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Tesla Gigafactory 1 Timeline & Results — CleanTechnica Deep Dive

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Published on January 20th, 2019 |

by Chanan Bos

Tesla Gigafactory 1 Timeline & Results — CleanTechnica Deep Dive

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January 20th, 2019 by Chanan Bos

Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada is a proof of concept. Originally, the factory was supposed to be completed in 2020, have a production capacity of 35 GWh of battery cells and 50 GWh of battery packs, and employ 6,500 people.

In 2017, these plans were altered publicly, as Elon Musk claimed that the company found a way to use space more efficiently and set new goals of 105 GWh of battery cells and 150 GWh of battery packs — triple the initial goals. That would also mean employing around 10,000 people when complete.

The only problem is that Tesla didn’t provide a new timetable, which has led many people to assume that the factory is still supposed to be finished in 2020. Though, given the much bigger production targets, it’s actually unclear if 2020 is the end of the roadmap or not.

In any case, by multiple criteria, the factory is only around 30% complete. Given the significant progress, recent updates from Tesla, and overall curiosity (and confusion) about this, we decided to dig in. We went back in time and collected all relevant news stories and reports since the first announcement of the Gigafactory. Have a look.

1* — Extrapolated projection if construction had continued. 2* — Extrapolated projection if Tesla continues construction at the pace it left off. GWh Output — 100% = 150GWh (if you use the investment scale you can substitute $15.0B for 150GWh). Qualified Employees — 100% = 10,000 Employees.

Quick Overview
What this graph shows is that the speed at which the structure was being built was exponential, until it wasn’t. Tesla stopped expanding the structure for almost 2 years. If the company resumes expanding the building right now and can pick up the speed where it left off, then the building will be completed sometime in 2020.

As for the GWh battery cell production capacity of the Gigafactory, that has apparently been increasing somewhat exponentially as well. We know that Tesla reached 20 GWh of production capacity around August, and it was on schedule to reach 35 GWh by the end of 2018 last we heard. We reached out to Tesla for confirmation on this matter but did not receive confirmation or denial.

The last bit of data on this graph cover the number of people (excluding construction workers and non-qualified employees) who are employed at the Gigafactory. The number is in percent out of 100% (10,000 jobs), so as to better compare with building completion and GWh output. What we see on the graph is that up until 2018, the number of employees hired is approximately on par with building completion.

Analysis
Employees
Our research has revealed a few very surprising tidbits of information. A while ago, it was announced that Tesla had 7,059 employees at the Gigafactory. However, our deep dive has revealed that in reality the original 6,500 employee goal (which was later extended to 10,000) only includes “qualified employees,” while the 7,059 figure includes all employees.

So, how many of the 10,000 qualified employees had actually been hired at that time? The answer is only 4,247.

It is very surprising that Nevada released the number of all employees since in the past it has only published the number of qualified employees. It’s like comparing apples to apples & oranges. Nonetheless, this is actually very useful information. Here’s an excerpt from Tesla’s original 98 page incentive agreement with the Nevada Governor’s Office of Economic Development from 2014:

One of the new things we have learned from this is that, once complete, the Gigafactory will very likely employ not 10,000 people but more than 13,000 employees. This is because the 6,500 employee figure (and by extension the 10,000 employee figure as well) only includes the qualified employees. If you also count the current number of non-qualified employees, you get around 13,000.

While there is insufficient data to confidently conclude how many non-qualified employees there will be at the Gigafactory once complete, if today’s figures represent an accurate ratio, then it could very well be that when complete, the Gigafactory will employ more than 15,000 or 16,000 people.

Building completion
The reason we have chosen in our calculations to disregard the year in which Tesla didn’t expand the building is because the number of construction workers at the site has only increased. This is why we believe Tesla might pick up building construction at the pace it left off at. Here is a graph showing the number of construction workers:

You might be wondering what that strange drop in July 2016 is all about. We have included this on purpose to shed some light on a few discrepancies in the data we have stumbled upon.

Until July 2016, the Nevada’s GOED (Governor’s Office of Economic Development) published quarterly reports on qualified employees and investments made into the Gigafactory. At first glance, it seemed like they were over-calculating the number of employees and at times misplaced up to $2 million of investments per quarter until it became clear that they were publishing unaudited data and that such adjustments are normal.

After Q2 2016, Grant Thornton, an auditing company, took over the reporting, and while they published a lot later and the numbers were lower, they were apparently more accurate. If you pay close attention to our first graph in 2016, there is also a slight decline in qualified employees that has to do with the same transition.

Annual GWh production capacity
While mathematically the extrapolated projection is accurate, in reality, the final 15–25% might end up looking a bit different. If the Model 3 ramp is any indication, it’s way harder to hit those final percentage points. The biggest difference is that in Fremont Tesla is running out of space and needs to find a way to cram it all in. At the Gigafactory, Tesla could simply expand the building a bit more and add additional production lines and not invest all that effort into speeding up existing lines to hit some arbitrary number.

Investments & employees of Tesla, Panasonic, and others

Not to clutter up the first graph, we have kept the division of employees and investments between Tesla, Panasonic, H&T, and Valeo separate.

For those unfamiliar with H&T, “Heitkamp & Thumann Group is a leading global partner for the supply of world class precision formed components in metal and plastic.” It has invested $99 million since Q2 2017. Valeo is an “Automotive supplier” that has thus far only invested $9 million once, in Q2 2017.

Tesla has invested a total of $2.754 billion and Panasonic has invested $1.591 billion. In total, $4.453 billion has been invested into the Gigafactory.

As per our first graph, the total investment is likely to be between $7.5 billion and $10 billion. The math says $7.9 if they finish before the end of 2020 (as per the original schedule) or $8.8 billion if they finish a whole year later.

In Conclusion
At this point, it’s unclear if Gigafactory 1 will be completed before the end of 2020. However, if everything goes well and follows the trend lines, it is possible. Our current theory is that all this time Tesla (together with Panasonic) has been developing better battery lines and better batteries. Once satisfied, they will simply have to copy & paste that new design, so that might make matters a bit simpler. In this case we will suddenly see a lot of rapid progress. The only question is when this turning point will be. The fact that Tesla has recently made a new parking lot indicates that this turning point could happen at any moment.

Some of the haters might again try to say that the Gigafactory timetable was planned using the patented “Elon time” metric and has resulted in delays. Despite any delays (if there will be any), production capacity today appears to be approximately the production capacity originally targeted for 2020 — quite an early arrival.

Tesla is building the biggest battery factory in the world, becoming the biggest battery manufacturer, and trying to “accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.” In perspective, this is critical to the future of humanity, and critical to averting catastrophic climate change. So let’s be thankful this project is rolling along so quickly.

Timeline of Events
For those who are interested, below is a satellite picture of the Gigafactory showing approximately when each section was completed. Underneath that is a timeline of various Gigafactory 1 related milestones, events, and announcements. Here is a link to Nevada’s GOED website that contains all the reports they have published over the years.

2014

February 26 — Gigafactory announced by Elon Musk

July — The factory breaks ground

2015

September 8 – Section C is done

October – Tesla moves the energy storage production line from Fremont to the Gigafactory

2016

February 19 – Section A and B done

February 24 – Section D done

April 26 – Battery cost is below $190/kWh

July – Construction of sections D’, E, E’, and F begins

July 29 – The grand opening (side note: Elon Musk retweeted one of our stories about Gigafactory 1 that week)

December 8 – There are now 850 employees and there will be 1,000 more in H1 2017

December 22 – Sections D’ and E’ are complete but the roof has not yet been painted

2017

January 4 – Tesla starts 2170 NMC battery cell production for Powerpack 2 and Powerwall 2

February 18 – Tesla hints at 35% battery cost reduction instead of 30%

February 27 — Nevada’s executive director of the Governor’s Office of Economic Development indicates Tesla plans to hire around 54% more workers for the Gigafactory project than was initially expected

March 23 – Section F completed, section D’ and E’ roof painted white

June ..

Tesla Q4 Financial Estimates — Tesla Will See Profits, Just Not As Much

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Published on January 19th, 2019 |

by Vijay Govindan

Tesla Q4 Financial Estimates — Tesla Will See Profits, Just Not As Much

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January 19th, 2019 by Vijay Govindan

Happy Holidays, Happy Kwanzaa, Happy Festivus, and Happy New Year!

I received quite a few comments that running Tesla’s finances through a lemonade stand confused readers. I realized two things. People without a financial background loved it. People who fully read Tesla’s SEC filings for a mid-morning snack hated it, or at best tolerated it. 😉

To make some amends, I am publishing two spreadsheets used to make my predictions for Tesla’s Q4. The first is my original and the second is after adjusting for Tesla’s recent delivery estimates for Q4 (see here and here for some high-level detail on Q4 deliveries). Sorry, lemonade folks. I promise I’ll bring lemonade back when Q4 results are released.

Update: Tesla’s news on 1/18/2019 shocked me and forced an update to my original article. I was predicting a record-breaking quarter. That turned out to not to be the case and it would be wrong to go with what I first wrote. I have kept my original charts and most of the wording to show my thought process. I have included additional sections below to account for the news.

I wrote this on my Twitter feed: “Heart-wrenching news to those impacted @Tesla. ;( My prayers are with you and your family. You will get something soon. Thank you for your dedication and contributions to advancing sustainable energy for all of us. God speed.”

Tesla’s Profit-Setting Q4
Tesla set records for production and deliveries in the 4th quarter. From Tesla’s delivery report:

“Q4 deliveries grew to 90,700 vehicles, which was 8% more than our prior all-time-high in Q3. This included 63,150 Model 3 (13% growth over Q3), 13,500 Model S, and 14,050 Model X vehicles.”

After difficulties suffering through production hell earlier in the year, this is an extraordinary feat. That said, Wall Street analysts and I had even greater expectations. According to FactSet, delivery numbers were 2,000 less than expected. Without detailed access to the FactSet database, we don’t know how FactSet computed the numbers. I am reaching out to FactSet in the hopes of finding out more. A miss of 2,000 deliveries amounts to a miss by 2.1%. It’s not a lot. In combination with Tesla reducing prices, this is blamed for Tesla’s stock having a deep fall early in January. “The Grinch is in town and Santa has left the building,” was the general feeling among Tesla shareholders (of which I’m one).

I will have to eat humble pie based on how wrong my estimates were. I was overly optimistic that the combination of the expiring tax credit and buoyant production would allow Tesla to set even larger records. It looks like Tesla did not expand production aggressively and focused on preserving gross margin. However, that bodes well for the financial results in February.

Here are some highlights:

Metric
Old Q4 Estimate
New Q4 Estimate

Revenue
7,672,682
7,289,697

Cost of Revenue
5,770,693
5,494,546

Operating Expenses
1,088,305
1,088,305

Net Profit / Loss
606,449
506,166

Diluted Earnings Per Share
3.40
2.84

Cash and Cash Equivalents
3,823,542
3,723,259

Cash Flow from Operating Activities
1,417,003
1,316,720

Cash Flow from Operating Activities Minus Cash Flow from Investing Activities
856,038
755,755

Gross Profit
24.1%
23.9%

Deliveries
96,721
90,700

The end result of my estimates is still $500 million in net profit. Operating cash flow is strong at $1.3 billion. Cash balance increases robustly to $3.7 billion. This cash balance does not include the $230 million in debt Tesla repaid in November. Adjusted earnings are estimated at $3.99, still much higher than Wall Street estimates or Estimize’s crowdsourced estimates.

Here are some charts for those visually inclined.

Tesla’s Layoffs
Elon’s email should be read in full by anyone interested in Tesla.

“In Q4, preliminary, unaudited results indicate that we again made a GAAP profit, but less than Q3. This quarter, as with Q3, shipment of higher priced Model 3 variants (this time to Europe and Asia) will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit.”

This news changes everything in the charts above. It also led to a -13.0% drop in the stock. How much “less” is less GAAP Profit? I decided to do a quick scenario analysis.

Q4 Net Profit / Loss – Possible values under different Gross Margin / Model 3 ASP scenarios

Model 3 ASP

Gross Margin
52,500
55,000
57,500

17.20%
203,062
228,550
254,039

19.70%
280,861
310,054
339,247

22.20%
358,660
391,558
424,455

24.70%
436,459
473,061
509,664

Q3’s Net Profit was $311,516. Cells in black underline are possible based on what Elon said. These numbers are based on $205 million in ZEV credits, which is probably overstated. The best case is Gross Margin stayed the same as last quarter and Model 3 ASP declined to 55,000. The worst case scenario is profit much less than Q3. Combined with an expected tiny profit in Q1, expectations were reset for many people. It could be profit is less due to the other areas outside of the Model 3 not performing well. I think it is more sales of the Mid-range Model 3 which helped lower ASP’s. Lower ZEV credits also would contribute to less profit. Most likely, it is a combination of items. We won’t know for a few weeks what caused the lower profit. It’s merely speculation at this point.

Tesla Pravduh
Tesla delivery and financial numbers are never complete without some Pravduh thrown in to get the naysayers energized.

CNBC: “Tesla shares tumble as much as 10% as company misses Wall Street vehicle delivery estimates, cuts prices”

The headline is accurate but misleading. How many people will put the proper emphasis on “as much” in the above headline? The 10% tumble is emphasized. That’s bad optics and a large round number. Actual closing results were -6.8%. This level of volatility is high but normal for Tesla over the last year. The headline makes it seem Tesla is cutting prices due to missing vehicle delivery estimates. That’s factually not true. From Tesla’s delivery estimate press release:

“Moving beyond the success of Q4, we are taking steps to partially absorb the reduction of the federal EV tax credit (which, as of January 1st, dropped from $7,500 to $3,750). Starting today, we are reducing the price of Model S, Model X, and Model 3 vehicles in the U.S. by $2,000.”

If we re-write the above, it looks like the following: Tesla shares drop -6.8% as the company just misses optimistic Wall Street vehicle delivery estimates, cuts prices to offset tax credit. If things were really bad, Tesla would have cut prices by $3,750 or more. The egregious part of this headline is that it was prominently featured on CNBC’s home page the whole day even as Tesla bounced higher from the lows of the day. It was subsequently moved from the home page after the markets closed. That’s real-time Pravduh for you. Sneaky, highly effective, and the evidence destroyed. And that’s just one headline. There were many others like that.

Conclusion
Although Tesla didn’t meet my overly optimistic estimates, they still had a profitable quarter. Even if gross margins are the same as last quarter, they will still earn a decent level of profit. Hats off to all the employees of Tesla for making it happen. Longer term, Tesla will continue to grow.

Cyclically, the US stock markets are in a weak time right now until March. Tesla will go along for the ride. Apple came out on Jan 2nd and said revenue for Q1 would be $5 billion to $8 billion less than what it thought two months ago! China is the culprit for not buying enough golden delicious Apple iPhones. For Apple’s honesty in reporting material news, the stock went down 7% after the market closed. Please keep in mind Tesla is reporting record deliveries and went down a similar amount. Investors are panicking after seeing the stock market closed lower at year-end for the first time in 9 years. All subpar news will be sold quickly and viciously as investors head to the warm caress of cold, hard cash and soft, 24 karat gold.

Note: I wrote the last paragraph before the news on Tesla came out. There is a rising risk of worldwide recession heading into January 2020, which I did not mention previously. 2019 is shaping up to be challenging on many fronts for Tesla. But there is room for optimism on Tesla’s product pipeline. Elon ended his email on a positive note.

“For those remaining, although there are many challenges ahead, I believe we have the most exciting product roadmap of any consumer product company in the world. Full self-driving, Model Y, Semi, Truck and Roadster on the vehicle side and Powerwall/pack and Solar Roof on the energy side are only the start.”

Regarding Q1 estimates, I have no comment. Q1 is seasonally weak for Tesla. Tesla will be facing market turbulence and a Chinese economy slowing down. This will occur even as Tesla starts Model 3 exports to China and Europe to fulfill their backlogs. It is very possible that Tesla has record Q1 production with severely delayed revenue. This can happen due to longer transit times to China and Europe. All of this makes an estimate useless at this time.

You can view the full initial estimates here or the updated spreadsheet with actual delivery results here.

The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.

I am currently long Tesla shares and short Tesla stock options as a short-term hedge. I do not plan to make any investment or divestment related to Tesla in the next 48 hours from the publish date of this article. I do use the proceeds from my hedge to buy more Tesla shares.

About the Author

Vijay Govindan Vijay ..

Breaking: Tesla Design Studio Changed To Allow Referral Codes In 18 European Countries!

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Published on January 18th, 2019 |

by Paul Fosse

Breaking: Tesla Design Studio Changed To Allow Referral Codes In 18 European Countries!

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January 18th, 2019 by Paul Fosse

Captured from Tesla

Today I noticed the design studio was changed to have a flag in the right-hand corner of the first page (but for Model 3 only). When you click that flag, you get a list of 21 country/language combinations shown below.

Now, when I click on one of those countries, it brings up a screen asking if you have a reservation or not, and telling you that you can get free Supercharging with a referral code.

Captured from Tesla

Then it shows the options available in that country.

Capture from Tesla

As we have reported before, only the long-range battery and all-wheel drive are available in European countries — as Tesla tries to maximize its margins. What is new is that it lets you order from a referral link to get 6 months of free Supercharging (maybe 9 months, since no European customers have had the chance to test drive cars). This may be more valuable in Europe than the United States, since electricity costs are high in some countries. But you better hurry, because Elon Musk has announced that the referral program is ending for good this time on February 1st.

My referral link is https://ts.la/paul92237, but if some other owner has helped you more than me, please use their link instead. They may get a prize for it. I have been fortunate to receive 75 referrals from my readers and hope to receive a few more so that I can sell one Roadster to be able pay the taxes due on the two cars. Taxes are expected to be close to $125,000 per car.

If you have already configured your Model 3, you can still add the code by sending an email to buildmy3EMEA@tesla.com with the word “Referral” in the subject line.

In the body of your email, include your name and contact information, the reservation number (starts with RN), and the referral code you’d like to use.

Conclusion
I find it odd that Tesla would make it easier to use referral codes right before ending the program for good. I think this just happened as part of a redesign of the design studio. The developers that were updating the design studio perhaps didn’t know that the referral codes were ending.

I also think it is odd that it doesn’t include any countries in Asia. I have more news on Asia coming out in an upcoming article.

So, if you were waiting for a good reason to configure a Model 3 in Europe, this is the time! Not only can you get free Supercharging, but you now have it as part of the order in the beginning and you don’t have to wait for your order to be manually updated.

About the Author

Paul Fosse I've been a software engineer for over 30 years, first working on EDI software and more recently developing data warehouse systems in the telecommunications and healthcare industry. Along the way, I've also had the chance to help start a software consulting firm and do portfolio management for several investment trusts. In 2010, I took an interest in electric cars because gas was getting expensive. In 2015, I started reading CleanTechnica and took an interest in solar, mainly because it was a threat to my oil and gas investments in my investment trusts. Tesla investor. Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/paul92237

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Tesla Model X Converted Into An Ambulance — Real-World Pilot Project By Falck

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Published on January 15th, 2019 |

by Jesper Berggreen

Tesla Model X Converted Into An Ambulance — Real-World Pilot Project By Falck

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January 15th, 2019 by Jesper Berggreen

Today, in a press release in my home country of Denmark, the Denmark-based first responder and ambulance operator Falck announced that it has developed an ambulance on the platform of the Tesla Model X.

Falck operates in over 20 countries worldwide, and provides ambulance services in close cooperation with the national authorities. With over 2500 ambulances, Falck is today the world’s largest international ambulance operator. So, why not go ahead and try to implement the electric vehicle era in the fleet?

Indeed, and why not do it with a roomy, fast, and long-range Tesla Model X? (Sorry Nissan, too late with the e-NV200, even though it is roomy.)

Image credit: Falck.dk

First responder & first mover
In total, Falck has more than 5000 vehicles around the world, but very few are powered by electricity. Rescue tasks require a lot of energy, which is inconsistent with an electric car’s limited battery capacity. However, that has not been the case with Tesla vehicles for some years now, and more manufacturers are getting in the game at around 100 kWh of capacity and beyond. “In Falck we are concerned with using less fuel. It is beneficial both for the environment and the economy, and since no one else in the world has yet made an electric ambulance, we ourselves decided to develop one,” says Jakob Riis, CEO of Falck.

Separate electricity & heating
One challenge has been the fact that an ambulance uses power for much more than just driving, which can deplete the car’s battery too fast. It was crucial to solve this so that the patient is safe during transportation as well as actually reaching the hospital. Running out of juice in any EV is no joke, and in an ambulance it would spell disaster. Jakob Riis elaborates on the system:

“We use separate electric systems in the car, which means that all auxiliary equipment is not powered by the car’s own battery, so things like emergency lights, sirens, radio, medical equipment, and cooling/heating equipment is run in a separate system which is charged prior to departure, and backed up by a fuel cell that constantly charges the system on the road.”

The fuel cell is powered by methanol, and this fuel is also used directly for heating:

“So even on a frozen winter day on the highway, where the rescue personnel often wait at length for the rescue operation of the patient being moved into the ambulance, we can guarantee that a warm car is ready for the patient. This is a very important element in a future of electric powered ambulances.”

Real-world testing
Other than starting with patient transport around Copenhagen in electric vehicles, this particular test car will be used in the ambulance service in the southern region of Denmark. “I also expect to see more in the ambulance offering, and we will be better prepared than anyone else. We have both the desire and the duty to develop the ambulance segment, and I am pleased that we already have the first electric car in operation,” says Jakob Riis. “It is being tested under real-life response with rapid acceleration and hard braking, and this has never been done before.”

Falck is an international leader in ambulance services and healthcare. For more than 100 years, Falck has collaborated with local and national authorities to prevent accidents, illness, and emergencies; to rescue and help the injured and distressed quickly and competently; and to rehabilitate the sick and injured. Going electric will surely make these services faster, cleaner, and more reliable.

About the Author

Jesper Berggreen Jesper had his perspective on the world expanded vastly after having attended primary school in rural Africa in the early 1980s. And while educated a computer programmer and laboratory technician, working with computers and lab-robots at the institute of forensic medicine in Aarhus, Denmark, he never forgets what life is like having nothing. Thus it became obvious for him that technological advancement is necessary for the prosperity of all humankind, sharing this one vessel we call planet earth. However, technology has to be smart, clean, sustainable, widely accessible, and democratic in order to change the world for the better. Writing about clean energy, electric transportation, energy poverty, and related issues, he gets the message through to anyone who wants to know better. Jesper is founder of Lifelike.dk.

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Innovative Tesla Model 3 Seat Lock Aims To Reduce Break-Ins

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Published on January 15th, 2019 |

by Kyle Field

Innovative Tesla Model 3 Seat Lock Aims To Reduce Break-Ins

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January 15th, 2019 by Kyle Field

After becoming frustrated with recent break-ins to the rear corner window in Tesla Model 3s, a few owners banded together to solve the problem once and for all by creating a new device that prevents the rear seats from being unlatched.

The recent break-ins to Model 3s have focused on a vulnerability in the vehicle’s security where the rear corner window is not tied into the vehicle’s security system. That means that it can be broken with impunity and without setting off the vehicle alarm. Thefts start with the rear window breaking after which the rear seats are folded down to allow them to visually search the trunk to see if it contains anything of value. This can all be done without setting off the vehicle alarm.

To combat this problem, YouTuber Tesla Raj teamed up with Tesla DIY to develop the Drop-Lock, a device that locks out the handle on the rear seat folding mechanisms to prevent would-be thieves from even being able to fold down the rear seats. Their hope is that Drop-Lock, combined with a sticker on the vulnerable rear corner windows informing would-be thieves of the presence of the lock-out device, are aimed at eliminating not just the thefts, but also the breaking of the rear corner window in the first place.

It is an ambitious project, but an understandable attempt to solve a problem that has plagued many Tesla Model 3 owners living in regions that are seeing a higher number of vehicle break-ins. It’s not clear if this is a security gap that could be solved with a software update or if solving it requires an actual hardware upgrade, like the Enhanced Anti-Theft upgrade that Tesla sells for the Model S and Model X. That upgrade comes with a new hardware module that bolts into the headliner of the vehicle and brings extra sensors and extra security to the vehicle, but sets owners back a steep $350 for the additional protection.

For those interested in learning more about the device or in purchasing one, scroll down to the YouTube video that describes a bit more about the Drop-Lock or head straight on over to the product website. At $24.99, the Drop-Lock isn’t cheap, but if it prevents even one broken window, it has already paid for itself in parts alone, not to mention the hassle and time spent getting the window fixed.

If this article has helped you make a decision to purchase a Tesla vehicle, you can use our referral code to get 6 months of free Supercharging. If you are looking to purchase a Tesla Energy solar or solar + Powerwall system, you can also use our referral code to get an extended 5-year warranty.

About the Author

Kyle Field I'm a tech geek passionately in search of actionable ways to reduce the negative impact my life has on the planet, save money and reduce stress. Live intentionally, make conscious decisions, love more, act responsibly, play. The more you know, the less you need. TSLA investor. Tesla referral code: http://ts.la/kyle623

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Tesla China Adds Extra Security To Prevent Parking In EV Charging Spaces

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Published on January 15th, 2019 |

by Kyle Field

Tesla China Adds Extra Security To Prevent Parking In EV Charging Spaces

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January 15th, 2019 by Kyle Field

A few new Tesla Supercharging spaces in China have some added security thanks to a new parking protection system that was recently added. Twitterer JayinShanghai posted photos of the new devices, which come as a welcome solution to widespread reports of gas and diesel vehicles intentionally parking in Tesla Supercharging stations.

The blue bars are commonly used across China to save parking spaces for the rightful owner and prevent unauthorized access. They are typically used with a manual lock that requires owners to come out to unlock the blue bar to allow parking. The new devices in the Tesla charging stalls make use of an electronic lock that is tied into the popular WeChat app.

WeChat is the proverbial Swiss army knife app in China and is used for everything under the sun there, from actually chatting with others to paying for parking. The new system that has been installed at the Tesla Supercharger stalls in the Rainbow Plaza Hall of the Moon takes less than a minute to use, unlocking the blue stall lock and enabling Tesla owners to charge.

As more and more people buy plug-in vehicles and charging stations become more prevalent in cities around the world, we expect to see more innovative solutions for protecting the right to use the stations for charging and not just parking. This solution simply merges an existing parking space locking solution with Superchargers, but still improves the overall functionality of the space. With most charging spaces having electricity and an internet connection, there is plenty of room for improvement and further innovation to solve the problem.

Until then, we have blue bars in China. To make this work in the United States, the bars would need to be double or triple the height to ensure that the oversized urban monster trucks wouldn’t just see it as a challenge and park in the space just to mock the diminutive device. Thankfully, that’s not an issue in China, and for now, access to Tesla’s Superchargers has been improved slightly.

Image credit: JayinShanghai Twitter

Source: Twitter via X Auto World via Reddit

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Enterprising Tesla Model 3 Owner Adds Automatic Trunk & Frunk Opening

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Published on January 14th, 2019 |

by Kyle Field

Enterprising Tesla Model 3 Owner Adds Automatic Trunk & Frunk Opening

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January 14th, 2019 by Kyle Field

i1Tesla was one of the first YouTube channels to show how to upgrade the frunk struts on the Model 3 to stronger ones that gave it enough oomph to open the frunk all the way with just the tap of the button on the app. Now, he’s released a new YouTube video that shows the process he followed to accomplish the same for the trunk, though it requires a bit more effort and a few more parts.

The Model 3 swept onto the electric vehicle (EV) scene with a promise of delivering a long range, affordable EV. Though, Tesla has admittedly had delays in actually delivering on the $35,000 Standard Range version of the Model 3. Part of trimming down the feature set of its more luxurious siblings, the Model S and Model X, to reach the more affordable price point was to remove some of the more glamorous features, like automatic trunk opening and closing at the touch of a button.

To add a similar set of functionality to the Model 3 trunk, or at least to get it to open automagically, i1Tesla tried a variety of replacement struts to get it to open by itself, but found that none of them actually had the strength needed to lift the much heavier trunk lid up at the mechanically disadvantaged angle that the struts are set at in the Model 3.

To give it the kick needed to lift the trunk up the first few inches, he started experimenting with springs mounted on the shaft of the struts. A few spring sets and a few bucks later, he landed on a set of replacement struts and springs that gave the trunk the right amount of pop to open up at the touch of a button from the app.

The new combination gives Tesla Model 3 owners the information they need to get the same one-touch opening functionality they have enjoyed with their frunks for a few months on the trunks. It’s not going to change the world, but it’s nice to have options to make owning a Tesla that much easier. I know I have enjoyed the one-touch opening of my frunk since installing the strut upgrade a few weeks back.

If you’re looking for a one-stop shopping solution for the frunk kit, our friends over at EV Annex have put together a quick auto-opening frunk strut kit for the Tesla Model 3 that comes with the upgraded struts and instructions to install them. It was one of the easiest upgrades I’ve done on a car and I would put it on par with changing out a license plate frame if not even a little easier.

If you enjoy the content here on CleanTechnica and are looking to purchase a new Tesla, feel free to use my referral link (here).

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Elon Musk Is Giving My Generation Its Future Back. Let’s Not Lose It Again.

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Published on January 13th, 2019 |

by Jennifer Sensiba

Elon Musk Is Giving My Generation Its Future Back. Let’s Not Lose It Again.

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January 13th, 2019 by Jennifer Sensiba

Like many, I’ve been watching the developments in Boca Chica, Texas, with great interest. SpaceX, one of Elon Musk’s companies, is building the “Starship Hopper,” a shorter and simpler version of a spacecraft that could revolutionize space travel. Seeing images of the mostly complete test vehicle, clad in shiny stainless steel, makes me feel like a kid again.

These are exciting times to be alive. We are at the beginning stages of the electric car revolution. We have access to much of the knowledge of our species at our fingertips. Rockets are being launched, and they mostly return to the ground for the next adventure. There’s serious talk of going back to the moon, then to Mars, and beyond. But much of this seemed like it might not really happen just a few years ago.

While I can’t speak for other generations, I can speak for at least part of mine. I was born in the first half of the 1980s. Growing up, we saw all sorts of marvelous futures depicted in fiction and in speculative non-fiction. The Shuttle program ran through my childhood, and the Apollo program wasn’t such a distant memory for others in the family. Electric vehicles, flying cars, AI, and laser guns … all were shown to be normal at some point in the early 21st century. Perhaps the most precise predictions came from the second Back to the Future film, depicting a high-tech 2015, complete with toy hoverboards for children.

As a kid, I also saw the dystopian fiction and non-fictional predictions for a possible depressing future. Environmental collapse, authoritarian regimes, and technology that serves to enslave or kill us rather than empower us, were common in many films. The Terminator might hunt us down, or maybe we’d become human batteries unknowingly living in a simulation. There was plenty of fear for the future as well — but the common element still remained: massive technological achievement, for better or worse.

While we didn’t see a massively dystopian future, we didn’t get the amazing future that the good or bad films and books presented. Instead of getting missions to Mars and beyond, we watched the Shuttle program go through a disaster, run some more missions, and then come to an end — with nothing to replace it! The electric car was off to a promising start, but later killed off. We saw the horror of the 9/11 attacks followed by the PATRIOT Act, and what seems to be an endless War on Terror. Government got caught spying on countless citizens. We’ve seen racial strife, environmental disaster, and drug addiction epidemics.

It wasn’t all bad, though. We got much better computers. We got smartphones. The electric car was dead, but we got better, more efficient gas cars, both hybrid and not. We got semi-intelligent assistants like Siri and Alexa. But we still sometimes feel cheated. There are no deep space missions to follow. No space outposts on other celestial bodies. Until only relatively recently, there were no electric cars and there are still no real flying cars.

I may sound like a total fangirl saying this, but bear with me: Elon Musk is giving us our future back.

Singlehandedly? Of course not. But without competition from Tesla, none of the other manufacturers would have bothered at all with electric vehicles. We still don’t have a flying car like the movies on the horizon, but it’s looking more and more like the next Roadster might be able to do “short hops” with the SpaceX thruster package, so we may yet see the flying cars we were supposed to have.

Nobody else was bothering to try to reuse rockets like SpaceX, and nobody else is ambitiously pursuing anything as amazing as the Starship. While we still aren’t seeing faster than light travel, we have a strong possibility of going anywhere in the world in around 30 minutes. In our lifetimes, we may actually see colonies on the moon, Mars, and perhaps the moons of Jupiter.

I could go on all day, but I’ll try to be short. He’s also working hard on artificial intelligence (and keeping it safe for us), underground transportation, brain-computer interfaces, and broadband internet for the entire planet.

My generation watched our hopes and dreams go from looking promising, to looking like they weren’t going to happen in our lifetimes, and then come back again. For this, we largely have Elon Musk and his teams of hard workers to thank.

I know Elon Musk isn’t perfect, but we’d be fools to take him and his companies for granted. If we do, other countries might not. From what I’ve read, Musk chose to move from his native country of South Africa to the United States because it seemed like the most innovative and successful place to chase his dreams.

However, we all know that there are entrenched interests who would like to see him fall, and wouldn’t mind quickly extending society’s foot in his path to make it happen. There are people who stand to make billions if the electric car revolution collapses. Others would love to replace SpaceX with more expensive “solutions” that enrich them and theirs at everybody’s expense. I’m not saying Musk deserves a free pass to do whatever he wants in life with no consequences, but I am saying that we need to make sure he continues to get the same freedom of opportunity that we all are theoretically supposed to get in the United States.

Musk wouldn’t be the first innovator this happened to. A quick (and cartoonish) look at the interactions of Nikola Tesla and Thomas Edison is quite instructive.

If we allow these entrenched interests to corrupt our institutions and weaponize them against innovators like Elon Musk, it probably won’t hurt him greatly in the long run, but it would probably rob us, again, of the amazing future we could have had. At the very minimum, it would be a loss for the United States and a gain for another country that knows the value of who we were throwing away. Even China, with its much more authoritarian government, knows to appreciate Musk. It was not only unusually flexible with him to break ground on a factory, but offered him a permanent resident card — a privilege not extended to many foreigners without family ties to the country.

If we fail to see what we have until it’s gone, somebody else will not. That would be a sad day not only for my generation, but for my children and theirs. We need to appreciate the innovators we have among us, flaws and all, if we want to truly be great in the long run.

About the Author

Jennifer Sensiba Jennifer Sensiba is a long time efficient vehicle enthusiast, writer, and photographer. She grew up around a transmission shop, and has been experimenting with vehicle efficiency since she was 16 and drove a Pontiac Fiero. She likes to explore the Southwest US with her partner, kids, and animals.

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Tesla Supercharger V3 vs. Taycan Charging: 75D Retirement Suggests Battle Prep

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Published on January 14th, 2019 |

by Dr. Maximilian Holland

Tesla Supercharger V3 vs. Taycan Charging: 75D Retirement Suggests Battle Prep

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January 14th, 2019 by Dr. Maximilian Holland

With the recently announced retirement of the 75D variants of the Models S and X, and hints about upcoming v3 Superchargers, Tesla is likely getting battle prepared to match the Taycan’s real-world charging speeds (miles added per minute).

Elon Musk announced this last week that the 75D variants of the Model S and Model X are soon going to be retired from production (tomorrow or today, depending on where you are). Tesla won’t of course be leaving customers with only one battery size option (the 100 kWh battery) for long, but will likely instead introduce a new, higher capacity, “standard range” (or perhaps “mid range”) battery option for the S and X. There’s a nexus of other factors and considerations that also relate to this change, including the soon-to-arrive, faster, Supercharger v3, and the need to compete with the headline specs of other premium EVs that will be coming available — especially the Porsche Taycan and it’s fast DC charging speeds.

Why retire the 75D battery packs?
A relative weakness of the 75D’s battery has been its comparatively low DC charging speed compared to all other current Tesla batteries. Whist other current batteries can Supercharge at up to 120 kW (even that of the Model 3 Mid Range), the 75D’s batteries top out at 100 kW, and are thus below the limits of even the current Supercharger technology, let alone the upcoming v3 generation. The 75Ds have managed to maintain some pride by using their energy a bit more efficiently than their 100D (and P100D) siblings, claiming back some kudos in terms of replenishing miles per minute of charge.

Click to Embiggen

The graphs (courtesy of the gurus over at ABRP) suggest that there is still some headroom for higher powered charging in the current P/100D and Model 3 batteries (and we don’t yet have a graph for the Model 3 mid range, but it may also have some headroom).

The Model 3 Long Range’s EPA document (below) clearly states that the battery is capable of 525 amp charging (equating to around 183 kW, given the pack’s 350 volts), which is supported by Model 3 teardowns that have uncovered internal DC charge cabling capable of supporting these amp levels. This speaks volumes about the newer technology in the Model 3’s battery pack, likely enabled by some combination of cell chemistry (newer), cell geometry (21700s vs. 18650s), and cooling system design. For present purposes, it also tells us about Tesla’s Supercharging roadmap (more on this below).

At the time it first came on the market in 2016, the 75D battery pack’s DC charging was fast enough to far out-compete anything the EV competition could offer. Now the Audi e-tron is soon to be delivered, which can DC charge at 155 kW peak, and by the end of this year (or early next), the Porsche Taycan will appear, which Porsche is claiming can DC charge at something around 350 kW peak (although closer to 280 kW average, more on this below). Although the Model X75D has a longer range and is far more efficient than the e-tron, it’s charging still loses out slightly on a miles per minute basis (adding 145 EPA highway miles in 30 minutes, vs. the e-Tron’s likely 157 EPA miles, by my estimate). Likewise, the S75D will be outgunned on a miles per minute charging basis by the Taycan, despite having a greater EPA range.

What do these signs this suggest about Tesla’s steps going forwards?
It’s surely not entirely for nothing that the Model 3’s EPA document points to a charging capability of 525 amps, and the onboard cabling supports it. Tesla has evidently already prepped the Model 3 for the next evolution in Supercharging.

Allowing for a safety margin, it seems that around 500 amps may well be the target for the V3 Superchargers, up from the current maximum 330 amps. This also matches the CCS version 2.0 specifications’s maximum amperage ceiling, and we know Tesla is looking to align to some extent with the CCS standards, at least in its European market (where the e-tron and Taycan will mostly be selling). If this is correct, then what more does this entail?

The Model 3 looks set for a solid 175 kW peak Supercharging (350 volts * 500 amps). Certainly, the long-range battery should be capable of this, though the mid range and standard range may come in slightly lower (but still well above the 120 kW present ceiling).

500 amps combined with the S and X’s present 400 volt batteries should in principle allow 200 kW peak DC Supercharging. The present P/100D pack may or may not support this, but it’s certainly something we can expect from all future S and X battery packs, including whatever is released to replace the retired 75D packs.

200 kW Supercharging is already pretty good. But hold on to your hat for a minute.

The upcoming Tesla Roadster’s 200 kWh battery would still take a relatively long time to re-charge to 80% if it (and the Superchargers) are limited to 200 kW power levels — much longer than the Model 3’s ~80 kWh (gross) pack will require at 175 kW. This suggests Tesla will at some point be looking to elevate its battery pack and powertrain voltages on the Roadster.

Likewise, the upcoming Tesla pickup truck will also need a large battery, and will chew through energy more quickly than the other Teslas. It too would benefit from greater-than-200 kW charging, and thus higher battery pack voltages. The Jaguar I-PACE and Audi e-tron’s batteries have nominal voltages of 450 volts. The Taycan, 800 volts.

The downside of higher voltages is that it requires more expensive inverters and other electrical components. The plus side is that it allows better power-to-heat ratios (amongst other things). I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla configures the Roadster’s voltage up towards 500, 600, or even 800 volts, and perhaps likewise for the pickup truck. This also suggests that some (if not all) of the v3 Superchargers will be prepped to be capable of outputting these higher voltages, even if these abilities lie dormant initially. Again, the CCS 2.0 standard can offer voltage and amperage combinations up to 1000 volts (though not simultaneously with the maximum 500 Amps). Tesla may well look to follow suit.

Another reason to expect that Supercharger v3 will be ready for higher voltages is to allow the S to compete with the Taycan. At 200 kW, even combined with the Model S’s class-leading energy efficiency, the S can’t quite match the Taycan’s recharging times in miles added per minute. Based on all that Porsche has promised, the Taycan will sustain an average charge power close to 350 kW for the first 60% of charging, then taper off considerably to give a session average 288 kW by the time 80% charge is reached. This equates to 80% charging within 15 minutes (starting from or near empty). Given the Taycan’s pack size is around 90 kWh (usable), and the range is 500 km / 310 miles (NEDC), we can do the math. The outdated NEDC range rating is usually inflated anywhere between 30% and 60% compared to the more realistic EPA ratings. Let’s speculate that the Taycan’s EPA range will be 225 miles (assuming 38% inflation). The 80% amounts to adding 180 (EPA) miles in 15 minutes.

For the current Model S100D, the EPA combined range is 335 miles (from the usable ~96 kWh pack). Although this makes the Model S some 40% more efficient than the Taycan, it also means that 15 minutes of 200 kW charging adds about 174 (EPA) miles of range, a bit short of the Taycan’s mile-per-minute rate. If, as we speculated above, the Superchargers are prepped with voltages above their present 400–410 volt ceiling, it would make sense for the S and X to also benefit from having higher voltages at some point, to keep abreast of the competition. This would likely be somewhere between 450 and 800 volts. Even at 450 volts (allowing 225 kW charging at 500 amps), the Tesla Model S would add more miles per minute than the Taycan.

Conclusions
The 75D battery pack’s retirement suggests that a new pack is on the way, with more cutting edge capabilities. In line with the company’s marketing shift for the Model 3, Tesla will likely refer to the new pack as a “Standard Range” (or “Mid Range”) battery. In the Model S, this will likely see EPA range pushed towards 300 miles (from the S75D’s 259 miles), with the usual scaling of range for the Model X. It will also be Supercharger v3 ready, so capable of peak charging of at least 200 kW (if pack voltage remains at 400 volts nominal).

Not to be outdone, the P/100D battery will also have to see an upgrade before long, perhaps towards 110–112 kWh usable (a “120D” pack), which should correspond to 400 miles of EPA range and be officially renamed “Long Range.” It will also get the new technology, and be capable of at least 200 kW charging. Both these upcoming Standard Range and Long Range packs may at some point see the voltage rise from the present 400 nominal volts to 450, 500, or more. Whether these packs will incorporate the Gigafactory’s 21700 cells (the original Tesla-Panasonic contract for 2 billion 18650 cells is reportedly close to being fulfilled) or simply newer chemistry 18650s is an interesting question, but one for another day.

We can be confident of the above 200 kW Supercharging, because we’ve seen that the Model 3’s internals and documents show it is capable of 525 amps (probably 500 amps in practice). This means the v3 Superchargers will very likely be running at 500 amps, giving the Model 3 175 kW charging (and the S and X 200 kW charging).

If the Roadster and pickup truck are to be future proofed in terms of charging speeds, Tesla may need to step up the operating voltage to 450, 500, 600, or more. If this perspective makes sense, we can expect the v3 Su..

The Tesla Story Through The Eyes Of Tesla Shorts & Obsessive Critics

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Published on January 4th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

The Tesla Story Through The Eyes Of Tesla Shorts & Obsessive Critics

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January 4th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

I started covering Tesla in 2012, coming to the company as someone who had been car-free for over a decade and loving it. I had previously worked to promote human-powered transport (bicycling and walking), mass transit, and sustainable development. In other words, I was not a car guy.

Nonetheless, there was much to appreciate about electric cars, the beautiful Model S Tesla had developed, and the technological innovations Elon Musk and team had employed.

Furthermore, from my previous work, I had to come to grips with one obvious fact of modern life: even many people who would benefit tremendously from bicycle commuting and would surely enjoy it (who biked for recreation, for example) would never stop driving on a daily basis. If we were going to cut emissions, we needed an electric car revolution. Tesla was clearly leading the way on that front. It was offering an award-winning electric car that demolished the gas & diesel competition in its vehicle class, the first mass-produced electric car that was completely competitive with similarly priced conventional cars.

Nevertheless, critics and skeptics were around every corner. I thought it was crazy back then, but now, after 6½ years of tremendous Tesla successes, it’s downright hilarious. So, in honor of another wicked cool quarter, here’s a view of Tesla history that you might have missed if you only read CleanTechnica:

In bold: what happened

Not bold: Tesla shorts’ & obsessive critics’ take on the news.

Tesla Model S unveiled

It’s doomed. Tesla is doomed. Tesla can’t produce the car. No one will buy it. Sales of 10,000–15,000 a year? Pfff. For whom?

Tesla Model S wins top awards from Consumer Reports, owners, and big auto magazines.

It doesn’t matter — there are panel gaps and demand is drying up. They’ve worked through interested customers and demand is falling.

Tesla Model S demand grows, Tesla creates more production capacity and sales grow.

It’s just a phase, a trend, because Tesla is a novelty with far too much hype. Anyway, that demand growth was all an illusion and is fading now. Demand is falling now. Really.

Tesla Model X approaching production.

Hahaha, no way in hell Tesla is producing that vehicle. It’s impossible to mass produce. Tesla is going to collapse trying to produce this vehicle. It’s a dead company walking.

And anyway, demand for this “SUV” is far lower than Tesla says.

Tesla struggles through first few months of Model X production.

See, we told you. This vehicles can’t be mass produced. It’s completely impossible. Tesla is dead any day, can’t produce the Model X and there’s no demand and Model S demand is falling.

Tesla gets through early hurdles and starts mass producing the Model X.

Crickets.

Tesla reaches annual production and sales of 100,000 Model S and Model X vehicles a year (combined), far more than the 30,000–35,000 the company initially forecasted for these models.

It’s all nonsensical hype. It’s just gone too far. Anyway, Tesla is going to crash financially because it can’t turn a profit and definitely can’t build this ridiculous “Gigafactory” marketing scam. (Never mind that Tesla could be making great profits — has extremely high gross margins — and isn’t doing so just because it is aiming for insanely fast growth.)

Progress keeps truckin’ on Tesla Gigafactory.

It doesn’t matter — Tesla won’t have demand for enough vehicles to make the Gigafactory sensible. It’s a giant, empty house of cards and Ponzi scheme that’s going to take Tesla down. Don’t worry — Tesla’s won’t even be here in 2016 — it’ll be out of business.

Tesla forecasts a doubling of Model S and Model X sales in 2016.

Hahaha — what are you, crazy? Who is going to want to buy all of these vehicles? Demand is going in the other direction! The Tesla fad is getting old and consumers are moving in other directions now. Building up this much production capacity is just hastening Tesla’s collapse.

Tesla unveils Model 3. Reservations surpass 100,000 before the car is even shown, and then soar after it is shown.

This is all a Ponzi scheme [this is a frequent claim] and Tesla will run out of money before it ever builds a single Model 3 for consumers. Plus, the company can’t produce the car as specced without losing money and customers aren’t going to wait till 2020 for their cars. Other automakers — real automakers — will have much better cars out before then and Tesla will still be struggling to get the Model 3 into production if the company isn’t dead by then. But yeah, it will be dead long before then.

Elon Musk indicates that the company’s official target date for start of production is July 1, 2017 — but that it’s sort of just a fake target to push suppliers to be ready and it’s more or less impossible production would start then … but suppliers need to be ready by then.

Hahaha, you’ve got to be kidding me! July 2017? More like July 2020 … or never!

It’s all a scam. The market will figure this out sooner or later.

Tesla actually starts delivering consumer vehicles in July 2017 — blowing basically everyone’s mind.

These are not real cars. It’s all a trick. Tesla’s delivering fake, hand-built cars to Tesla and SpaceX employees. Elon Musk is more like David Copperfield than an auto industry master. The company will never mass produce the Model 3. It will go bankrupt soon enough. Short the stock now!

Tesla struggles for a few quarters trying to get Model 3 production up to the targeted level. One production hiccup after another slows down the progress and essentially puts Model 3 production back on its original schedule.

Told you so. The sky is falling, and Tesla is running out of money and will self-destruct any day now. Don’t wait too long — short the stock now! See? We were right all these years.

Tesla keeps making progress increasing its Model 3 production capacity.

It’s all a scam. They’re shifting cars around from parking lot to parking lot. They have hard limits they can never pass to get to 5,000 units per week. #PaintShop

And demand is already starting to fall off. The cars aren’t even fully produced and customers will start revolting soon. Plus, Tesla could never service these cars and Superchargers are going to be completely clogged soon.

Tesla reaches 5,000 vehicle/week milestone.

#Tentgate

Elon Musk says the company will show a profit in the 3rd quarter and should be sustainably profitable from then on.

WHAT?!?!? Are you crazy? This is crazy talk. Tesla is on the verge of collapsing. There’s no way in hell this is accurate. This is a joke. This is a total scam. Elon Musk is losing his mind. All signs point to the house of cards collapsing any day. It will all be over soon, folks — hold on tight. (And don’t forget to get your anti-Tesla bets in.)

Tesla production grows, sales surge, and Tesla shows a profit in the 3rd quarter. Side note: Tesla Model 3 becomes one of the top selling cars in the country in terms of units sold and the #1 best selling car in terms of revenue. Tesla absolutely dominates the luxury car market and presumably starts sucking sales away from Honda, Toyota, and others as well.

This is all a blip. It’s an accounting trick multiplied by years of demand for the car. Demand is going to collapse now. This strong quarter of sales is the surest sign yet that Tesla is about to crash, as demand cannot be sustained and bills be due.

Tesla has record 4th quarter, massively defying the critics and achieving unprecedented growth in the auto industry. In one year, the company nearly tripled its automobile production and delivery capacity. It sold 33% more cars in the 4th quarter than in all of 2017 combined. The Tesla Model 3 becomes the best selling car in the US from an American car company and the #11 best selling car overall in all of 2018. On the back of the strong 4th quarter numbers, it turned out Tesla sold 1 out of every 5 luxury cars in the country in 2018 and the Model 3 accounted for 1 out of every 3 small & midsize luxury cars in the year.

Now it’s really clear: Tesla demand is dropping. All of the above is history and now we know for sure that Model 3 demand is drying up and Tesla will soon run out of cash as a result. The stock will drop 70% in value in 2019. Forget our previous predictions and criticisms. Forget that we have been consistently wrong for years and have claimed the sky was falling 1,000+ times and it has never yet fallen. We are right this time. Really. You will see.

Is there any wonder why people don’t take Tesla short sellers and über critics seriously?

By the way, if you would like to buy a Tesla and want the benefits that come with a referral, feel free to use my referral code — http://ts.la/tomasz7234 — or not.

About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself (and other species). He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the president of Important Media and the director/founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, and Canada.

Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG, & ABB — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in these particular companies and feels like they are good cleantech companies to invest in. But he offers no professional investment advice and would rather not be responsible for you losing money, so don't jump to conclusions.

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