are driven down St. Martins Lane in London.

The supposed millennial penchant for “killing” industries gets thrown around a lot, but it could really be happening to one American icon: the Harley-Davidson motorcycle.

Data suggest a considerable generational divide in attitudes toward heavyweight motorcycles, the sort of bikes sold by brands such as Harley and Polaris' Indian brand, said UBS analyst Robin Farley in a note published Friday.

It turns out that younger people do consider buying motorcycles, but for entirely different reasons than older customers, and that has potentially profound implications for companies such as Harley-Davidson, which has been struggling with declining sales and an aging demographic.

Shares of the motorcycle maker have fallen 32 percent in the last 12 months.

The survey's most significant finding is that 21- to 34-year-olds consider buying a bike for “ease of transportation,” whereas older buyers purchase bikes “as a hobby” or because “motorcycles are cool.”

This distinction is important, since the average Harley-Davidson customer is a married man in his early 50s, with a household income at or above $90,000. These are the customers buying motorcycles out of a passion for the product or lifestyle.

Younger buyers appear to be more motivated to consider motorcycles for practical reasons, which means it is likely they will be more interested in less expensive bikes that bring in lower margins for manufacturers.

“We believe this significant divergence in incentives to buy a new bike could be what is partly behind Harley's and broader heavyweight motorcycle industry's challenge to tap into a new segment of younger riders to drive growth,” Farley said. “So unless there is a generational shift among younger riders to see motorcycling as a hobby vs. means of transportation, the outlook for the heavyweight industry could continue to be more dependent on an aging demographic.”

It might not be all bad, though.

“Perhaps one hopeful sign for the industry is that younger potential buyers cited the second most common reason to buy a motorcycle is that it 'goes with their self-image,'” Farley said.

Harley-Davidson has initiated an ambitious plan to lure 2 million more riders to the brand in 10 years. Among other things, the company is setting up riding schools around the country, and it is releasing an electric motorcycle called the “Livewire.” The company also previewed two electric concept bikes earlier in January.

Officials at Polaris weren't immediately available to comment. Harley-Davidson told CNBC the company has been aware of the demographic trend and it has been informing the company's strategy.

“There's nothing new here,” Harley-Davidson told CNBC in a statement. “Our advanced analytic capabilities allow us to deeply understand rider migration trends. In fact, our knowledge of riders informed our strategy to build the next generation of Harley-Davidson riders globally, which we launched in early 2017.”

The survey polled 2,100 adults in the U.S. over the age of 21 from Sept. 1, 2018, to Sept. 21, 2018.

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Ford’s 5 big fixes for its troubled international business

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At Ford's stand at the IAA Commercial Vehicles, an off-road vehicle of the Ford Ranger type is on a Ford Transit van.

Ford reported fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of what investors expected, laying the blame for its lackluster performance on restructuring costs and troubled markets overseas.

Ford's difficulties in Europe, China and South America have been no secret, and executives devoted a fair amount of time on a their earnings call Wednesday explaining the company's weaknesses and what they're doing to address them.

“Ford entered 2019 with a very clear vision and we're building momentum to improve profitability and returns,” said CEO Jim Hackett on a conference call on Wednesday. “We're now in execution mode.”

Its shares rose by more than 3 percent in intraday trading Thursday.

Here are the top five things executives said Ford is doing to turnaround its international sales.

New products

Source: Ford
The Ford Territory, a mid-sized SUV Ford unveiled in China

Ford is revamping its lineups all over the world, focusing on selling only its most profitable models. In the United States, this mostly means pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles. In Europe, this includes pushing the Ranger, its mid-size pickup, and offering higher-performance sports packages for the Fiesta subcompact car and Focus compact car overseas.

Perhaps the biggest push is in China, which is the largest auto market in the world and a sore spot for Ford. Chinese automakers already offer consumers there a lot of options, forcing importers to constantly refresh their lineups or get left behind like Ford.

“China is the largest automotive market in the world and we think it could be twice the size of the U.S. by 2025. So getting our business back on track is essential,” Ford Executive Vice President of Global Markets Jim Farley told investors. “Last year as we discussed you with you, we identified a number of operating shortfalls,” he said, citing dealership profitability, excess inventory and a lack of a fresh lineup of new vehicles as major deficiencies in China.

Last year, the company unveiled a sport utility vehicle that is meant to kick off a slew of new products for the country. This includes a new version of the Escape compact SUV, and Focus. Both vehicles saw transaction prices double in China in 2018. Ford has ten more models on the way, Farley said.

Dealer profitability

Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A Ford Escort on display at a Ford dealership in Shanghai, China, on Thursday, July 19, 2018.

Keeping dealerships profitable has been a big problem for Ford, particularly in China. The company has taken some steps to address this, and about one third of its dealers in China are now profitable. The company expects the trend to continue upward through the year, Farley said.

Local production

Meghan Reeder | CNBC
Cars roll down the assembly line at the Ford plant in Chongqing, China.

Automakers typically build where they sell, but sometimes import and export vehicles from one country to another. The ongoing trade war has not been kind to the business, primarily driving up the cost of materials. Tariffs alone cost Ford $750 million in 2018.

Ford said it can make money-losing cars more profitable just by focusing more of the supply chain and assembly near the market they're destined for sale.

“Simply by sourcing from a true local Chinese supply base, we will cut our material costs and we are targeting significant reductions in structural costs for consolidated operations,” Farley said.

Ford said Wednesday it needs to “localize” some key imports into China, specifically the Ford Explorer and some Lincoln vehicles, which tend to command high prices and yield profits for the brand.

“The effect of that is pretty amazing when you look at each of the Lincoln products and the Explorer in terms of going from what now are quite substantial losses for those imports to very attractive mostly business cases,” Farley said.

Cutting losses

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Ford employees assemble the StreetScooter Work XL in North Rhine-Westphalia, Cologne. For the first time, Deutsche Post DHL is not building the street scooter itself, but in cooperation with carmaker Ford.

Unlike rival General Motors, which determined its European business wasn't worth keeping, Ford's problem is that many of its international operations are a mixture of good and bad, said Jeffries analyst Philippe Houchois. It's especially an issue in Europe where it recently announced job cuts and a new partnership with German automaker Volkswagen.

More details about how the two automakers intend to work together need to be revealed, but many industry analysts think collaborating with VW will allow Ford to keep a foothold in Europe, where it currently has successful commercial transit van and pickup truck businesses that has grown in market share for the last five years.

More restructuring

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Assembly line of engines for the Ford KA 1.0 3 cylinders at the Ford Engines plant in Camaçari, Brazil.

Ford's $11 billion restructuring plans, which Hackett had largely kept a mystery from investors, are beginning to take shape. He told investors “more details” will be coming on its plans to overhaul its business in South America, where Ford, and many automakers, have historically had uneven performance.

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General Motors gears up to ‘electrify’ GMC pickup trucks

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2019 GMC Sierra SLT truck is unveiled during an event at Russell Industrial Complex in Detroit, Michigan, on Thursday, March 1, 2018.

With its CEO setting a goal of going 100 percent electric, General Motors is taking a close look at how, if not when, to offer an all-electric SUV, according to the head of the automaker's GMC truck brand.

While it is not clear how far along such plans have come, GM would join a growing list of automakers looking to electrify some of their biggest and brawniest vehicles. A senior Ford executive just last week confirmed that an all-electric version of the F-series pickup is now in the works.

“Certainly, it's something we're considering,” Duncan Aldred, the vice president of the GMC brand, told CNBC when asked about the prospects of an all-electric version of the big Sierra pickup. While Aldred wouldn't confirm if development is already underway, he pointed to comments made by GM CEO Mary Barra last March that the carmaker is on a “path to an all-electric future.”

Source: Ford Motor Company
The Ford F-150 Raptor was modeled in part off desert-racing trucks, and is best suited for “overland” off-roading as opposed to rock crawling.

An all-electric version of the GMC Sierra would all but certainly be accompanied by a battery-electric version of the more mainstream, albeit higher-volume Chevrolet Silverado, said David Cole, director-emeritus of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Both trucks share the same underlying platform, as well as conventional internal combustion powertrains. That would increase economies of scale and bring down the cost of developing and producing a battery drive system, several industry observers pointed out.

“They wouldn't be saying this if they weren't really confident about doing it,” Cole said. After having spent time at the GM battery lab recently, Cole said the automaker “wants to be at the forefront of battery-electric technology.”

But there are several key issues driving the company's pace of product development, including the need for batteries that can both deliver better range and come down in price. When the Chevrolet Bolt EV launched in late 2016 product development director Mark Reuss — now GM's president — said it had driven the cost of battery cells down to around $145 a kilowatt-hour. Cole said GM's target is “lower” than $100, a figure that could put its future all-electric drivetrains close to parity with comparable diesel and gas technology. Battery cells generally cost between $150 to $200, according to estimates from researchers at Boston Consulting Group.

How soon that would happen is unclear. For his part, GMC chief Aldred told CNBC that battery technology still carries a fairly hefty premium that makes it difficult to target mainstream segments, unless a carmaker like GM is willing to accept lower margins. As a result, the executive said, automakers would likely target higher end products.

Pickups, on the whole, carry some of the highest profit margins in the auto industry, particularly some of those sold through the GMC brand. But the entire industry has been pushing pickups up-market, adding on more options and luxury touches to drive up the price. Ford is now offering a version of its F-Series loaded with luxury car features that carries a price tag nudging $100,000.

“It's always a mistake to introduce a new technology on a lower-priced product,” said CAR's Cole. “You have a better opportunity to cover costs if it's on a high-end vehicle.”

Ford has not offered any details about the planned all-electric pickup that was announced by its president of global operations at a conference in Detroit last week. But Cole and others believe it will also target a premium, personal use segment of the market, rather than more traditional, commercial users, such as builders and contractors.

Detroit automakers continue to dominate the full-size pickup segment and offer a broader range of options, including powertrains, than import rivals. Company officials have not said whether the third domestic manufacturer, Fiat Chrysler, will also launch an all-electric model, though during a media event at the North American International Auto Show last week, CEO Mike Manley indicated the company will be expanding its electrified portfolio.

Tesla
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk unveils a sketch of a pickup truck at an event in Hawthorne, California on November 16, 2017.

Whether Toyota and Nissan — the other two full-size truck manufacturers — will follow suit is unclear. But there will soon be new competition from several upstart brands. Tesla CEO Elon Musk previewed a prototype all-electric truck in 2017 and the company could have it ready to join current offerings like the Models S, X and 3 by sometime in 2020, he has indicated.

Then there's Rivian, a suburban Detroit start-up that previewed its own full-size prototype at the Los Angeles Auto Show in November. If it lives up to its initial billing, the truck could match, and even exceed the expectations of many pickup buyers, in fact.

The company says it will deliver 400 miles of range, with four individual motors allowing for all-wheel-drive. The truck is expected to make “close to 800 horsepower,” Rivian CEO R.C. Scaringe said during a press conference at the show. He also said the R1T will be able to hit 60 in 3 seconds and tow up to 11,000 pounds. That would make the Rivian the world's fastest pickup and give it towing capacity equal to some of the beefiest versions of the Ford F-150, GMC Sierra 1500 and Chevrolet Silverado 1500 now on the road.

Paul Eisenstein/CNBC
Rivian CEO R.C. Scaringe with R1T electric pickup at the 2019 LA Auto Show.

Disclosure:
Paul Eisenstein
is a freelancer for CNBC. His travel and accommodations for this article were paid by General Motors.

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