Tesla Reached 7,000 Cars Per Week In 3rd Quarter & Nobody Noticed

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Published on October 8th, 2019 |

by Maarten Vinkhuyzen

Tesla Reached 7,000 Cars Per Week In 3rd Quarter & Nobody Noticed

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October 8th, 2019 by Maarten Vinkhuyzen

From the start of Tesla Model 3 production until about a year ago, the most important, nearly daily, Tesla news was about the weekly production numbers. We visited the Bloomberg tracker regularly to stay abreast of the news, and the FUD. And then Tesla started producing over 4,000 vehicles per week regularly and the interest disappeared. Tesla finished the marathon many doubted it could endure for more than a mile, two at the most.

Those were fun times. Tesla reaching 100, 200, 500, and even 1,000/week was an exciting progression of events. Elon Musk teased production numbers on Twitter that were one-time events and some claimed that they could “never” be sustained at a steady production level. The monthly sales number guesstimates on InsideEVs and Tesla’s quarterly delivery disclosures were preceded and followed by heated speculation.

As a somewhat more detailed reminder of what happened, Tesla designed a futuristic 5,000 unit/week production line, only to discover that humans were greatly undervalued and that line had to be redesigned while slowly ramping the production numbers. There was the plan to build a second 5,000 unit/week line when more vehicles were needed.

However, when redesigning the line, optimizing and tuning all the steps, Tesla realized that it would be less costly to enhance the line to higher throughput numbers than to build a second line. To be precise, upgrading to 7,000 units/week would be possible with small enhancements and a little capex. Upgrading to 10,000 units/week would require serious investments. The 7,000 unit/week option was really a no-brainer. The 10,000 unit/week option was a possibility that probably never reached the status of plan, let alone stimulating any actual planning.

When building Gigafactory 3 (GF3) in Shanghai became reality, all talks of 10,000 units/week in Fremont were forgotten (except by some foolhardy trolls).

In those days, Musk and some other figures with a grasp of production tried to explain what 41.6 cars/hour or 1,000 cars/day or 7,000 cars/week represents. Many did simple arrhythmic and proclaimed production of 360,000 or even 365,000 per year.

While 24 x 41.67 indeed equals 1,000, there is never a day when there is no slowing down or stopping of the line. To get to 1,000 cars/day, you have to get to a steady 47/hour. There are always bathroom, coffee, breakage, accident, repair, and other interruptions. For the same reason, you need 1,100 to 1,150 cars/day to reach a 7,000 cars/week. Or, at least, something like that. Jerome Guillen, Tesla’s president of automotive, knows the exact number.

That coveted 7,000 cars/week will not result in 91,000 vehicles/quarter. That is 80,000 at the most. A rule of thumb of 11½ weeks per quarter is often used in planning.

In a production environment, there are always production disturbances, accidents, needed repairs, maintenance, upgrades, alterations, etc., besides the holidays and other valid reasons to close the factory for a day or so longer.

Such issues happened a lot in the disastrous first quarter of this year. They happened at a normal rate in the third quarter, and they will happen in each quarter in the future.

But with a total of 79,837 Tesla Model 3 vehicles produced in the last quarter, we now know that the steady 7,000 unit/week total for a whole quarter has been reached. The most remarkable thing about this achievement is that it was not noted by all those people who were so focused on this number a year ago. It was a non-event, as it should be with a normal carmaker.

About the Author

Maarten Vinkhuyzen Grumpy old man. The best thing I did with my life was raising two kids. Only finished primary education, but when you don’t go to school, you have lots of time to read. I switched from accounting to software development and ended my career as system integrator and architect. My 2007 boss got two electric Lotus Elise cars to show policymakers the future direction of energy and transportation. And I have been looking to replace my diesel cars with electric vehicles ever since.

And putting my money where my mouth is, I have bought Tesla shares. Intend to keep them until I can trade them for a Tesla car.

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Capital One: Value of Luxury Gas Cars Getting Slammed by Tesla Model 3

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Published on October 6th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

Capital One: Value of Luxury Gas Cars Getting Slammed by Tesla Model 3

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October 6th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

We talked at length about it years ago at a CleanTechnica conference in Berlin. The night the Tesla Model 3 was first shown to the public, it also crossed our minds. Kyle Field and I were on the test track — only sharing the road and driveway with a few Tesla employees, a black matte Tesla Model 3 prototype, a silver Tesla Model 3 prototype, and a couple of other Teslas. In the 20 minute video I shared of that extremely lucky test track experience (but not the 10 minute abridged video), I didn’t interrupt the fun sounds of the test track fog shooters and the smoothly rolling Teslas very much, but while talking with a Tesla employee near the beginning I laughed a bit out of my awe for the beautiful, super fresh Model 3 and what it would mean for the auto industry. I was picturing elite auto giants in the board room of BMW and Audi sobbing. This was a disruptor, a truly disruptive product that would transform the auto industry, starting with the luxury car market.

A couple of weeks later, at our first Cleantech Revolution Tour conference, in Berlin, we discussed a matter that seemed absolutely imminent: a crash in luxury gas and diesel car resale values. The ramifications of a disruptive new electric luxury car that genuinely embarrasses the Audi A4, Mercedes C-Class, and BMW 3 Series are manifold, but perhaps one of the biggest is that strong depreciation of these previous industry leaders could be disastrous for their parent companies and further accelerate the switch to electric transport.

Notably, a crash in resale values means leasing companies have to increase what they charge customers — otherwise, they’ll lose money on the cars over time. Raising leasing prices means that those vehicles become less competitive, which means fewer people leasing.

An employee of one of the largest auto leasing companies in Europe told me a couple years ago that the CEO of the company had already committed to a quick transition to 100% electric vehicles as a result. It would simply be bad business management to walk into a collapsing market and financial crisis. All he had to do was look the superiority of the Tesla Model 3 and reflect on where the market was headed.

Normal new car buyers may be slower to pick up on the market trends. If they didn’t put down money for a Model 3 reservation or at least jump into the crowd once production ramped up, there’s a good chance they’re simply out of touch. So, it should come as a surprise when they bring their 2018, 2019, and 2020 BMW 320i, Audi A4, or Mercedes C300 “luxury automobiles” to auto dealers or the private used car market and find they lost far more value than the consumers anticipated. Nonetheless, that is what’s going to happen, and that is what’s starting to happen.

No, this is no longer just CleanTechnica saying so. It is not simply Teslarati and Teslamondo saying so. It is Capital One saying so. As the non-analyst tweeting above highlights, Capital One now says that the Tesla Model 3 is “wreaking havoc” on the used luxury car market — that is, the used luxury gas and diesel car market. To Tesla owners, the most confusing part of that some people still consider those cars luxury cars. They have horrible, non-luxury drive quality compared to a Model 3. They have horrible, non-luxury tech compared to a Model 3. The don’t meet the safety level or performance of a Model 3. The interiors or cluttered with old technology, knobs, buttons, and an antiquated interior design. Perhaps we’re Tesla fanboys and fangirls, but there are many reasons for that, and the fan population is growing fast.

Nonetheless, it’s both surprising and exciting that such a mainstream, establishment company like Capital One is publishing the news. It does not mince words. Here’s the headline and summary statement:

The report also notes that 22.2% of Tesla buyers are trading in European luxury vehicles when buying their Teslas.

The searing reflection of market trends, perhaps written by a Tesla owner, sounds more like something you’d find on CleanTechnica than in Capital One’s Learning Center:

“The decisions car-buyers make are increasingly on the side of technology—or more specifically, Tesla’s version of it—than the traditional luxury cars that have long been industry benchmarks. What does that mean? Tesla’s sales successes are wreaking havoc on the pre-owned luxury car market. Once-strong demand for European luxury brands like Mercedes, Audi, and BMW is evaporating as buyers that used to spring for premium luxury sedans now want a Tesla. Any Tesla.”

But it’s absolutely true.

Not only are European luxury vehicle owners trading in those cars for Teslas, but the Tesla Model 3 is setting a whole new frame for what is possible from an entry-level luxury car. It is demolishing previous sales records in those markets and competing in the mainstream car market with the likes of the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord — as it should. Good luck, Audi. Good luck, BMW. Good luck, Mercedes.

The Capital One report is about the US market, but the Model 3 is the #1 best selling automobile (of all classes and vehicle types) in the Netherlands and Norway this year. The base version of that car just started getting delivered to many of those markets, and the higher trim is just starting to make its way to Australia, Japan, South Africa, etc. The disruption is just beginning. The signs are clear, and Capital One has even felt compelled to coin a term around this transition:

“In particular, Tesla’s Model 3 went from zero to over 140,000 units faster than any other luxury vehicle had before, and the demand for new Teslas is, in a very real sense, driving the used car market. With buyer after buyer trading in a still new-ish luxury vehicle for a brand-new Tesla, traditional luxury brands appear to be traded-in more frequently than all American and Korean manufacturers combined.

“Tesla now gets European vehicles as trade-ins 22.2% of the time—more than double the industry average of 10.9%. Because of this uptick, the market is becoming flooded with more affordable cars from Mercedes, Audi, BMW and the like—without a corresponding increase in demand.

“We’re calling this The Tesla Effect. It’s strong enough to cause prices to plummet, because the market has an excess supply of used luxury cars.”

It is a great article and analysis from Capital One, even if it comes a few years after CleanTechnica was blasting this message out from microphones and keyboards around the world. Of course, they needed to wait on some proof and robust figures, not in the same market of forecasting and speculation we are sometimes in. The good news is that we are arriving. A short stop for some Supercharging and I’m sure we’ll be back with more exhilarating analysis and fast-paced note-taking.

In the meantime, we should perhaps recognize that Capital One wasn’t the first to use the term “Tesla Effect.” Almost exactly one year ago, Paul Sankey of Mizuho Securities used the term on CNBC while talking about oil stocks. Without a doubt, “Tesla effect” will mean different things to different industries. We’ll keep you updated as recognition of that effect soars.

About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself one word at a time. He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the CEO of Important Media. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, Canada, and Curaçao.

Zach has long-term investments in Tesla [TSLA] — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in this company and feels like it is a good cleantech company to invest in. But he offers no investment advice and does not recommend investing in Tesla or any other company.

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Tesla Adds Hibar Systems To Its List Of Acquisitions

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Published on October 6th, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

Tesla Adds Hibar Systems To Its List Of Acquisitions

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October 6th, 2019 by Steve Hanley

Hibar Systems, with headquarters in Ontario, was founded in the 1970s by German-Canadian engineer Heinz Barall. Since then, it has established itself as a leader in precision manufacturing of small cell batteries through a highly mechanized pump injection system.

Company logo may or may not have been designed in the 1990s. Credit: Hibar Systems

According to Electric Autonomy, the company has developed an international reputation in the battery industry, with manufacturing facilities in North America, Europe, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, and China. In a brochure, the company says the Chinese market accounted for over 50 percent of Hibar’s business in 2014.

Recognizing the huge demand for batteries in a Chinese market rapidly transitioning to electrification, Hibar created a subsidiary, Hibar China, in 2003. It now has two offices in China to manage Asian production.

Here’s where the story gets interesting. After September 16, the company’s website came down and was replaced with a generic information page. So, Electric Autonomy did a little digging. It began by looking at federal lobby registration documents on the government’s lobbyist registry database.

As of July 2019, Tesla Motors Canada listed no subsidiary companies authorized to lobby the government on various issues surrounding electric vehicles and infrastructure. On October 2, 2019, a new filing listed Hibar Systems as a subsidiary with direct interest in the outcome of Tesla’s undertakings with the government of Canada.

Tesla has not responded to a request for comment made by Electric Autonomy. When asked about the situation, Iain McColl, the president and CEO of Hibar Systems, said all inquiries should be directed to Tesla.

In the absence of any official information, we are left with what is hopefully informed speculation. Tesla has acquired Maxwell Technologies, a company with deep roots in China and advanced expertise in making supercapacitors. Hibar Systems has deep roots in China. Production of Tesla automobiles in China is set to begin by the end of this year.

Tesla has been hinting that it may produce its own battery cells in the near future. Elon Musk has also suggested recently that his company is on the verge of offering batteries with the ability to last 1 million miles. Lastly, Tesla has a 5 year contract for advanced battery research with Jeff Dahn of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

The conclusion? Tesla is committed to being a global leader in battery design and manufacturing now and into the foreseeable future. It has often been suggested that Tesla is not a car company that also makes batteries but rather a battery company that also makes cars.

While the world is fixated on the latest Tesla vehicle firmware updates and the arrival of the Model Y, the real news may be that Tesla is poised to dominate battery technology now and in the future. All the nattering nabobs of negativism in the investment community who wring their hands about Tesla missing its goal of delivering 100,000 vehicles in the last quarter (delivering 97,000 instead) may well be missing a larger point.

In a world where batteries are clearly the key to a zero carbon future, Tesla is a clear leader in energy storage technology and has every intention of remaining in the forefront of the industry.

About the Author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may lead him. His motto is, “Life is not measured by how many breaths we take but by the number of moments that take our breath away!” You can follow him on Google + and on Twitter.

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Tesla FUD: I Was Wrong

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Published on October 7th, 2019 |

by Frugal Moogal

Tesla FUD: I Was Wrong

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October 7th, 2019 by Frugal Moogal

The goal of this series is to examine current topics being written about Tesla [TSLA] that appear to be stirring up “Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt” (or FUD). The plan is to try to provide reasonable analysis about the validity of the claims. I generally do not link to the articles that “inspire” me to write this, as I do not wish to reward analysis I feel is poor with increased traffic. However, I will freely admit that my analysis may contain incorrect assumptions, and will do my best to acknowledge them in future articles.

A while ago, I started a semi-regular series in which I examined specific cases of Tesla FUD (or “Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt”). The plan was that I would look at a FUD topic that it seemed a ton of stock analysts were suddenly communicating about Tesla. The idea began because in my regular check-ins about how Tesla was doing, I would often find my newsfeed dominated by a bunch of writers claiming the same basic idea, and how that idea showed that Tesla was in big trouble.

The topics I chose were things that I felt were obvious but analysts didn’t see, which I found stunning. I also did write one article explaining why I felt that Tesla was a risky stock choice.

I haven’t kept up with the FUD as much as I had expected, at first because my personal life got incredibly busy, but lately because I haven’t seen the same rate of articles seemingly all focused on singular topics, and even when that happens, as in the case of the Smart Summon topic I recently covered, the articles aren’t directly discussing the impact that this would have on the stock price.

Recently, though, I have realized I made an error in those articles, one I wasn’t expecting. Before I get to that, I always put a bit of a boilerplate on my articles so people know where I’m coming from, so here we go:

“I remain a Tesla shareholder with 8 shares, with no intention to add to or sell that stake. I’ve mentioned in the past I think Tesla remains a risky stock, but one that I still believe has the potential to increase astronomically in the future, which is why I continue to hold a limited number of shares. I would not suggest anyone use the following article as their sole data point to decide to invest nor sell shares in Tesla.”

The Mistake
Let’s just get right to it. My boilerplate no longer applies, and in fact is wrong. As of this past Friday, I have added 7 additional shares to my stock portfolio, and I now own 15 total shares, worth as I type this Sunday night a total of $3,471.45. It’s by no means a huge position, and I do still think it’s somewhat risky, but I think there have been a ton of positive developments lately. Instead of going super deep into any of them, I am going to give you a quick bullet-point list of certain matters and how I interpret that data, which led me to my decision.

I would also caution you that I’m a voice on the internet writing behind a pseudonym. When you see that, it should be a red flag to independently verify the information in the article for yourself, as I could really be secretly holding 10,000 shares I’m hoping to bump up in price today to sell higher. I’m not, but I don’t have a way of proving that to you — and I suggest keeping that skepticism for all articles you read. I know I do.

Here’s what I see:

Q3 Performance — The end of Q3, while not quite reaching the 100,000 deliveries Elon Musk had been hoping for, proves that there is not a lack of demand for Tesla vehicles. The fact that Musk noted in an internal email that there were more orders than deliveries is even a further positive sign. Finally, based on everything I have seen with new orders, the pre-order backlog has been filled for over 9 months, even though apparently Wall Street is still baking a pre-order backlog into orders being filled now.
Q3 Sales Growth — Analysts were expecting a 12% reduction in US automotive sales in September across all manufacturers, and many companies reported sales significantly worse than expected. Sales in other major markets — notably, China and Europe — have said to have slumped considerably recently. So, while a 2,000 car increase from Q2 to Q3 may not seem like much, it shows that demand for Tesla has not been shrinking. Additionally, Musk noted that 110,000 orders had come in during the quarter a few weeks before the end of it, meaning that some demand went unfilled this quarter.
Gigafactory 3 and China — I expected the third Gigafactory to rise quickly, but I didn’t expect it to rise this quickly. It is exceedingly clear that China wants Tesla to succeed there, and to me it’s for really smart reasons. Tesla is seen as the world leader in EV technology. China wants to dominate the EV landscape in the future. Allowing Tesla to produce on the mainland will only accelerate China’s lead. Additionally, better EVs will allow China to phase out internal combustion engines quicker, further benefiting Tesla and positioning China to become a mass automobile exporter in the future.
China Demand — It’s easy to forget that the only Model 3s that China has been importing are the long-range variations of the Model 3. The Model 3 Standard Range (or Standard Range Plus) will start selling out of Gigafactoy 3, potentially by the end of this month. When Tesla starts manufacturing Model 3s, if it reaches 3,000 a week, that will add 39,000 additional cars each quarter. The margins expected from this would be significant.
Tesla Model Y Ramp — We don’t know much about this, but the glimpses I have seen show a Tesla that is laser focused on fixing the issues of the Model 3 ramp by designing a product easier to make. Additionally, analysis from people like Sandy Munro showed that there was a significant amount of extra steps in Model 3 production. If Tesla eliminates this, the Model Y could sell at margins significantly higher than the Model 3, and could start production significantly more smoothly too.
Battery Technology Breakthroughs — We know that Tesla recently patented a battery formula that is expected to create batteries good for more than one million miles. That could be extremely useful for either a fleet of robotaxis, or …
Tesla Semi Truck — I have a hunch the delayed start of production for the Tesla Semi is due in part to the battery technology breakthrough being integrated into it. That hunch could be wrong, but I find it striking that none of the companies that pre-ordered Tesla Semis have complained about the delay. It makes me feel like something positive is going on there, and I hope to see Semi production start soon.
Battery Grid Backup — Many proposed solar farms and wind farms are adding storage to smooth out their power delivery. Tesla’s grid backup has to be considered one of the leading utility-scale solutions, and it can be deployed extremely quickly. While I expect there to be a lot of competition here, having Tesla have such a public success in Australia should put them at the top of a lot of risk-averse utility lists for providing grid back up.
The Short Float — Conspiracy about who is shorting Tesla stock aside, since the end of July, the volume of Tesla shares sold on an average day has gone down, and so has the short interest — although the short interest hasn’t gone down much. This has resulted in their “Days To Cover” calculation having hovered above 6 days for the past month. The lowered volume increases the likelihood of a short squeeze on positive information coming out.
Smart Summon — I think the vast majority of people are underestimating the importance of Smart Summon in the quest to get to autonomous driving. It’s huge. Parking lots are a wildly complex problem to solve. People are overlooking it as a trick, but it’s a huge sign of things to come.
Climate Action — It’s become very clear in the last 6 months that the world is expecting our leaders to do something about climate change. Efforts are underway to encourage politicians to adopt stricter limits. Companies are leading the way, either by committing to invest and get their operations to carbon neutral or by divesting in fossil fuels. Companies that provide climate friendly solutions for energy generation, storage, and transportation will be called upon to partner with varied groups to provide those solutions. The recent announcement that Tesla is partnering with PepsiCo to provide a showcase facility with Semi Trucks, a large solar array, and battery backup for that solar array is an example. Tesla is the only company that can handle all of these facets at the same time.

On top of this, Tesla has potential positives via its new insurance option, the new Tesla Solar rental program, and its pickup truck to really move on tons of different fronts.

In Conclusion
When I wrote the article in June, almost everything above hadn’t happened, or wasn’t as clear as it was now that it was happening. The vision of Tesla seems to be coming together at a much more rapid pace than what analysts anticipated, and I expect further great news for the company on at least one or two major items on their upcoming earnings call.

I’ll also point out that I didn’t address a number of things in this article. I’m not expecting to see huge profitability this quarter. I’m not expecting to see a vastly increased margin on their vehicles. And I’m okay with that. If I get time, I’ll write a follow-up article on why those particular items concern me less today than they did even 4 months ago.

Maybe I’m right, and maybe I took a gamble that won’t pay off … but in future articles I may have to change what I write in my boilerplate, because if the share price remains similar to what it is now for long, I will definitely consider adding to my position in the near term.

Abou..

Tesla Model 3 = 24% of Small & Midsize Luxury Car Sales in USA*

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Published on October 7th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

Tesla Model 3 = 24% of Small & Midsize Luxury Car Sales in USA*

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October 7th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

The Tesla Model 3 has taken the US luxury car market by storm. When sales soared through the roof in the second half of 2018, making the Model 3 far and away the best selling luxury car in the country and the best selling car car of any type in terms of revenue, fans were excited for the launch of a new era. Critics, on the other hand, saw it as a temporary boom from early reservation holders that would soon be over, then resulting in a crash in Tesla sales, Tesla financials, and the company as a whole.

The core difference between the fans and the critics seems to rest in how these different followers of the company have expected the general public to respond to the Model 3 and its many benefits. Critics apparently expected a “meh” response. Tesla fans, of course, expected that the market could be huge for a car that has better performance and drive quality than a BMW 3 Series, much better tech than an Audi, and a potential cost of ownership of a Camry or Accord (depending on various individual and market circumstances).

At the moment, while the verdict isn’t final, things are looking good for Tesla and Tesla fans. We don’t know precise Tesla Model 3 sales figures in the US, and even educated estimates are very rough estimates until we get more data from Europe and China, but our expectation is that there were between 40,000 and 50,000 deliveries in the US in the third quarter. On the more conservative side, we’ve estimated 43,000 US deliveries. That blows away sales of any other midsize or small luxury car.

The next two charts are interactive charts. You can click through the circles near the top to go from quarter to quarter. Note that these interactive charts do not work well on all phones. In general, they are best viewed on a computer.

Pulling in data from almost all other auto companies, 43,000 third quarter (Q3) deliveries would mean that the Tesla Model 3 accounted for 27% of all small and midsize luxury car sales in the country (note that we are only talking about cars here, not pickup trucks and SUVs).

Based on these figures and earlier estimates, for the first three quarters of the year, the Model 3’s small & midsize luxury car market share was 24%. The model’s weakest quarter was the first quarter, when Tesla finally started shipping cars to Europe and China, and when US consumer demand was lower anyway due to a 50% reduction in the US federal tax credit for Tesla vehicles starting. (Tesla was the first company to deliver 200,000 electric vehicles in the country, which led to a tax credit reduction from $7500 to $3750 on January 1, 2019. On July 1, that went down to $1875. On January 1, 2020, unless Congress changes something — which seems unlikely with the grim reaper running the show and killing everything in sight in the Senate — the tax credit for Tesla buyers will go away completely, while all other automakers will still benefit from the tax credit because they were electrification laggards. I know, it’s odd.)

While a 24% market share — 1 out of every 4 sales in this market — seems wild, the thing that blows the minds of many Tesla Model 3 owners is that anyone is still buying an Audi A4, Volvo S60, BMW 320i, Mercedes C300, etc. These cars and others in this class don’t match up well against the Model 3 in any important way, and they are much worse in several ways. That said, we know the main reasons why Model 3 sales aren’t higher — most consumers aren’t aware of the car, know very little about the car, haven’t driven or ridden in the car, or have negative misinformation in their heads about Tesla and the Model 3.

One thing to keep in mind, especially now that Capital One has published about it, is that the resale values of used luxury car competitors are suffering now that the Model 3 is on the market in full flow. As resale values of these BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Acura, and other luxury cars decline, companies that lease them have to raise their leasing prices in order to cover costs — which makes them even less attractive. Consumers who buy these models and see them drop in value so deeply so rapidly are more likely to reconsider their brand allegiance and perhaps jump ship to Tesla.

Where will Tesla and its Model 3 go from here? We’ll keep you updated as more registration data come in from Europe, China, and elsewhere and as the market evolves.

*Tesla reports quarterly sales and does not break them out by country or region. Eventually, we get registration data from Europe, China (educated estimates at least), and Canada and can then make a more solid estimate of US sales for the quarter, as well as monthly sales estimates. However, it’s a bit early for all of that since we don’t have September numbers from most countries yet. Even our data-loving friend and contributor Jose Pontes of EV Volumes didn’t want to venture out too far on a limb and provide an early estimate that he might have to walk back. That said, looking at previous months’ data, September figures from the Netherlands and Norway, and deeper historical data, I feel comfortable estimating Model 3 sales between 40,000 and 50,000 in the US in the third quarter. For this report, I’ve settled on 43,000.

If you’d like to buy a Tesla Model 3 instead of a Camry, Accord, Civic, or Corolla, and you’d also like to get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging in the process, feel free to use my referral code: https://ts.la/zachary63404.

About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself one word at a time. He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the CEO of Important Media. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, Canada, and Curaçao.

Zach has long-term investments in Tesla [TSLA] — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in this company and feels like it is a good cleantech company to invest in. But he offers no investment advice and does not recommend investing in Tesla or any other company.

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Moroccan 7-Star Hotel Looks To Replace Bentleys With Tesla Model X Fleet

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Published on October 6th, 2019 |

by Guest Contributor

Moroccan 7-Star Hotel Looks To Replace Bentleys With Tesla Model X Fleet

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October 6th, 2019 by Guest Contributor

Originally posted on X Auto and EVANNEX.
By Iqtidar Ali

The ludicrously luxurious Royal Mansour Marrakech is a 7-star hotel in Morocco that’s decided to replace their Bentleys with Tesla Model X SUVs. It took efforts from a few Tesla enthusiasts in Morocco to convince the palace hotel to make the decision.

Tesla Model X all-electric SUV with falcon wing doors open, outside the Royal Mansour Palace Hotel in Marrackech (Twitter: Tesla Culinary Takeover)

The super luxury hotel utilized Bentleys to pick up and drop off their customers from the airport. Moving forward, they’ve decided to switch to cleaner, greener Tesla Model X electric vehicles for that purpose.

An inside look at the Royal Mansour Marrakech along with a glimpse at one of the Bentleys used to transport hotel guests (YouTube: InspectorLUX)

According to Khalil Amar, the hotel wants to buy the Model X SUVs as soon as Tesla launches its infrastructure in Morocco. Amar even tagged Elon Musk in a tweet requesting a local Tesla store, service center, and Supercharger station. In turn, Musk liked the tweet, which could mean (hopefully) the process for accelerating Tesla’s presence in Morocco may soon be underway.

Tesla enthusiasts convince Royal Mansour to switch to Tesla Model X EVs instead of Bentleys. (Twitter: Khalil Amar) A new way to welcome guests at the 7-star hotel. Tesla Model X electric SUV outside the Royal Mansour Palace Hotel in Marackech.

The hotel’s guests should feel special entering Tesla’s Model X via its falcon wing doors — stepping into a modern, sleek cabin instead of an 80s-style Bentley interior, guests complained according to Khalil.

The lowest price at this hotel is a whopping $1,700/night (via TripAdvisor.com). And it’s likely some percentage of the hotel’s well-heeled guests will eventually become Tesla owners after they have a first-hand experience with the all-electric SUV at the Royal Mansour.

It turns out other hotels are choosing Tesla as their vehicle of choice too. Guests at the Four Seasons Oahu, Mandarin Oriental Miami, and W Hotel Hong Kong can access to the hotel’s Teslas. Elon Musk’s pal, Richard Branson, also decided to make a Tesla the official house car at the Virgin Hotel. Even luxury buildings are now using Teslas (and Tesla chargers) to attract new customers and help create a greener future.

… and on a lighter note!

About the Author

Guest Contributor is many, many people. We publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. 😀

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Tesla Ramps Up Quest For Driverless Cars With Acquisition Of DeepScale

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Published on October 2nd, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

Tesla Ramps Up Quest For Driverless Cars With Acquisition Of DeepScale

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October 2nd, 2019 by Steve Hanley

Don’t think of self-driving cars as autonomous. Think of them as horizontal elevators. No one thinks it’s strange to get on a modern elevator, press a button, and be whisked to the floor of your choosing. Only if you are 85 years old and remember the days of elevator operators do you think self service elevators are at all unusual.

Credit: DeepScale

Autonomous cars can reduce congestion in world cities, eliminate most motor vehicle injuries and deaths, and free us up to play Tetris on our touchscreens as over the river and through the woods to Grandmother’s house we go. They also may prove to be hugely profitable for the companies that operate them.

No company on Earth has a more single-minded emphasis on self-driving cars than Tesla. You might think it has the best and brightest minds in the world of robotic transportation on its payroll, but apparently there are other companies out there who have people with equal or greater skill. Tesla has just acquired one of them, a company known as DeepScale.

According to CNBC, DeepScale was founded by Forrest Iandola, who obtained a PhD in electrical engineering and computer science at UC Berkeley, “where he worked on deep neural nets that could work on mobile devices with relatively small amounts of memory.” DeepScale’s technology is designed to help automakers use low wattage processors — the kinds that are now standard in most cars — to power very accurate computer vision. These processors work with sensors, mapping, planning, and control systems to allow cars to make sense of what’s going on around them.

On his LinkedIn page, Iandola announced he has joined Tesla as a senior staff machine learning scientist. “I joined the Tesla #Autopilot team this week. I am looking forward to working with some of the brightest minds in #deeplearning and #autonomousdriving,” he said.

CNBC points out that Tesla has suffered a brain drain of sorts in its self-driving unit recently. In May, Stuart Bowers, who headed the company’s self-driving program, departed for greener pastures after Elon Musk critiqued him and his group for not getting the results Musk wanted fast enough. Subsequently, according to The Information, 11 other members of the team — about 10% of the total — left Tesla as well after telling Musk they could not meet the timelines he demanded of them.

Sources tell CNBC that Tesla has acquired DeepScale in its entirety, although no details about how much Tesla paid for the tech startup have been revealed. Reportedly it had raised nearly $20 million in funding from prominent venture capital groups.

Tesla has not been shy about acquiring companies it thinks will help it achieve its mission of converting the world’s transportation system to electric vehicles. Previously it bought Grohmann Engineering, one of Germany’s most highly regarded engineering companies. More recently it acquired Maxwell Technologies, a company with vast experience with supercapacitors.

Elon Musk is relentless at pushing his people to achieve impossibly difficult results in unbelievably short periods of time. With DeepScale now in the fold, expect dramatic progress toward full self-driving cars to occur quickly — or else!

About the Author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may lead him. His motto is, “Life is not measured by how many breaths we take but by the number of moments that take our breath away!” You can follow him on Google + and on Twitter.

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Tesla Doubles Supercharging Referral Bonus To 2,000 Free Miles In Q3 Sales Push

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Published on September 10th, 2019 |

by Chris Boylan

Tesla Doubles Supercharging Referral Bonus To 2,000 Free Miles In Q3 Sales Push

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September 10th, 2019 by Chris Boylan

Tesla’s referral program has been an effective tool for the company to promote car sales. By using a referral code or link to order your new Tesla, both you (the buyer) and the referring owner get free Supercharging. Until today, that bonus was 1,000 miles of free Supercharging for buyer and referrer. But Tesla just announced that it is doubling that bonus to 2,000 free Supercharging miles for any Tesla car ordered on or after September 10, 2019 and delivered before October 1, 2019. Tesla has also extended this 2,000 mile Supercharging bonus to those who order a Tesla solar power system before October 1.

It looks like Tesla is hoping to goose car deliveries in the last month of the third quarter, so it’s offering this improved incentive to prospective new customers. Unlike previous referral bonuses which only required that the car be ordered by the deadline, this time, Tesla is requiring that the car be delivered by the deadline. So those who want to take advantage of this offer may need to select an available “inventory” model from their local Tesla showroom. Though, Tesla has tightened up its delivery rates lately, so it is possible that you could custom order a Tesla today and have it delivered with your exact specifications by the October 1 deadline.

If you are an existing Tesla owner, now may be a good time to share your referral code with friends and family. Better yet, take them for a test drive in your Tesla, and if you trust them, let them take the wheel. Nothing sells Tesla better than a Tesla. You can also use your own referral code if you’re buying a second (or fifth!) Tesla.

If you’re not yet a Tesla owner and are about to order one, contact a friend or family member who owns a Tesla and ask for their referral code. If you don’t know anyone with a Tesla, feel free to use my referral (below), so we can both benefit from the 2,000 miles for free charging.

Tesla Referral Link – Use This for a Supercharging bonus with purchase or lease of a Tesla Model 3, Model X, Model S or Tesla Solar Power System

Tesla has juiced up its referral program for the remainder of Q3, offering 2,000 free Supercharging miles with any new Tesla vehicle delivered by October 1, 2019.

If you order over the phone, you can use referral code “christopher55570.”

As a referring owner or new Tesla buyer, your free miles will show up in the “Loot box” in the Tesla mobile app. Miles earned in the Tesla Referral Program expire after six months. However, the expiration date is extended by an additional six months with each new referral (up to a maximum of 36 months from the most recent referral date). So you could theoretically get unlimited Supercharging for life as long as you refer a new Tesla buyer once every six months.

Tesla’s Supercharger network currently has over 14,000 charging stalls worldwide, with new charging stations added every month. You can get a quick top-off in 10–15 minutes or a full charge in about an hour. Charging rates vary per model and per charging station. Charging rate also depends on your battery’s current SOC (State of Charge) — the car charges much faster when the battery is close to empty and gradually slows as the battery nears its capacity.

If you map out a long-distance trip using Tesla’s onboard navigation, the car will include Supercharger stops along the way automatically, so you’ll never have to worry about running out of juice. You can also find current and planned Supercharger locations here on the Tesla website: www.tesla.com/supercharger

Supercharging your Tesla is like gassing up your car, only without the carbon guilt (or the smell). Photo by Chris Boylan.

Although Tesla didn’t specify details in the announcement, we expect the referral bonus to drop back to 1,000 free miles for cars delivered after October 1, 2019. Find out more about the Tesla Referral Program.

Follow me on Twitter @MrBoylan

About the Author

Chris Boylan is an EV and alternative fuel enthusiast who has been writing about technology since 2003.

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Elon Musk Announces Plaid Performance Upgrade To Tesla Model S, X, & Roadster!

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Published on September 12th, 2019 |

by Paul Fosse

Elon Musk Announces Plaid Performance Upgrade To Tesla Model S, X, & Roadster!

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September 12th, 2019 by Paul Fosse

Elon tweeted earlier in the evening a clear reference to the most powerful mode in Tesla’s upcoming Tesla Roadster: “The only thing beyond Ludicrous is Plaid.” In a followup tweet, he noted that the Plaid option would be available on the Model S and Model X as well as the Roadster.

When Marques Brownlee noted that we are going to need details, Elon replied “Soon.” Tantalizing.

We had to wait less than an hour for some of those juicy details. Elon announced a new powertrain that includes 3 motors instead of the 2 that have been standard on the Model S and Model X for some time. The next-generation Roadster has had a plan for 3 motors since it was unveiled as “One More Thing” at the Tesla Semi unveiling almost 2 years ago in November 2017.

For those of you who don’t know why Elon names performance modes things like “Ludicrous” or “Plaid,” these are pop culture references to a scene in the movie Spaceballs. The terminology is a play on a the warp speed effect in the popular 1960s TV show Star Trek.

There has been a lot of speculation about what Tesla’s response to the Porsche Taycan would be. We know that the new Raven Model S has enhanced Dynamic Air Suspension and a more powerful motor. A track mode that adjusted stability control and increased cooling for sustained power was certainly needed. The rumor that Tesla is moving the Model S and X to the 2170 battery cells used in the Model 3 instead of the 18650 format they use today is a persistent rumor, but not more than that according to a number of tweets and statements from Elon over the past year.

I didn’t imagine Tesla would go so far as to add a 3rd motor. This could potentially add as much as 50% more power. Normally, I would say the power would be limited to the output of the battery pack, but that would be forgetting that Tesla just closed on a company called Maxwell Technologies, which not only was working on technology that greatly reduces the cost of producing cells using dry electrodes but was best known for ultracapacitors. Quoting our article linked above, “If the economics made sense, a modest ultracapacitor array could work alongside the battery pack as a cache of energy, to reduce the load on (and/or work in parallel with) the main battery during short bursts of hard acceleration or strong regenerative braking.”

Screen capture from Tesla’s YouTube channel.

Today, Tesla released a video of a Model S driven by an amateur driver setting a new record for a 4 door sedan at Laguna Seca during advanced R&D testing of the Model S Plaid powertrain and chassis. Is that the same car or setup that Tesla shipped to Germany for the Nürbergring Lap?

It is unclear from the tweet if the Model S and Model X would get the identical powertrain as the new Roadster (which would still be much faster because it is smaller and lighter) or just a similar design. I’m sure there will be much speculation over the next year on this subject. Just as I was thinking there wasn’t much left to do with the Model S and X since they are so fast already, I once again greatly underestimated the determination and competitive spirit Elon Musk and Tesla continue to display. (Editor’s note: ditto.)

Use my Tesla referral link to get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging on a Tesla Model S, Model X, or Model 3 (you can’t use it on the Model Y yet), here’s the link: https://ts.la/paul92237 (but if someone else helped you, please use their link).

About the Author

Paul Fosse A Software engineer for over 30 years, first developing EDI software, then developing data warehouse systems. Along the way, I've also had the chance to help start a software consulting firm and do portfolio management. In 2010, I took an interest in electric cars because gas was getting expensive. In 2015, I started reading CleanTechnica and took an interest in solar, mainly because it was a threat to my oil and gas investments. Follow me on Twitter @atj721 Tesla investor. Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/paul92237

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Tesla Insurance Launches, Claims To Save Owners Up To 30% On Premiums

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Published on August 28th, 2019 |

by Kyle Field

Tesla Insurance Launches, Claims To Save Owners Up To 30% On Premiums

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August 28th, 2019 by Kyle Field

Tesla just officially launched its highly anticipated Tesla Insurance offering for Tesla owners in California. It promises to save owners up to 30% on their premiums compared to traditional automotive insurance companies. Tesla Insurance also sets the company up to provide the end-to-end vehicle purchase, service, fueling, and insurance services in a buildup to the launch of the Tesla Network. Talk about integrated.

Tesla Insurance is initially offering “comprehensive coverage and claims management to support our customers in California,” with other states being added after the company works the initial bugs out of the system via customers in its home state.

Saving cash is great and the opportunity to save even more money by getting in the insurance bed with the automotive manufacturer comes with its own series of potential risks and benefits. First off, Tesla presumably knows its vehicles better than anyone else, so can initiate claims, start shipping parts, and schedule repairs faster than anyone else.

Getting insurance through Tesla also puts the company on the hook for getting owners back into their vehicles as quickly as possible after an accident. In my mind, this is the real incentive for signing up for Tesla Insurance, as stories of long delays to get Tesla vehicles repaired after an accident are a dime a dozen on any internet forum.

Image courtesy: Tesla

The prospect of having an integrated pool of Tesla Insurance loaner vehicles for customers getting vehicles repaired is also attractive, as Tesla wouldn’t have to pay an outside rental company to provide a combustion vehicle. It could instead keep owners in a Tesla vehicle in the zero-emission Tesla ecosystem. It could even use the loaner process as a tool to encourage owners to trade up and get into a new, higher-performance Tesla while their vehicle is being repaired.

The lower prices come from Tesla’s direct knowledge of the passive safety of its vehicles as well as the active safety technology present in every Tesla rolling off the line for the past couple of years. Tesla has more nuanced knowledge about the safety equipment in each specific vehicle as well as the statistical safety of similar vehicles on the road, giving it a much more accurate ability to price in or out the risk of an accident. The lower premiums reflect what Tesla has been telling us all along about the safety of its vehicles. When a vehicle is 4–6 times less likely to get into an accident than the average vehicle driving around in the US today, that means lower insurance costs.

Tesla Insurance is currently only available to owners of a Tesla Model S, X, 3, or Roadster in California, with the prospect of further improving the total cost of ownership of a Tesla compared to other vehicles. In other words, this makes the all-in cost of electric vehicles that much more accessible to people in California, and around the world eventually.

Image courtesy: Tesla

The new offering can be added to an owner’s Tesla account in less than a minute. After logging into the Tesla Account, all that’s needed is a confirmation of the owner’s address and driver’s license information. Then a preliminary quote pops out. Coverages, deductibles, and the like can be adjusted as needed and the price adjusts accordingly.

For customers purchasing a new Tesla, Insurance can be added as soon as a VIN is assigned to the order, making the pickup of a new vehicle that much easier.

Image courtesy: Tesla

Importantly, Tesla specifically notes that it will not use or record vehicle data, including GPS and vehicle camera footage, when pricing insurance. (Doing so, it seems, would be illegal.)

For more information about Tesla Insurance, head over to the official website, the blog post introducing it, or my personal favorite, the Frequently Asked Questions page.

Also, this article from our in-house insurance expert is mandatory (recommended) reading: Tesla Insurance: Information Arbitrage To Save You Money.

Source: Tesla

About the Author

Kyle Field I'm a tech geek passionately in search of actionable ways to reduce the negative impact my life has on the planet, save money and reduce stress. Live intentionally, make conscious decisions, love more, act responsibly, play. The more you know, the less you need. TSLA investor.

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