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Tesla Gigafactory 1 Production Increase Translates To 81% More Powerwall Deployments

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Published on July 26th, 2019 |

by Kyle Field

Tesla Gigafactory 1 Production Increase Translates To 81% More Powerwall Deployments

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July 26th, 2019 by Kyle Field

Image courtesy Tesla

Tesla’s energy business (Tesla Energy) often ends up playing second fiddle to the admittedly more exciting automotive business, but that doesn’t mean it’s not growing. In Q2, Tesla increased deployments of its 13.5 kWh Powerwall 81%, according to the Q2 2019 investor letter, to a record 415MWh.

Tesla said in the letter that the sharp increase in Powerwall deployments means they have now been installed at more than 50,000 sites around the world. A Tesla spokesperson confirmed that Powerpack installations also increased in Q2 in parallel to the increase in Powerwall deployments.

The update is some of the first tangible evidence we have that the company is getting better at balancing battery cell production at its Sparks, Nevada Gigafactory 1 with downstream demand in both its automotive and energy businesses. The automotive side of the business continues to grow like gangbusters, nearly doubling the existing deployed fleet every year, and now Tesla Energy is getting in on a bigger piece of the Gigafactory 1 pie.

It is this exponential growth that makes the cell production and downstream demand such a challenge. The company has increased its battery cell production capacity at Gigafactory 1 to around 28 gigawatt-hours, according to CEO Elon Musk on the Q2 2019 earnings call. That figure has the factory bumping up against its original target production capacity of 35GWh a year. (The target has risen much higher since then.)

Tesla Grohmann Automation equipment. Image courtesy Tesla

GF1 production expansion came not only from Panasonic’s side of the business in cell production, but also at the module level, where a new module line designed by Tesla Grohmann Automation “enabled a step change in energy storage production.”

The solar side of Tesla’s Energy business continues to dwindle, with solar retrofit deployments of traditional solar panel systems declining to 29MW in Q2. Tesla made some headway in streamlining the sales process for its energy products in parallel to automotive sales, but the company has yet to deliver on the promise of scaled production and adoption of solar.

The Solar Roof is perhaps the ultimate golden egg for Tesla. Some of us believe (and some don’t) that the Lego-esque snap-together roof replacement that just happens to generate solar energy is the future of rooftops everywhere. Deployments of the Solar Roof are growing, according to reports from numerous Tesla employees, but we have yet to see concrete financials from the company in support of this progress. Also, there is no apparent solution underway for dropping sales of rooftop solar panel systems. Presumably, Tesla needs to find more ways to capitalize on the synergies between its automotive business and its solar power system business.

Do you have any other thoughts on the Tesla Energy portions of this technology company out of Silicon Valley?

If you’re in the market for a Tesla, feel free to use my Tesla Referral code for your purchase: http://ts.la/kyle623 . Doing so gives the buyer (that would be you) and me 1,000 miles of free Supercharging credit and allows us to cover Tesla even better in the future.

About the Author

Kyle Field I'm a tech geek passionately in search of actionable ways to reduce the negative impact my life has on the planet, save money and reduce stress. Live intentionally, make conscious decisions, love more, act responsibly, play. The more you know, the less you need. TSLA investor.

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7 Top Takeaways From Tesla’s Q2 Conference Call

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Published on July 25th, 2019 |

by Matt Pressman

7 Top Takeaways From Tesla’s Q2 Conference Call

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July 25th, 2019 by Matt Pressman

Originally posted on EVANNEX.

To recap the second quarter, Tesla issued its shareholder letter and held its quarterly conference call with Wall Street analysts. The news, as always, is a mixed bag. While improving over its $702M loss in Q1, Tesla still missed Wall Street’s expectations, posting a Q2 loss of $408M. Traders can expect a bumpy ride in the short term. That said, there were some highlights worth considering for those long-term TSLA investors.

1. Biggest Bank Balance Ever
Tesla generated $614 million of free cash flow in Q2. Combine that with the $2.4 billion raised in a public offering of equity and convertible bonds and the company ended the quarter with $5 billion in the bank — the highest level in Tesla’s history. “This level of liquidity puts us in a comfortable position as we prepare to launch Model 3 production in China and Model Y production in the US,” explained Elon Musk.

Photo by Cynthia Shahan | CleanTechnica

2. Record Deliveries of Model 3
Tesla produced 87,000 cars in the quarter and delivered a record 95,200 of them in Q2, generating about $6.3 billion in revenue. “Tesla is expanding at an exponential rate,” Musk said. And demand continues to be strong. The company noted, “Model 3 [was] once again the best-selling premium vehicle in the US, outselling all of its gas-powered equivalents combined.”

Model 3 takes off. Image by Zach Shahan | CleanTechnica

3. Less Emphasis On S & X
As focus moves to Model Y and Tesla’s Pickup, S and X sales have slowed. Musk believes many have been on the sidelines awaiting a refresh. “There may be a false expectation in the market that there’s, like, some big overhaul coming for S and X … like some radical redesign coming, which is why I emphasized publicly that this is not the case,” Musk explained. “The Model S and X today are radically better” than prior versions of the car.

Editor’s note: I have heard frequently for several quarters about expectations for a big Model S & X interior refresh. We never published about this because we never received solid evidence of it. However, it has seemed to me that many Tesla followers have been treating it as a given since at least sometime in 2018. I personally do not think a short tweet shooting down the rumor and a couple of notes on conference calls is enough to extinguish the expectations. I think Tesla needs to more explicitly and “loudly” explain that there is no big refresh coming. I’d package the information in a blog post about how much the S & X have changed over the years and how much better a 2019 Model S is than a 2015 Model S (something I can attest to from personal ownership experience). —Zach Shahan

4. China Gigafactory Progress
According to Tesla, the Gigafactory in Shanghai “continues to take shape,” and remains on track to begin production of a “Model 3 line with capacity of 150,000 units per year.” The company also said, “Given Chinese customers bought well over a half-million mid-sized premium sedans last year, this market poses a strong long-term opportunity for Tesla.”

Inside Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory. Image courtesy Tesla

5. JB Straubel Transitions
CTO JB Straubel will be “transitioning” to an advisory role after more than 15 years at Tesla. “I’m not going anywhere,” Straubel said during the call, adding he’ll work closely with Drew Baglino, vice president of technology, who’s slated to take over the roll. “I want to thank JB for his fundamental role in creating and building Tesla,” Musk said. “If we hadn’t had lunch in 2003, Tesla wouldn’t exist, basically,” Musk added.

6. Service and Supercharger Growth
Tesla stated, “we added 101 vehicles to our Mobile Service fleet and opened 25 new store and service locations… [and] Supercharger capacity has grown to roughly 1,600 charging locations worldwide.” Musk said, “Service scales not just with new production, but as the whole fleet” expands worldwide. And as demand grows, Tesla’s CFO Zach Kirkhorn explained a larger “focus on service and supercharging, as opposed to a retail presence.”

Tesla Model S, Model 3, and Model X charging at Tesla Supercharger in Florida. Photo by Zach Shahan | CleanTechnica

7. Tesla Model Y is on Track
Prep for Model Y production in Fremont is already underway according to Tesla. The company highlighted, “a significant overlap of components between Model 3 and Model Y, [therefore] we are able to leverage existing manufacturing designs in the development of the Model Y production facilities.” The outlook? Tesla stated, “Due to the large market size for SUVs, as well as higher ASPs, we believe Model Y will be a more profitable product than the Model 3.”

About the Author

Matt Pressman is all about Tesla. He’s a TSLA investor, pre-ordered the Model 3, and loves driving the family's Model S and Model X company cars. As co-founder of EVANNEX, a family business specializing in aftermarket Tesla accessories, he’s served as a contributor/editor of Electric Vehicle University (EVU) and the Owning Model S and Getting Ready for Model 3 books. He writes daily about Tesla and you can follow his work on the EVANNEX blog.

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Tesla Files Patent Application For Die-Cast Unibody Machine

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Published on July 23rd, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

Tesla Files Patent Application For Die-Cast Unibody Machine

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July 23rd, 2019 by Steve Hanley

We don’t know who Matthew Kenneth Kallas is, but he must have spent a lot of time playing with Mattel die-cast model cars in his formative years. Now he works for Tesla and is listed as the inventor of US Patent Application #15874348, described as a “Multi-Directional Unibody Casting Machine For A Vehicle Frame And Associated Methods,” according to PatentScope. Feast your eyes on the illustration below to get a sense of what Kallas has in mind.

Credit: US Patent Office via PatentScope

This one may be a little hard to wrap your head around unless you are a mechanical engineer. Basically, using die casting technology to make the unibody frame of an automobile — a process that has been done using metal stampings for 50 years — could eliminate many of the steps in the traditional assembly process, saving time and cutting costs.

Today, a collection of stampings is welded, riveted, and bonded into a completed unibody structure in a process that can involve dozens if not hundreds of steps. If the number of steps could be reduced, the entire process could become much more efficient. Here’s more from the patent filing:

“[H]igh-pressure die casting is a metal casting process that has been in use for over a hundred years. Die casting typically includes forcing or injecting molten metal under high pressure into a mold cavity. The mold cavity is formed using two die portions which have been machined into a shape of the desired casting. Depending on metal material type being used, a hot or cold chamber die casting machine may be used, as well as squeeze casting methods, in addition to over-molding, where alloy is casted over/around existing substrates in order to achieve higher structural properties of an end product.

“One die portion is called a ‘cover die portion’ and the other die portion an ‘ejector die portion,’ and where they meet ‘the parting line.’ Conventionally, the cover die portion includes a sprue or shot hole configured to allow molten metal to flow into the dies from an injector fluidly coupled to the sprue or shot hole, and is attached to a stationary platen of a casting machine. The ejector die portion typically includes ejector pins and/or a plate to push the casting out of the ejector die portion (e.g., after solidification and the dies open), and is attached to a movable platen of the casting machine.

“Typically, in the context of vehicle frame manufacturing and the die casting process, multiple die casting machines are each used to cast different components of a vehicle frame. For example, a single die casting machine cell in a factory may be dedicated to casting a single frame component. These components from each casting machine are then assembled or secured together (e.g., via welding) by factory workers or robotic systems to form a vehicle frame (e.g., a unibody vehicle frame).

“Because die casting generally involves higher capital costs relative to other casting and manufacturing processes including assembly of many individual components (e.g., due to high costs of casting equipment and metal dies), there remains a need for an improved die casting machine and associated methods thereof, particularly as related to casting a vehicle frame to reduce work required to achieve a final assembled product.

“The present disclosure describes embodiments of die casting machines and methods thereof that may reduce build time, operation costs, costs of manufacturing, factory footprint, factory operating costs, tooling costs, and/or quantity of equipment. Such casting machines may reduce a number of casting machines or actual castings required to cast a complete or substantially complete vehicle frame (e.g., to less than six, less than five, less than four, less than three, less than two, or one casting machine(s)).

“The present disclosure relates generally to manufacturing and assembling a vehicle frame, and more particularly to a multi-directional die casting machine for casting a vehicle frame and associated methods thereof such multi-directional casting machines may be suitable for casting a unibody vehicle frame, and more specifically for an electrical vehicle unibody frame. In some embodiments, multiple portions of the vehicle frame may be integrally formed or casted without the need for further assembly and attachment (e.g., welding, rivets, etc.).

“This may reduce a number of castings and/or steps for manufacturing or casting a substantially complete vehicle frame. For example, the die casting machine as described herein may reduce a number of casting machines or actual castings required to cast a complete or substantially complete vehicle frame (e.g., to less than six, less than five, less than four, less than three, less than two, or to one casting(s) or casting machine(s)). Accordingly, this may reduce costs associated with manufacturing including, but not limited to, factory operating costs, tooling costs, time, and other equipment and labor costs.”

Among other things, Tesla is interested in disrupting the world of manufacturing by going back to first principles and finding ways to make better products in less time for less money. Elon Musk calls it “building the machine that makes the machine.” The lessons learned from the Fremont factory and Gigafactory 1 in Nevada are already being applied to Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai.

There’s a reason why Tesla will be able to manufacture Model 3s in China less than a year after it broke ground on its new factory, while the Lucid factory in Arizona will need twice as long to begin series production. It’s hard to keep track of how many ways Tesla is ahead of other auto manufacturers.

One has to wonder how making a die cast unibody structure impacts the cost of repairs (or if repairs are even possible). Die cast metal tends to be fairly brittle and not easily reshaped or repaired. No doubt Elon and his minions have already thought of that and have a plan in place, one that will shock and amaze the “business as usual” crowd.

Keep in mind that just because a company files a patent application does not mean the item being patented will ever be used in actual production. Lots of ideas get patented just to establish a timeline of who thought of an idea first and who has exclusive rights to it in the marketplace. Will Teslas ever be manufactured using this die-cast unibody method? Nor necessarily, but they might, and that’s the important part.

About the Author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may lead him. His motto is, “Life is not measured by how many breaths we take but by the number of moments that take our breath away!” You can follow him on Google + and on Twitter.

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Tesla Gigafactory Bigger Than You Expect — Truly Gigantic

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Published on July 21st, 2019 |

by Guest Contributor

Tesla Gigafactory Bigger Than You Expect — Truly Gigantic

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July 21st, 2019 by Guest Contributor

Originally published on EVANNEX.
By Charles Morris

“It’s big,” says every journalist who has visited Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory (and more than a few who haven’t). “It’s a big place. Really big.”

“How big is it?” shouts the audience in unison.

Well, it’s currently a 1.9-million-square-foot building with 5.3 million square feet of operating space on three floors. And so far, it’s only 30% complete. When it reaches its full size, it will have the largest footprint of any building in the world. Tech journalist Larry Magid recently visited, and assumed that a promised tour of the outside would be on foot. Hardly. “I was driven around in a van, and even that took a while,” says he.

Mr. Magid did much more than marvel at the Gigafactory’s size. He scored an interview with Tesla VP of Operations Chris Lister, which you can listen to below or on Magid’s Larry’s World blog (Magid also did a write-up in the Mercury News).

Magid’s interview with Tesla’s VP of Operations at the Tesla Gigafactory (Source: CBS News Radio via Larry’s World)

At the Gigafactory, Tesla and its partner Panasonic work together to make battery packs for Model 3, as well as for the Powerwall and Powerpack stationary storage products. Panasonic makes the cells — cylinders about the size of AA batteries, unceremoniously dubbed “2170 cells” because they measure 21 mm in diameter and 70 mm in length. Tesla assembles the cells into long strings it calls bandoliers, assembles these into modules, and assembles the modules into finished packs. Each pack contains 3,500–4,500 cells, depending on the vehicle variant it’s destined for.

Cooling tubes transport coolant throughout the pack to keep the cells within the optimum temperature range. The finished battery packs are transported by trucks (including a few Tesla Semis) to Tesla’s Fremont factory, where each one fulfills its destiny as the heart of a new electric vehicle.

Many consumers are skeptical about the longevity of EV batteries — they know from experience that cell phone batteries tend to wear out after a few years. However, Tesla batteries are built to last. Lister says Tesla has tested battery packs that have gone 100,000 miles with minimal capacity loss.

Screenshot from Tesla video.

Tesla also builds the drive unit for Model 3, which integrates the vehicle’s motor and inverter and is usually described as the size of a large watermelon, here at the Gig.

Tesla has around 7,000 employees (95% of them Nevadans) at the Gigafactory, and Panasonic another 5,000 or so.

Why the massive scale? As Lister reminds Magid, Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to a sustainable energy and transport system. That will require an exponential increase in global battery production, and Tesla is leading the way. The Gigafactory was designed on a gigantic scale in order to accommodate future battery demand (Elon Musk has said that, to support an all-electric transport system, several Gigafactories will be needed around the world). As the volume of battery production rises, economies of scale will allow Tesla to offer ever-more-affordable vehicles.

Sources: Larry’s World, Mercury News, CBS News Radio

About the Author

Guest Contributor is many, many people. We publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. 😀

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Elon Musk Tells Motor Trend About The Origins Of The Tesla Model S

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Published on July 18th, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

Elon Musk Tells Motor Trend About The Origins Of The Tesla Model S

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July 18th, 2019 by Steve Hanley

Elon Musk recently told Motor Trend in an interview that the auto industry is slow to evolve. Boy, howdy. Let’s say you’re a car company and raking in record profits year after year by selling cars that are pretty much the same today as they were 5, 10, or even 20 years ago. Oh, maybe you add a crease here or tweak a tail light design there, but underneath the sheet metal, it’s same old, same old. And people are still piling into dealer showrooms begging you to take their money. Where is your incentive to change?

Credit: Tesla

When the Tesla Model S was first introduced, almost everyone in the car business yawned and went back to doing what they had been doing for decades. And yet (or because of that), 7 years later, the Tesla Model S is still the quickest production sedan Motor Trend has ever tested. The magazine asked Musk during an interview at the company’s southern California design studio why that’s the case.

“‘Well I don’t know,’ Musk answered. ‘It’s surprising to us. I thought the industry would have had cars that are competitive to the Model S well before now because as we were talking about—the Model S debuted in 2009, and even if people thought, “Well, that’s an impossible car to build,” which conventional wisdom said that the Model S was an impossible car to build, and there were many articles written to that effect.

“‘But once we started delivering them to customers and they were approved by the regulators and met all of the safety requirements, it’s like, the Model S has got the best safety rating that NHTSA had ever tested of any car. I really expected that there would be within maybe three years or something, we’d have something that was better than the original Model S. But I guess the car industry is just fairly slow to evolve, and it didn’t take electric vehicles really seriously until 2015, maybe 2014 you could say.'”

Motor Trend has just named the Tesla Model S its Ultimate Car Of The Year (COY). Of all the 70 COY awards the magazine has provided, it is the ne plus ultra of the lot. What is it about the Model S — and all Tesla automobiles — that stirs such passion in people?

“‘[T]he overarching goal is, what can we do to make you fall in love with this car? And I think the biggest thing about Tesla and the cars that we make is that this is not designed by a soulless corporation. There’s not like some finance spreadsheet or something like that with some market analysis. There’s none of that.

“‘Obviously we need to bring in more money than we spend, but at the end of the day, we want to make a car that we love, that hits us in the heart, that makes you feel. And how many of these cars, they have no soul. They make all these cars that have no soul or no heart, and they wonder why nobody feels anything for them. Why should they?'”

Looking back at the original Model S design, which was created in a tent inside SpaceX headquarters in 2008 and revealed to the public in 2009, Motor Trend asked Musk what emotional reaction he has to seeing that original car again? “Heartache,” he says. “We gave our heart to this car for sure. Everything, just like, all in.”

Chief designer Franz von Holzhausen took that statement a little further. “It kind of felt like we jumped out of the airplane and then decided we need to figure out how to get a team of people to design the parachute. So we were trying to find the people and design and create the product all kind of mid-flight, which is somewhat perilous. We put everything into it.” Perilous seems a little too mild for what was going on at the time.

What about that enormous touchscreen inside the Model S, an industry first?

“‘The basic principle was, it’s a computer on wheels. So if you had a laptop on wheels you want to have a big screen, you want to have a touch interface, and you want to have over-the-air [updating] capability. Then that gives you a lot of freedom to keep improving the car with software. The over-the-air stuff, we started doing that even on Roadster.

“‘It’s just kind of like being normal in that, what is normal for a consumer trying to buy this would be that you can get an over-the-air update. PCs have been doing over-the-air or connected software updates for 30 years or whatever. So if you are going to make a computer on wheels, then you should obviously be able to connect to the internet, you should be able to update it, it needs to have at least the computer capability of an advanced laptop, and then you’ve got your laptop on wheels. … If you live in Silicon Valley, you definitely want a software-upgradable, always-connected [car]. Seems crazy not to.'”

The conversation then turned to Tesla’s role in the future. Here Musk reiterated the litany of upcoming products — Tesla Semi, Model Y, Tesla Pickup, more factories, and so forth. But what really fires his imagination is autonomy.

“‘I think the autonomy is really going to transform automotive. … I mean since the major innovations in production that Henry Ford and others came up with, the next two massive disruptions for cars are electrification and autonomy, and electrification and autonomy are happening at the same time very basically. So the future will be all electric, all autonomous. I don’t mean some electric, some autonomous, I mean all electric, all autonomous. And in fact, I would really caution someone against buying a gasoline or diesel car or truck because it will have poor resale value in the future.

“‘Let’s say it is 100 years ago, 1919, and a lot of people were still buying horses, and there was like this new radical thing called cars. Essentially you have this Model T or whatever, and people are like, “That’s weird automobile technology that will never catch on,” and they bought a horse, so that was a mistake. So trust me when I say the future is electric autonomy. So you want to buy a car that is electric, and you want to buy a car that is capable of autonomy, which a Tesla is. This will, I think, become very obvious within a few years.

“‘It will change things quite a lot. If things were autonomous and cars are in use a lot, the fundamental utility of a car is right now is maybe 10 or 12 hours a week. Let’s estimate an hour and a half, two hours a day. With a shared autonomous fleet, that goes up to like 50 or 60 hours on average, maybe more. So then the cars will be used a lot more. You’ll want probably dynamic personalization, so it’s like you step into the car, it knows who you are, it knows everything you want, and the car reconfigures itself automatically to all your preferences. So you could step into any car, and that’s how it would be.'”

Von Holzhausen put a punctuation mark on Musk’s prediction. “I also think Model S proved that an electric vehicle can be beautiful and fun to drive and something you desire to own. And I think Tesla will do that with autonomy, as well. So it’s not going to be a scary, ugly, dystopian future. It’s going to be a fun, beautiful experience. And I think all of our products will have that.”

Lots of industry executives saw the original Model S and did not realize what their eyes were telling them. It has taken nearly a decade for car companies to fully embrace electric cars and some — mostly in the US — are still determined to ignore the new reality. The EV revolution is just getting started in earnest and already another transportation revolution — autonomous cars — is gathering momentum.

Traditional car companies are far more willing to embrace self-driving cars because transportation as a service is seen as a major new source of profits. In theory, autonomy could apply to conventional cars with gasoline or diesel engines, but in reality electric and autonomous go together like baseball and hot dogs. It’s possible that autonomy will accelerate the EV revolution in a way that no one could have predicted at decade ago.

A brave new world of transportation is upon us, fostered by the vision of Elon Musk and brought to life by the people of Tesla. When the Model S was revealed in 2009, I think nobody could have predicted how that car would upend the auto industry. Now autonomy is poised to disrupt conventional wisdom even more. Some of those traditional companies are going to fall by the wayside over the next 5 to 10 years largely because one man refused to be dissuaded from following his dream.

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Tesla Opens A Service Center In Poland!

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Published on July 18th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

Tesla Opens A Service Center In Poland!

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July 18th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

My Polish friends (and I) have long been waiting for a Tesla service center in Poland. Thankfully, we now have one. Apparently as a birthday gift for my eldest daughter (who does love Tesla), the company announced via email the other day that a service center opened up in Warsaw.

There’s not much more information that this. The email text is as follows:

As our network of Tesla owners in Poland continues to grow, we’re excited to announce the opening of our Service Center in Warsaw.

The new location provides a convenient way for you to access quick and seamless service. Simply log in to your Tesla app, scroll down to ‘Schedule Service’ and select your preferred appointment date.

We look forward to welcoming you.

There are not a lot of Tesla owners in Poland yet, but I expect there soon will be. This is a very tech focused country and I’m sure there’s a large number of Tesla and SpaceX fans. The cost of living here is lower than in countries to the west (Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, etc.), which means salaries are lower, but the Model 3 Standard Range Plus should be well within the budget of many Polish residents.

Incidentally, I spotted a Model 3 in Poland for the first time on Sunday, and I spotted a Model S on the highway on the day the new service center was announced. Sadly, the Model 3 I spotted had already suffered a bit of damage. It may be making one of the first trips to the Warsaw service center.

The first Tesla Model 3 I’ve spotted in Poland.

The friend of mine, a cofounder of Tesla Shuttle (which I am slo cofounder of), added a little more context to the news:

Maybe interesting is that just now Tesla is entering countries behind the Iron Curtain — recently, a service center was opened in Prague (the Czech Republic), now Warsaw, and next Budapest (Hungary) is planned.

However, still no sales center here.

It would definitely be nice to walk into the first Tesla store in Poland, but as people generally just buy a Tesla online, the store is really just to give customers a touch and taste. Poland is a large country with several big cities far apart, and many people never go to Warsaw. I think it could be smarter for Tesla to have a series of its pop-up stores give test drives in a dozen or so Polish locations. Though, I know opinions on this topic vary a great deal.

If you have collected reports of any more Tesla service center openings in recent weeks, we’d love to hear about them. In the meantime, we’ll just hope that our Polish Tesla doesn’t need to take a trip to the new service center!

All photos by Zach Shahan for CleanTechnica & Tesla Shuttle

The first Supercharger station in Poland.

About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself (and other species). He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the president of Important Media and the director/founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, and Canada.

Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG, & ABB — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in these particular companies and feels like they are good cleantech companies to invest in. But he offers no professional investment advice and would rather not be responsible for you losing money, so don't jump to conclusions.

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Digesting Elon Musk’s Full Self Driving (Robotaxi) Tweetstorm

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Published on July 16th, 2019 |

by Chanan Bos

Digesting Elon Musk’s Full Self Driving (Robotaxi) Tweetstorm

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July 16th, 2019 by Chanan Bos

July 16th, Elon Musk tweetstorm number: (ERROR system overload).

Tesla CEO Elon Musk today tweeted several times regarding Autopilot and Full Self Driving (FSD). As we had heard before, once FSD is successfully implemented and Tesla can start operating robotaxis, the price of Tesla cars will increase significantly. We recently analyzed that information to put it into some potential future context, since it is not immediately clear how this practically fits into Tesla’s grand production and sales scheme. But a short TL;DR (too long; didn’t read) is as follows:

In about 3–6 years from now, Tesla could start releasing a robotaxi-tailored model, one without a steering wheel and to be sold at a higher price than the cars on the market today. This is something we at CleanTechnica are calling “Tesla Model Omega.”

Tesla hasn’t announced such a plan, but we’re getting more details on what Elon expects to change in coming years as FSD is implemented.

As you can see, there is still plenty of skepticism around autonomy and Elon’s claim that Teslas bought today will likely be appreciating assets. The important thing is, if Tesla vehicles suddenly become capable of robotaxi service with a software update, the value of a used (or new) Tesla should suddenly rise, even above 2018 or 2019 purchase prices.

What the tweet above reveals is that Elon believes Tesla cars to be worth between $100,000 and $200,000 once FSD is activated. Although, why Elon chose “~12 hours/week to ~60 hours/week” remains a bit of a mystery. While the 12 hour figure would equal just slightly under 2 hours a day and represents the daily commute of most people, the 60 hour figure would equal about 8 and a half hours per day, which is almost equal to a 9-to-5 job but would mean the car doesn’t drive in the evening and/or doesn’t drive on the weekends. 60 hours a week means the car stands idle quite a bit.

The assumptions here have major implications. Most importantly, perhaps, it determines how much a robotaxi will be worth. (People won’t want to pay more than they expect to make on the car.) Further, it raises the question, how many robotaxis does the world ultimately need?

This tweet above was quite puzzling and caused some controversy between CleanTechnica staff. However, after careful consideration, the team came to the following conclusion. (Note that sticker price is “the advertised retail price of a car.”) Elon Musk doesn’t have a specific price point in mind that Tesla robotaxis will be sold for, but the company will continue to be responsive to the market, and to avoid scalpers buying up all of Tesla’s cars and reselling them for more money without serving any real service to society, Tesla will raise prices as the market shows a need for it. (Tesla can then pump those greater profits into faster growth, presumably.)

From all communications up till now, it seems the Model 3 will remain on the market long after FSD is activated and Tesla launches a robotaxi network. Nonetheless, it is logical that something like the “Model Omega” is inevitable and is just a matter of time.

This entire discussion has also led Elon to reveal that the price of the FSD package will increase by ~$1000 in one month Elon justified the price increase by claiming that new features are going to be released around that date. What that update will include other than the wide release of “Enhanced Summon” is currently unknown, but considering the timing, the fact that Elon said in-browser viewing of videos from platforms like YouTube and Netflix are around the corner and he much earlier also said that these features would come with V10 software, this might be coming within a month. Although, there is currently no direct evidence of this. Tesla Early Access Program drivers are certainly not reporting any unusual new features other than “Enhanced Summon.”

In any case, all of this information will quite likely fuel multiple analyses further scrutinizing how these new numbers affect the grand scheme of things. For that, please make sure to check back with us again later this week!

About the Author

Chanan Bos Chanan grew up in a multicultural, multi-lingual environment that often gives him a unique perspective on a variety of topics. He is always in thought about big picture topics like AI, quantum physics, philosophy, Universal Basic Income, climate change, sci-fi concepts like the singularity, misinformation, and the list goes on. Currently, he is studying creative media & technology but already has diplomas in environmental sciences as well as business & management. His goal is to discourage linear thinking, bias, and confirmation bias whilst encouraging out-of-the-box thinking and helping people understand exponential progress. Chanan is very worried about his future and the future of humanity. That is why he has a tremendous admiration for Elon Musk and his companies, foremost because of their missions, philosophy, and intent to help humanity and its future. He sees Tesla as one of the few companies that can help us save ourselves from climate change.

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Scoop: Ford To Partner With Electrify America For Customer Access To EV Charging Network

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Published on July 13th, 2019 |

by Loren McDonald

Scoop: Ford To Partner With Electrify America For Customer Access To EV Charging Network

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July 13th, 2019 by Loren McDonald

In a Twitter exchange I had today with Mike Levine, North America Product Communications Manager for Ford, he revealed that Ford would be announcing details of a partnership with Volkswagen’s Electrify America charging subsidiary. Below is the Twitter exchange as well as some extra commentary.

While details are non-existent at this point, at least directionally this is good news for current and future buyers of Ford EVs. What also isn’t clear is if the arrangement with Electrify America resulted from the recent conversations and partnership between Volkswagen and Ford around autonomous vehicle technology and the MEB platform.

The brief back and forth on Twitter with Levine began when I commented on his Tweet to Jalopnik:

This led to a thread and some comments from me about Ford’s US electric vehicle plans and ended with Levine’s Electrify America comment.

Now, some of you are probably saying: “But anyone can access the Electrify America charging network. Why is this news?” And on the one hand, you would be correct. But on the other hand, I believe it is proof of a growing recognition by the automakers of what a competitive advantage Tesla has currently with its Supercharger and Destination Charger networks.

On Friday (July 11) Electrify America (EA) announced a partnership with Harley-Davidson to provide future owners of the LiveWire electric motorcycle access to the EA network and various charging benefits. And while pure speculation at this juncture, the Harley-Davidson announcement likely provides a template and insight into what the Ford and Electrify America arrangement might look like. This may include:

Access to all of Electrify America’s network of fast-charging stations across the US.
Complimentary charging for Ford EV drivers for a specific time period (e.g., one year).
Electrify America charging locations are integrated with an updated MyFord Mobile app to find charging stations, track charging status and usage statistics, enable easy payment, etc.

US Leading DC Fast-Charging Networks
According to the Electrify America press release on the Harley-Davidson arrangement, the company “…expects to install or have under development approximately 800 total charging station sites with 3,500 chargers by December 2021. Over this 30-month investment cycle, Electrify America will expand to 29 metros and 45 states, including two cross-country routes, delivering on its commitment to support increased ZEV adoption with a network that is comprehensive, technologically advanced and customer-friendly.”

Using data from the Alternative Fuels Data Center as of July 1, 2019, Tesla had a commanding lead in the US with 5,894 fast charging stations (connections), more than double the 2,156 for EVgo, which boasts the most public fast charging stations. Electrify America, which has been adding locations and stations at a faster rate recently than Tesla (whose network has been growing fast). Though, with 986 connections, it currently trails by almost 5,000 connections. (Important Note: While Electrify America has 986 connections on its dual-connection stations, these can only charge a single EV at a time. This means that, in effect, EA only has about 500 actual available connections.)

EVgo has the most locations, at 773 versus Tesla’s 635 and Electrify America’s 232. But an area where Tesla has perhaps its most powerful edge is the average of more than 9 stations per Supercharger location, compared to 4.25 (2.13 if you account for only being able to charge one EV at a time) for EA and 2.79 for EVgo.

Chart Image: Loren McDonald

Why Access to the Electrify America Network is Important for Ford
As anyone who has taken an EV on a long road trip knows, adequate access to DC fast charging stations is key to eliminating and reducing added trip time. For me personally and many EV owners, this is why the Tesla Supercharger network is so key.

As CleanTechnica writer Kyle Field wrote in his recent response to a New York Times article, Vegas, Baby! Los Angeles To Vegas & Back In A Tesla Model 3 — 8 Hours Of Driving & 70 Minutes Of Charging, “Driving an electric vehicle on long road trips is easy as long as you have the right one.”

The “right one” refers to both having decent range (e.g., at least around 250 miles or more) and having an EV with convenient access to a compatible fast-charging network.

And this is where an arrangement with Electrify America will be key in the future for Ford. Current plans are for Ford to launch its unnamed fully electric crossover, formerly referred to as the Mach E, likely in late 2020. With promised EPA range in the 300 mile neighborhood, the Ford EV could be an ideal road trip car.

Ford’s all-new Mustang-inspired fully-electric performance utility arrives in 2020 with targeted range of 300 miles. Source: Ford Media Center

But to entice reticent and more traditional buyers of a gas-powered Ford, the company needs to be able to promote simple and convenient access to an extensive fast-charging network. Depending on the details of the upcoming arrangement, the Electrify America partnership could just do the trick.

I personally have high hopes for both the unnamed electric Ford crossover and the Escape plug-in hybrid (PHEV), as you can see from my projections below for year-end 2023. But for Ford to achieve anything close to my projection for its EV, the Detroit automaker must ensure a great charging experience for its buyers.

Does This Mean Ford “Gets It?”
My comment on Twitter to Levine was based on a conversation with Ford’s head of EV infrastructure that I had at a recent Detroit automotive conference where I spoke. I shared my belief that Ford needed to take a more proactive role in building out a fast charging network and create a better complete electric vehicle experience for owners. Driving an EV is different from a gas-powered vehicle, and at least for the near term during the early phase of the EV market, automakers need to provide access to “refueling” as part of the entire customer experience.

The Ford executive told me that: “We don’t want to compete with Electrify America,” which implied to me that Ford was not going to invest in a charging network and simply leave that buildout to others. I found this attitude naive and, in fact, quite shocking. To achieve significant sales for an EV, it needs to not only have great range (among other things), but it must also be combined with access to a vast and easy-to-use charging network.

Putting the charging infrastructure executive’s comments into perspective with this new information, he obviously could not share that Ford would be partnering with EA in the future. I’m still not convinced, however, that Ford is actually yet committed to EVs or understands the EV market, but hopefully it is starting to see the light in the area of charging infrastructure.

I look forward to seeing the actual announcement from Ford and Electrify America in the future. Stay tuned …

About the Author

Loren McDonald writes about the factors driving adoption of electric vehicles and the opportunities and challenges the transition to EVs presents companies and entrepreneurs in the auto, utility, energy, retail and other industries. His research and content are published on CleanTechnica, his own blog/site, www.EVAdoption.com, and in his upcoming book “Gas Station Zero” about the huge shifts and changes in multiple industries driven by the transition to battery electric, autonomous and shared vehicles.

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Harald Krüger To Step Down As CEO Of BMW

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Published on July 6th, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

Harald Krüger To Step Down As CEO Of BMW

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July 6th, 2019 by Steve Hanley

Just a few days ago, Klaus Fröhlich, the head of research and development for BMW, was whining to the press that nobody wants to buy electric cars. Well, actually, as it turns out, nobody wants to buy BMWs if the latest financials for the company are any indication. According to the Toronto Star, BMW has seen its position as Germany’s luxury car leader evaporate over the past few years and is facing strong financial pressure associated with developing electric and self driving cars that can compete with the likes of Tesla and other manufacturers.

The BMW Group has delivered more than 100,000 electrified vehicles to customers worldwide in 2017, as promised at the beginning of the year. An eye-catching light installation transformed the BMW Group headquarters, the world-famous “Four-Cylinder” in the north of Munich, on the evening of 18 December 2017 into a battery. (Ralph Larmann, 12/2017)

Now it reportedly will not renew the current contract for its CEO, Harald Krüger, when it expires next April. The company has just reported its weakest earnings in a decade, a reversal after sporting some of the highest profit margins in the automotive business for many years.

Krüger was chosen to lead the company in December, 2014 after his predecessor, Herbert Diess, left unexpectedly to take the reins at rival Volkswagen. In a statement to the press, he said, “After more than 10 years in the board of management, more than four of which as the CEO of the BMW Group, I would like to pursue new professional endeavors and leverage my diverse international experience for new projects and ventures.”

It is customary for German companies to renew the CEO’s contract one year before its termination. When BMW did not do so in April of this year, it started speculation that Krüger would step aside when his contract ended instead of signing on for another 5 year term.

BMW was once thought of as a leader in the nascent electric car field when it brought its highly innovative BMW i3 electric car to market in 2013. But, the company failed to capitalize on its early lead as it struggled to find a way forward for EVs.

BMW i3s at the National Drive Electric Week Event in Oxnard, California. Image credit: Kyle Field | CleanTechnica

Krüger was “too cautious,” Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, director of the CAR Center for Automotive Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen tells The Star. “BMW was not able to use the head start for a new generation of electric vehicles.”

David Bailey, a professor at the Birmingham Business School, told CNN that BMW needed to accelerate its move into new technologies. “[Krüger has] done a very good job in recent years, but BMW faces some very big challenges going ahead. They felt the needed to bring in somebody new given the scale of the challenge.”

The Tesla Effect
It has not been lost on management or customers that the Tesla Model S is now the best selling large luxury car in Germany, which is hugely embarrassing to BMW as well as Mercedes-Benz and Audi. We may never know exactly how the changes in the marketplace brought about by Tesla have affected the fortunes of those companies but there is little question it has roiled the industry and forced companies to confront the coming electric vehicle revolution faster than they might done otherwise.

The Tesla Model S. Image courtesy: Tesla

In addition to being hit with an antitrust penalty of $1.6 billion by EU authorities recently, BMW has has been adversely affected by a rise in tariffs on vehicles exported to China from its plant in South Carolina due to the tariff war going on between the US and China. In March, it downgraded its profit projections for 2019 and announced a cost saving plan that will trim $13.6 billion in costs by the end of 2022. That plan focuses on dropping some models and streamlining vehicle development.

Bankwupt?
BMW says it is rushing to bring electric cars to market, but in truth, when your head of R&D says nobody wants to buy electric cars it is hard to take such statements seriously. At CleanTechnica, we have said for a while that some traditional car companies may go out of business or be forced to merge with other companies as a result of the arrival of electric vehicles.

BMW and Mercedes have indicated they will collaborate on the development of electric and self driving cars, a sign that a consolidation in the industry may already be under way. Unless BMW can get back on track with its development of competitive electric, autonomous vehicles, it could even be the first traditional automaker to go bankwupt — but it probably won’t be the last.

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Tesla Supercharger Network Evolution — From 6 To 13,344 Superchargers In 6 Years

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Published on July 6th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

Tesla Supercharger Network Evolution — From 6 To 13,344 Superchargers In 6 Years

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July 6th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

Last year, I published a short review of the Tesla Supercharger network’s tremendous evolution from 2011 to March 2018. I recently ran across that and decided to update it with July 2019 maps and numbers. Here you go:

The Tesla Supercharger network is still one of the top reasons electric car buyers are convinced to buy a Tesla rather than another company’s electric car. The network was a critical competitive advantage we identified years ago when surveying EV drivers and potential EV drivers, and it seems to be referenced every day in comments on CleanTechnica as a core competitive advantage for the Silicon Valley EV & clean energy giant.

We are finally seeing superfast/ultrafast charging stations rise up in non-Tesla charging networks, and hey, one day we’ll have a non-Tesla electric car on the market that can charge at 100 kW or more. But rolling out vast superfast/ultrafast charging stations takes time, and a lot of money.

When I went through our Tesla archives recently to highlight the history of Tesla vehicle sales projections and Tesla Model 3 forecasts, I ran across some old Supercharger maps and announcements. I thought they were rather striking, especially since I had basically forgotten how sparse the network was just a few years ago.

Exhibit A (2011) — Longtime Tesla director of battery technology Kurt Kelty says, “We don’t need a charging infrastructure throughout the country.”

(That actually sounds quite similar to what some major automakers claim today, automakers that don’t have widespread superfast charging infrastructure available for their drivers and don’t have cars that could use such infrastructure.)

Exhibit B (2013) — A whopping 6 Superchargers in California + 2 Superchargers on the US East Coast!

Exhibit C — Also in 2013, big new Supercharger announcements (for the time). Supercharger max power gets boosted from 90 kW to 120 kW. Tesla adds lightning bolt symbol to in-car navigation so that drivers can easily find a Supercharger. Tesla starts adding grid storage at some of its Superchargers, allowing you to survive a Zombie Apocalypse if need be — or at least charge your Tesla during one. Dramatic increase in Supercharger deployment, which leads to this plan:

Exhibit D — A January 2014 tweet from Tesla: “We’ve just opened a bunch of Superchargers to help us get closer to energizing our cross-country route!” Look at this humongous, jaw-dropping, volt-whopping network:

Exhibit E — Around the same time, Tesla patents a system allowing a charging station to prioritize charging based on need and arrival time.

Tesla Motors US Patent Application 2013/0057209

Exhibit F — By the end of 2014, Tesla’s Supercharger network explodes to “884 individual charging points spread across 141 Supercharger stations, as compared to the 776 CHAdeMO charging points now operational in the US.” Check out the exciting map of the time:

Exhibit G — In the second half of 2015, Tesla is up to 487 Supercharger stations globally, with a new one opening nearly every day.

(By the way, another note at that time from TeslaMondo: “Five years ago, Tesla produced 800 cars per year. Now it can produce 800 in three days.” And one more note from Tesla on the initial Autopilot rollout, which was just about to start: This is just the beginning. Don’t treat the initial release like it’s the final one. Hmm, maybe a topic for another article. …)

Exhibit H-oly Cowabunga — This is where the Supercharger network is today was in March 2018, not even 5 years after Exhibit B:

Now, here’s where we are today:

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