Tesla Model 3 = 24% of Small & Midsize Luxury Car Sales in USA*

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Published on October 7th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

Tesla Model 3 = 24% of Small & Midsize Luxury Car Sales in USA*

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October 7th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

The Tesla Model 3 has taken the US luxury car market by storm. When sales soared through the roof in the second half of 2018, making the Model 3 far and away the best selling luxury car in the country and the best selling car car of any type in terms of revenue, fans were excited for the launch of a new era. Critics, on the other hand, saw it as a temporary boom from early reservation holders that would soon be over, then resulting in a crash in Tesla sales, Tesla financials, and the company as a whole.

The core difference between the fans and the critics seems to rest in how these different followers of the company have expected the general public to respond to the Model 3 and its many benefits. Critics apparently expected a “meh” response. Tesla fans, of course, expected that the market could be huge for a car that has better performance and drive quality than a BMW 3 Series, much better tech than an Audi, and a potential cost of ownership of a Camry or Accord (depending on various individual and market circumstances).

At the moment, while the verdict isn’t final, things are looking good for Tesla and Tesla fans. We don’t know precise Tesla Model 3 sales figures in the US, and even educated estimates are very rough estimates until we get more data from Europe and China, but our expectation is that there were between 40,000 and 50,000 deliveries in the US in the third quarter. On the more conservative side, we’ve estimated 43,000 US deliveries. That blows away sales of any other midsize or small luxury car.

The next two charts are interactive charts. You can click through the circles near the top to go from quarter to quarter. Note that these interactive charts do not work well on all phones. In general, they are best viewed on a computer.

Pulling in data from almost all other auto companies, 43,000 third quarter (Q3) deliveries would mean that the Tesla Model 3 accounted for 27% of all small and midsize luxury car sales in the country (note that we are only talking about cars here, not pickup trucks and SUVs).

Based on these figures and earlier estimates, for the first three quarters of the year, the Model 3’s small & midsize luxury car market share was 24%. The model’s weakest quarter was the first quarter, when Tesla finally started shipping cars to Europe and China, and when US consumer demand was lower anyway due to a 50% reduction in the US federal tax credit for Tesla vehicles starting. (Tesla was the first company to deliver 200,000 electric vehicles in the country, which led to a tax credit reduction from $7500 to $3750 on January 1, 2019. On July 1, that went down to $1875. On January 1, 2020, unless Congress changes something — which seems unlikely with the grim reaper running the show and killing everything in sight in the Senate — the tax credit for Tesla buyers will go away completely, while all other automakers will still benefit from the tax credit because they were electrification laggards. I know, it’s odd.)

While a 24% market share — 1 out of every 4 sales in this market — seems wild, the thing that blows the minds of many Tesla Model 3 owners is that anyone is still buying an Audi A4, Volvo S60, BMW 320i, Mercedes C300, etc. These cars and others in this class don’t match up well against the Model 3 in any important way, and they are much worse in several ways. That said, we know the main reasons why Model 3 sales aren’t higher — most consumers aren’t aware of the car, know very little about the car, haven’t driven or ridden in the car, or have negative misinformation in their heads about Tesla and the Model 3.

One thing to keep in mind, especially now that Capital One has published about it, is that the resale values of used luxury car competitors are suffering now that the Model 3 is on the market in full flow. As resale values of these BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Acura, and other luxury cars decline, companies that lease them have to raise their leasing prices in order to cover costs — which makes them even less attractive. Consumers who buy these models and see them drop in value so deeply so rapidly are more likely to reconsider their brand allegiance and perhaps jump ship to Tesla.

Where will Tesla and its Model 3 go from here? We’ll keep you updated as more registration data come in from Europe, China, and elsewhere and as the market evolves.

*Tesla reports quarterly sales and does not break them out by country or region. Eventually, we get registration data from Europe, China (educated estimates at least), and Canada and can then make a more solid estimate of US sales for the quarter, as well as monthly sales estimates. However, it’s a bit early for all of that since we don’t have September numbers from most countries yet. Even our data-loving friend and contributor Jose Pontes of EV Volumes didn’t want to venture out too far on a limb and provide an early estimate that he might have to walk back. That said, looking at previous months’ data, September figures from the Netherlands and Norway, and deeper historical data, I feel comfortable estimating Model 3 sales between 40,000 and 50,000 in the US in the third quarter. For this report, I’ve settled on 43,000.

If you’d like to buy a Tesla Model 3 instead of a Camry, Accord, Civic, or Corolla, and you’d also like to get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging in the process, feel free to use my referral code: https://ts.la/zachary63404.

About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself one word at a time. He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the CEO of Important Media. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, Canada, and Curaçao.

Zach has long-term investments in Tesla [TSLA] — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in this company and feels like it is a good cleantech company to invest in. But he offers no investment advice and does not recommend investing in Tesla or any other company.

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Moroccan 7-Star Hotel Looks To Replace Bentleys With Tesla Model X Fleet

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Published on October 6th, 2019 |

by Guest Contributor

Moroccan 7-Star Hotel Looks To Replace Bentleys With Tesla Model X Fleet

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October 6th, 2019 by Guest Contributor

Originally posted on X Auto and EVANNEX.
By Iqtidar Ali

The ludicrously luxurious Royal Mansour Marrakech is a 7-star hotel in Morocco that’s decided to replace their Bentleys with Tesla Model X SUVs. It took efforts from a few Tesla enthusiasts in Morocco to convince the palace hotel to make the decision.

Tesla Model X all-electric SUV with falcon wing doors open, outside the Royal Mansour Palace Hotel in Marrackech (Twitter: Tesla Culinary Takeover)

The super luxury hotel utilized Bentleys to pick up and drop off their customers from the airport. Moving forward, they’ve decided to switch to cleaner, greener Tesla Model X electric vehicles for that purpose.

An inside look at the Royal Mansour Marrakech along with a glimpse at one of the Bentleys used to transport hotel guests (YouTube: InspectorLUX)

According to Khalil Amar, the hotel wants to buy the Model X SUVs as soon as Tesla launches its infrastructure in Morocco. Amar even tagged Elon Musk in a tweet requesting a local Tesla store, service center, and Supercharger station. In turn, Musk liked the tweet, which could mean (hopefully) the process for accelerating Tesla’s presence in Morocco may soon be underway.

Tesla enthusiasts convince Royal Mansour to switch to Tesla Model X EVs instead of Bentleys. (Twitter: Khalil Amar) A new way to welcome guests at the 7-star hotel. Tesla Model X electric SUV outside the Royal Mansour Palace Hotel in Marackech.

The hotel’s guests should feel special entering Tesla’s Model X via its falcon wing doors — stepping into a modern, sleek cabin instead of an 80s-style Bentley interior, guests complained according to Khalil.

The lowest price at this hotel is a whopping $1,700/night (via TripAdvisor.com). And it’s likely some percentage of the hotel’s well-heeled guests will eventually become Tesla owners after they have a first-hand experience with the all-electric SUV at the Royal Mansour.

It turns out other hotels are choosing Tesla as their vehicle of choice too. Guests at the Four Seasons Oahu, Mandarin Oriental Miami, and W Hotel Hong Kong can access to the hotel’s Teslas. Elon Musk’s pal, Richard Branson, also decided to make a Tesla the official house car at the Virgin Hotel. Even luxury buildings are now using Teslas (and Tesla chargers) to attract new customers and help create a greener future.

… and on a lighter note!

About the Author

Guest Contributor is many, many people. We publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. 😀

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Tesla Ramps Up Quest For Driverless Cars With Acquisition Of DeepScale

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Published on October 2nd, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

Tesla Ramps Up Quest For Driverless Cars With Acquisition Of DeepScale

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October 2nd, 2019 by Steve Hanley

Don’t think of self-driving cars as autonomous. Think of them as horizontal elevators. No one thinks it’s strange to get on a modern elevator, press a button, and be whisked to the floor of your choosing. Only if you are 85 years old and remember the days of elevator operators do you think self service elevators are at all unusual.

Credit: DeepScale

Autonomous cars can reduce congestion in world cities, eliminate most motor vehicle injuries and deaths, and free us up to play Tetris on our touchscreens as over the river and through the woods to Grandmother’s house we go. They also may prove to be hugely profitable for the companies that operate them.

No company on Earth has a more single-minded emphasis on self-driving cars than Tesla. You might think it has the best and brightest minds in the world of robotic transportation on its payroll, but apparently there are other companies out there who have people with equal or greater skill. Tesla has just acquired one of them, a company known as DeepScale.

According to CNBC, DeepScale was founded by Forrest Iandola, who obtained a PhD in electrical engineering and computer science at UC Berkeley, “where he worked on deep neural nets that could work on mobile devices with relatively small amounts of memory.” DeepScale’s technology is designed to help automakers use low wattage processors — the kinds that are now standard in most cars — to power very accurate computer vision. These processors work with sensors, mapping, planning, and control systems to allow cars to make sense of what’s going on around them.

On his LinkedIn page, Iandola announced he has joined Tesla as a senior staff machine learning scientist. “I joined the Tesla #Autopilot team this week. I am looking forward to working with some of the brightest minds in #deeplearning and #autonomousdriving,” he said.

CNBC points out that Tesla has suffered a brain drain of sorts in its self-driving unit recently. In May, Stuart Bowers, who headed the company’s self-driving program, departed for greener pastures after Elon Musk critiqued him and his group for not getting the results Musk wanted fast enough. Subsequently, according to The Information, 11 other members of the team — about 10% of the total — left Tesla as well after telling Musk they could not meet the timelines he demanded of them.

Sources tell CNBC that Tesla has acquired DeepScale in its entirety, although no details about how much Tesla paid for the tech startup have been revealed. Reportedly it had raised nearly $20 million in funding from prominent venture capital groups.

Tesla has not been shy about acquiring companies it thinks will help it achieve its mission of converting the world’s transportation system to electric vehicles. Previously it bought Grohmann Engineering, one of Germany’s most highly regarded engineering companies. More recently it acquired Maxwell Technologies, a company with vast experience with supercapacitors.

Elon Musk is relentless at pushing his people to achieve impossibly difficult results in unbelievably short periods of time. With DeepScale now in the fold, expect dramatic progress toward full self-driving cars to occur quickly — or else!

About the Author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may lead him. His motto is, “Life is not measured by how many breaths we take but by the number of moments that take our breath away!” You can follow him on Google + and on Twitter.

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Tesla Doubles Supercharging Referral Bonus To 2,000 Free Miles In Q3 Sales Push

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Published on September 10th, 2019 |

by Chris Boylan

Tesla Doubles Supercharging Referral Bonus To 2,000 Free Miles In Q3 Sales Push

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September 10th, 2019 by Chris Boylan

Tesla’s referral program has been an effective tool for the company to promote car sales. By using a referral code or link to order your new Tesla, both you (the buyer) and the referring owner get free Supercharging. Until today, that bonus was 1,000 miles of free Supercharging for buyer and referrer. But Tesla just announced that it is doubling that bonus to 2,000 free Supercharging miles for any Tesla car ordered on or after September 10, 2019 and delivered before October 1, 2019. Tesla has also extended this 2,000 mile Supercharging bonus to those who order a Tesla solar power system before October 1.

It looks like Tesla is hoping to goose car deliveries in the last month of the third quarter, so it’s offering this improved incentive to prospective new customers. Unlike previous referral bonuses which only required that the car be ordered by the deadline, this time, Tesla is requiring that the car be delivered by the deadline. So those who want to take advantage of this offer may need to select an available “inventory” model from their local Tesla showroom. Though, Tesla has tightened up its delivery rates lately, so it is possible that you could custom order a Tesla today and have it delivered with your exact specifications by the October 1 deadline.

If you are an existing Tesla owner, now may be a good time to share your referral code with friends and family. Better yet, take them for a test drive in your Tesla, and if you trust them, let them take the wheel. Nothing sells Tesla better than a Tesla. You can also use your own referral code if you’re buying a second (or fifth!) Tesla.

If you’re not yet a Tesla owner and are about to order one, contact a friend or family member who owns a Tesla and ask for their referral code. If you don’t know anyone with a Tesla, feel free to use my referral (below), so we can both benefit from the 2,000 miles for free charging.

Tesla Referral Link – Use This for a Supercharging bonus with purchase or lease of a Tesla Model 3, Model X, Model S or Tesla Solar Power System

Tesla has juiced up its referral program for the remainder of Q3, offering 2,000 free Supercharging miles with any new Tesla vehicle delivered by October 1, 2019.

If you order over the phone, you can use referral code “christopher55570.”

As a referring owner or new Tesla buyer, your free miles will show up in the “Loot box” in the Tesla mobile app. Miles earned in the Tesla Referral Program expire after six months. However, the expiration date is extended by an additional six months with each new referral (up to a maximum of 36 months from the most recent referral date). So you could theoretically get unlimited Supercharging for life as long as you refer a new Tesla buyer once every six months.

Tesla’s Supercharger network currently has over 14,000 charging stalls worldwide, with new charging stations added every month. You can get a quick top-off in 10–15 minutes or a full charge in about an hour. Charging rates vary per model and per charging station. Charging rate also depends on your battery’s current SOC (State of Charge) — the car charges much faster when the battery is close to empty and gradually slows as the battery nears its capacity.

If you map out a long-distance trip using Tesla’s onboard navigation, the car will include Supercharger stops along the way automatically, so you’ll never have to worry about running out of juice. You can also find current and planned Supercharger locations here on the Tesla website: www.tesla.com/supercharger

Supercharging your Tesla is like gassing up your car, only without the carbon guilt (or the smell). Photo by Chris Boylan.

Although Tesla didn’t specify details in the announcement, we expect the referral bonus to drop back to 1,000 free miles for cars delivered after October 1, 2019. Find out more about the Tesla Referral Program.

Follow me on Twitter @MrBoylan

About the Author

Chris Boylan is an EV and alternative fuel enthusiast who has been writing about technology since 2003.

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Elon Musk Announces Plaid Performance Upgrade To Tesla Model S, X, & Roadster!

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Published on September 12th, 2019 |

by Paul Fosse

Elon Musk Announces Plaid Performance Upgrade To Tesla Model S, X, & Roadster!

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September 12th, 2019 by Paul Fosse

Elon tweeted earlier in the evening a clear reference to the most powerful mode in Tesla’s upcoming Tesla Roadster: “The only thing beyond Ludicrous is Plaid.” In a followup tweet, he noted that the Plaid option would be available on the Model S and Model X as well as the Roadster.

When Marques Brownlee noted that we are going to need details, Elon replied “Soon.” Tantalizing.

We had to wait less than an hour for some of those juicy details. Elon announced a new powertrain that includes 3 motors instead of the 2 that have been standard on the Model S and Model X for some time. The next-generation Roadster has had a plan for 3 motors since it was unveiled as “One More Thing” at the Tesla Semi unveiling almost 2 years ago in November 2017.

For those of you who don’t know why Elon names performance modes things like “Ludicrous” or “Plaid,” these are pop culture references to a scene in the movie Spaceballs. The terminology is a play on a the warp speed effect in the popular 1960s TV show Star Trek.

There has been a lot of speculation about what Tesla’s response to the Porsche Taycan would be. We know that the new Raven Model S has enhanced Dynamic Air Suspension and a more powerful motor. A track mode that adjusted stability control and increased cooling for sustained power was certainly needed. The rumor that Tesla is moving the Model S and X to the 2170 battery cells used in the Model 3 instead of the 18650 format they use today is a persistent rumor, but not more than that according to a number of tweets and statements from Elon over the past year.

I didn’t imagine Tesla would go so far as to add a 3rd motor. This could potentially add as much as 50% more power. Normally, I would say the power would be limited to the output of the battery pack, but that would be forgetting that Tesla just closed on a company called Maxwell Technologies, which not only was working on technology that greatly reduces the cost of producing cells using dry electrodes but was best known for ultracapacitors. Quoting our article linked above, “If the economics made sense, a modest ultracapacitor array could work alongside the battery pack as a cache of energy, to reduce the load on (and/or work in parallel with) the main battery during short bursts of hard acceleration or strong regenerative braking.”

Screen capture from Tesla’s YouTube channel.

Today, Tesla released a video of a Model S driven by an amateur driver setting a new record for a 4 door sedan at Laguna Seca during advanced R&D testing of the Model S Plaid powertrain and chassis. Is that the same car or setup that Tesla shipped to Germany for the Nürbergring Lap?

It is unclear from the tweet if the Model S and Model X would get the identical powertrain as the new Roadster (which would still be much faster because it is smaller and lighter) or just a similar design. I’m sure there will be much speculation over the next year on this subject. Just as I was thinking there wasn’t much left to do with the Model S and X since they are so fast already, I once again greatly underestimated the determination and competitive spirit Elon Musk and Tesla continue to display. (Editor’s note: ditto.)

Use my Tesla referral link to get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging on a Tesla Model S, Model X, or Model 3 (you can’t use it on the Model Y yet), here’s the link: https://ts.la/paul92237 (but if someone else helped you, please use their link).

About the Author

Paul Fosse A Software engineer for over 30 years, first developing EDI software, then developing data warehouse systems. Along the way, I've also had the chance to help start a software consulting firm and do portfolio management. In 2010, I took an interest in electric cars because gas was getting expensive. In 2015, I started reading CleanTechnica and took an interest in solar, mainly because it was a threat to my oil and gas investments. Follow me on Twitter @atj721 Tesla investor. Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/paul92237

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Tesla Insurance Launches, Claims To Save Owners Up To 30% On Premiums

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Published on August 28th, 2019 |

by Kyle Field

Tesla Insurance Launches, Claims To Save Owners Up To 30% On Premiums

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August 28th, 2019 by Kyle Field

Tesla just officially launched its highly anticipated Tesla Insurance offering for Tesla owners in California. It promises to save owners up to 30% on their premiums compared to traditional automotive insurance companies. Tesla Insurance also sets the company up to provide the end-to-end vehicle purchase, service, fueling, and insurance services in a buildup to the launch of the Tesla Network. Talk about integrated.

Tesla Insurance is initially offering “comprehensive coverage and claims management to support our customers in California,” with other states being added after the company works the initial bugs out of the system via customers in its home state.

Saving cash is great and the opportunity to save even more money by getting in the insurance bed with the automotive manufacturer comes with its own series of potential risks and benefits. First off, Tesla presumably knows its vehicles better than anyone else, so can initiate claims, start shipping parts, and schedule repairs faster than anyone else.

Getting insurance through Tesla also puts the company on the hook for getting owners back into their vehicles as quickly as possible after an accident. In my mind, this is the real incentive for signing up for Tesla Insurance, as stories of long delays to get Tesla vehicles repaired after an accident are a dime a dozen on any internet forum.

Image courtesy: Tesla

The prospect of having an integrated pool of Tesla Insurance loaner vehicles for customers getting vehicles repaired is also attractive, as Tesla wouldn’t have to pay an outside rental company to provide a combustion vehicle. It could instead keep owners in a Tesla vehicle in the zero-emission Tesla ecosystem. It could even use the loaner process as a tool to encourage owners to trade up and get into a new, higher-performance Tesla while their vehicle is being repaired.

The lower prices come from Tesla’s direct knowledge of the passive safety of its vehicles as well as the active safety technology present in every Tesla rolling off the line for the past couple of years. Tesla has more nuanced knowledge about the safety equipment in each specific vehicle as well as the statistical safety of similar vehicles on the road, giving it a much more accurate ability to price in or out the risk of an accident. The lower premiums reflect what Tesla has been telling us all along about the safety of its vehicles. When a vehicle is 4–6 times less likely to get into an accident than the average vehicle driving around in the US today, that means lower insurance costs.

Tesla Insurance is currently only available to owners of a Tesla Model S, X, 3, or Roadster in California, with the prospect of further improving the total cost of ownership of a Tesla compared to other vehicles. In other words, this makes the all-in cost of electric vehicles that much more accessible to people in California, and around the world eventually.

Image courtesy: Tesla

The new offering can be added to an owner’s Tesla account in less than a minute. After logging into the Tesla Account, all that’s needed is a confirmation of the owner’s address and driver’s license information. Then a preliminary quote pops out. Coverages, deductibles, and the like can be adjusted as needed and the price adjusts accordingly.

For customers purchasing a new Tesla, Insurance can be added as soon as a VIN is assigned to the order, making the pickup of a new vehicle that much easier.

Image courtesy: Tesla

Importantly, Tesla specifically notes that it will not use or record vehicle data, including GPS and vehicle camera footage, when pricing insurance. (Doing so, it seems, would be illegal.)

For more information about Tesla Insurance, head over to the official website, the blog post introducing it, or my personal favorite, the Frequently Asked Questions page.

Also, this article from our in-house insurance expert is mandatory (recommended) reading: Tesla Insurance: Information Arbitrage To Save You Money.

Source: Tesla

About the Author

Kyle Field I'm a tech geek passionately in search of actionable ways to reduce the negative impact my life has on the planet, save money and reduce stress. Live intentionally, make conscious decisions, love more, act responsibly, play. The more you know, the less you need. TSLA investor.

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Tesla Adds Online Parts Sales, Hinting At Direct Customer Sales

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Published on September 7th, 2019 |

by Kyle Field

Tesla Adds Online Parts Sales, Hinting At Direct Customer Sales

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September 7th, 2019 by Kyle Field

Tesla added a new Parts page to its online shop today in a move that hints at more direct sales of parts to customers around the world. The new shop is somewhat stripped down as it stands today, with a few options for floor mats and new key cards for the Tesla Model 3, but it bodes well for the future.

Screen capture of: Tesla.com

Good For Customers
Parts have been hard to come by for DIY installers, with most turning to eBay for parts stripped from scrap yards, totaled vehicles, or leftovers from rim replacements and the like. It’s likely that sales on eBay will continue as owners look for more cost-effective ways to repair or upgrade their vehicles, but the addition of direct sales from Tesla would provide much needed relief for customers looking for harder-to-find parts.

Many parts just aren’t reused as easily as others, driving prices artificially higher on the resale market. Opening up the option to buy parts directly from Tesla will help DIY customers or shops get their vehicles repaired with fewer headaches. That’s better for Tesla’s customers, wherever they may live and drive.

Good For Tesla
Making parts available directly to customers over the internet replicates the parts supply model that the automotive industry has used for years, but eliminates the middle man. That gives customers and body shops the best prices from Tesla, without the need for any markups. To Tesla, that also means it gets all of the profits, at retail pricing, along with full control over those prices.

Tesla Mobile Service repairing the electromechanical door handle switch on our Tesla Model 3. Image credit: Kyle Field | CleanTechnica

In other words, selling parts directly gives customers the best prices for the highest quality parts, while putting profits back into Tesla’s pockets. That’s good for Tesla and keeps the company healthy while giving value back to consumers at the same time. It won’t eliminate the need or the opportunity for aftermarket parts suppliers to move into the space, but it will make the market smaller.

A Maturing Market
The addition of parts sales to customers to its repertoire is a step forward for Tesla and is just one more indicator that EVs are moving out of a niche market into the mainstream. My wife attempted to get the charging door on her Mercedes B-Class Electric repaired several times in the last 2 years, but only recently was able to have the service actually performed after the local dealership stepped up its game. It was still über expensive, but at least they were able to do it.

Tesla is similarly maturing as a company, and making more parts available to more customers around the world is a step towards that more mature position. Customers need to be able to get parts to repair their vehicles or have a body shop procure them directly. To date, Tesla has struggled to accommodate this need, but this new store is a good sign.

Reeling this vision back down to reality, Tesla still regularly struggles to actually provide parts to the approved body shops that order them. A simple repair of my driver’s side door handle took several weeks just for the parts to arrive after the initial request was put in. That seems unnecessary and hints at deeper issues with the company’s parts supply chain.

I’m not alone in this experience, with many customers waiting months for necessary parts to arrive before their vehicles could be repaired. Tesla needs to do better when it comes to supplying parts to customers and body shops, but this recent addition to the store gives us hope that the company is actually taking the need seriously.

About the Author

Kyle Field I'm a tech geek passionately in search of actionable ways to reduce the negative impact my life has on the planet, save money and reduce stress. Live intentionally, make conscious decisions, love more, act responsibly, play. The more you know, the less you need. TSLA investor.

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NTSB Faults Driver & Autopilot In Fire Truck Crash

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Published on September 5th, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

NTSB Faults Driver & Autopilot In Fire Truck Crash

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September 5th, 2019 by Steve Hanley

On the morning of January 22, 2018, a 2014 Tesla Model S rammed into the back of a parked fire truck that was responding to a prior accident. The fire truck was parked in the left hand travel lane of a highway at the time. The Tesla was operating in Autopilot mode at the time of the collision.

On September 4, the National Transportation Safety Board released its findings after an investigation of the crash. As reported by CNBC, a statement by the NTSB read as follows: “The probable cause of the Culver City, California, rear-end crash was the Tesla driver’s lack of response to the stationary fire truck in his travel lane, due to inattention and over reliance on the vehicle’s advanced driver assistance system; the Tesla’s Autopilot design, which permitted the driver to disengage from the driving task; and the driver’s use of the system in ways inconsistent with guidance and warnings from the manufacturer.”

Known Knowns & Known Unknowns
From data recovered from car after the collision, Tesla told the NTSB that Autopilot had been active for 13 minutes and 48 seconds before the crash and that the driver’s hands weren’t on the steering wheel for the majority of that time, according to a report by Transportation Topics.

A witness to the crash, which occurred on the 405 freeway in Culver City, California, reported seeing the Tesla speed into the fire truck without braking. “I could see the driver and I saw his head leaned far forward as he appeared to be looking down at a cell phone or other device he was holding in his left hand,” according to a written statement released by NTSB. “The driver’s positioning struck me as odd and concerning because it was clear to me he was very focused on his phone and wasn’t watching the road ahead at all, even though he was quickly approaching the stopped fire engine.”

The NTSB found no indication that the Tesla driver had been texting or making a call at the time, but couldn’t determine whether the phone was being used for other purposes.

Tesla says the car was sending warnings to the driver prior to the crash, reminding him to place his hands on the wheel, but the driver claims he was holding the bottom of the wheel at the time. He says a large vehicle in front of him was blocking his view of the road ahead. That vehicle swerved suddenly to avoid the fire truck and the Tesla driver did not have enough time to react and take evasive action himself. He says he was looking forward at the time, which contradicts the written witness statement.

Tesla Responds
Tesla issued the following response to the NTSB report:

“Tesla owners have driven billions of miles with Autopilot engaged, and data from our quarterly Vehicle Safety Report indicates that drivers using Autopilot remain safer than those operating without assistance. While our driver-monitoring system for Autopilot repeatedly reminds drivers of their responsibility to remain attentive and prohibits the use of Autopilot when warnings are ignored, we’ve also introduced numerous updates to make our safeguards smarter, safer and more effective across every hardware platform we’ve deployed.

“Since this incident occurred, we have made updates to our system including adjusting the time intervals between hands-on warnings and the conditions under which they’re activated.”

The Autopilot Debate Heats Up
Mike Ramsey, senior automotive research director for Gartner, a global consulting firm, tells CNBC, “When an investigative authority concludes the design of something you made has contributed to a serious accident, that is bad news for an automaker. Tesla has not always been super clear about Autopilot.

“They say in the fine print this was designed as a Level 2 system, and you’re supposed to keep your hands on the wheel. But then they will also talk about and demonstrate this system as if it’s a driverless car. This creates an environment where drivers wink and say we know it’s not supposed to be used this way, but we’ll just drive with our hands off the wheel.”

Ramsey warns that Tesla could face a recall of its Autopilot-equipped cars if vehicle safety authorities, including the National Highway Safety Administration, agree with the NTSB’s conclusions and decide that flawed Autopilot design can cause serious accidents. Such a recall would be a serious blow to Tesla’s plans to deploy a fleet of robotaxis in the near future.

Is Autopilot Safe?
One of the main reasons Tesla is such a strong advocate for semi-autonomous driving technology is because of Elon Musk’s belief that it can save lives. There are more than 40,000 highway fatalities on US roads every year and many more than that around the world. The Tesla quarterly Vehicle Safety Report seems to bear out the company’s claim that driving a Tesla on Autopilot is safer than driving a conventional car.

Part of the problem is surely attributable to human failings. Despite all the warnings from our parents, we still break arms and legs falling out of trees or jumping off the garage roof using an umbrella for a parachute.

It only takes a few minutes watching “America’s Funniest Home Videos” to realize what a bunch of idiots we are. No matter what warnings Tesla may give, a certain percentage of drivers will ignore them if for no other reason than that’s what people do. If we want a risk-free world, we should probably let machines take over completely and not allow people to drive cars at all.

If I could have a word with Elon Musk, I might encourage him to dial his claims about what Autopilot can do back a notch or two. Not that Elon, the ultimate risk taker, would give a moment’s thought to anything I might say. Still, despite all the company’s protestations to the contrary, it does seem to suggest that Autopilot has more functionality that it really does.

There is also a question why cars operating in Autopilot mode seem to have difficulty identifying really large trucks in their path and reacting appropriately. We might like to entertain the idea that Teslas can drive themselves, but they can’t. Not yet, anyway. Yet we see videos of Tesla drivers asleep at the wheel or sitting in the back seat reading the newspaper.

Perhaps the problem is that Elon Musk can’t admit to himself how human people are. They can buy small weights on the internet and drape them over the steering wheel to simulate a hand on the wheel so they can play Donkey Kong on their cell phone while the car drives itself. The fault, dear Elon, may not be in your machines, but in the people who use your machines. Even you, with all the resources at your disposal, have not yet figured out how to overcome simple human foibles.

About the Author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may lead him. His motto is, “Life is not measured by how many breaths we take but by the number of moments that take our breath away!” You can follow him on Google + and on Twitter.

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Tesla Model S At The Nürburgring — Elon Musk Says Lap Time Will Be Set Next Week

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Published on September 6th, 2019 |

by Dr. Maximilian Holland

Tesla Model S At The Nürburgring — Elon Musk Says Lap Time Will Be Set Next Week

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September 6th, 2019 by Dr. Maximilian Holland

Elon Musk has picked up the gauntlet thrown down by the Porsche Taycan — the Tesla Model S will record a lap time at the Nürburgring Nordschleife at some point next week. Will the Model S beat the Taycan’s 7:42 lap time?

EVs & the Real Competition
In my recent articles on the Taycan, I’ve tried to emphasize that it’s a welcome addition to the range of electric vehicle (EV) options. Given that 97.5% of auto sales are still burning fossils, all EVs are (or should be) competing with fossil fuel vehicles (FFVs), and not so much with other EVs. It has been a difficult line to tread, since the broader media have long tried to play EVs off each other (“Tesla Killer” being the lazy and most commonly employed designation) and even some manufacturers have played this card to some extent.

Although Porsche has been mostly mature with the Taycan’s marketing, there has been an undercurrent of trying to emphasize characteristics that appear to one-up the specs of some of Tesla’s offerings. The Fully Charged video of the Taycan’s repeated acceleration runs, released around a month ago, fell into this same trap, framing the Porsche against Tesla. The test itself (if not the content of the video) was organized by Porsche, so make of that what you will.

Apart from anything else, since the Taycan is priced way higher than any other mass-produced EVs on the market ($151,000 and up), the idea that it “competes” with Tesla’s sedan models is unfounded.

Although the 97.5% of the market is where we should be focused, some degree of perceived competitiveness between EVs is understandable, likely inevitable, and even potentially a good thing. EVs are inherently more capable in almost all domains than combustion vehicles, especially in outright performance. Competition between EVs can potentially accelerate their overall rate of improvement to reach levels that quickly leave combustion vehicles in a cloud of their own smog. This will bring forward the point at which EVs are widely recognized by the general public as the superior technology, and the better choice. Heaven knows that we’ve seen some EV offerings from legacy automakers that are not-as-good-as-they-should-be. Whatever encourages them to up their game should be welcome.

Elon Takes the Bait
It seems that Elon Musk is not immune to a bit of provocation. Who knew? With the Porsche Taycan being formally launched earlier this week, on top of the accumulation of a slew of promotional videos by Porsche over recent weeks (highlighting various more-or-less-practical aspects of the Taycan’s performance), Musk has finally cracked responded. He will send the Tesla Model S to the Nürburgring Nordschleife sometime next week to attempt a competitive lap time.

The previous generation of the Model S Performance was not designed to be optimized for the kinds of sustained peak performance that a few racetrack enthusiasts or long-duration, high-speed, Autobahn cruisers might have wished for. The vehicle simply reduced power on those rare occasions when pushed hard under these kinds of conditions. Of course, this was almost never an issue for most owners, who would at most subject their car to an occasional traffic-light grand-prix, and perhaps some spirited canyon driving. Even for typical sessions at the drag strip, queuing up for a few runs per hour, the car could put in a sufficient performance without any issues. In short, the car was reliably capable of more than enough real-world roller-coaster performance to delight the vast majority of owners, whilst just a few gearheads wished for a bit more sustained peak performance.

The Tesla Model 3 Performance was designed with improvements in sustained peak performance, with improved cooling design, more efficient motors (and perhaps more efficient cell chemistry), and a track mode that, amongst other things, manages pre-cooling to optimize modest-duration track sessions. This has been enough to allow the Model 3 Performance to set very competitive lap times at several popular circuits.

In April 2019, Tesla updated the Model S Performance (and other variants of Model S and Model X) with the “Raven” powertrain, partially borrowed from the Model 3. Tesla stated in the announcement that, amongst other things, it brings “improved lubrication, cooling, bearings, and gear designs” as well as “[significant] power and torque increases.”

However, as yet, owners and reviewers have done precious little rigorous real-world testing (or at least, publicized testing) of what these improvements allow in terms of sustained track and high-speed performance.

With the plan to send the Model S to the Nürburgring, Elon Musk seems ready to show what the Model S is now capable of.

Necessary Ingredients for a Decent Lap Time
We’ve already done an extensive analysis of the Taycan’s 7:42 Nordschleife lap time, finding that the Taycan is very fast through the twisty sections, clearly beating out combustion peers (and its Panamera sibling) over the first half of the circuit. Only on the high-speed sections, particularly the long back straight, does the Taycan give up its advantage.

Worth repeating one key point of that article here: the Nordschleife has an absurdly long back straight (1.78 miles, 2.86 km), allowing crazy high speeds (around 200 mph, 320 km/h) that make overall lap times here unrepresentative of a vehicle’s relative performance in real-world spirited driving. To put it briefly, vehicles with (unrealistically) high top speeds can gain an advantage over better handling vehicles with more modest top speeds. The track’s atypical characteristics also mean that Nordschleife performance is not even representative of what will occur on the vast majority of race tracks, which are typically much shorter, have much lower peak speeds, and are more twisty and technical in character, elevating vehicles that corner and handle well, over top speed specs.

Putting those important provisos to one side, the Model S Performance should be a close match to the Taycan on the Nordschleife. Elon Musk would presumably not have lined up the lap attempt if he knew the Model S couldn’t put in a roughly comparable performance. Unless perhaps in a fit of pique? But even for Elon, this seems unlikely.

Since Tesla long ago stopped releasing detailed tech specs for its vehicles, we actually have very little solid data on the peak power output and torque of the current “Raven” powertrain. The previous version of the Model S is sometimes quoted as 568 kW and 931 Nm, but I’ve seen no definitive data for the Raven — these figures may well have increased. Certainly the Raven’s quarter-mile time has marginally improved over previous versions.

Despite having larger dimensions and more interior space than the Taycan Turbo S, the Model S Performance is actually a slightly lighter vehicle (around 2260 kg vs. 2295 kg). If the above kW figures for the previous generation are correct (or improved upon), the Tesla has a slight power advantage (568 kW or more, vs. 560 kW). This gives the Model S Performance an approximate 3% advantage in power-to-weight ratio over the Taycan Turbo S. Again, the Raven powertrain may have improved this further.

The top speed of both vehicles is very similar (just over 160 mph). Even acceleration is similar, though with the Tesla favoring lower-end acceleration, and the Taycan (partly due to its 2-gear setup on the rear motor) favoring the upper end. The crossover point between the two in acceleration ability could be anyway between roughly 60 mph and 100 mph. Since the NordSchleife is a relatively high-speed circuit, with many sections well above 100 mph, on paper the Taycan’s high-end acceleration bias should be favorable, but the relative accelerator (and traction) responsiveness of the two vehicles (e.g., coming out of corners) is also a factor, and as yet an unknown.

The comparative center of gravity between the two is also an unknown, and this influences cornering speeds. This may also favor the Taycan (said to have a lower CG than the 911), but we just don’t know for sure. The Taycan Turbo S does have real-wheel steering, which should also give it an advantage in this area. Torque splitting response across all 4 wheels also helps cornering ability, and although Porsche has emphasized the Taycan’s much better performance over its FFV vehicles in this area, we still don’t know how its stacks up against the Tesla. The Taycan also has an adjustable rear spoiler (albeit of modest size) and other aero tricks, which should help with cornering grip and thus speeds, in the mid-to-high speed curves.

On paper, the Taycan does appear to have significantly stronger brakes than the Model S (420 mm ceramic rotors up front, vs. the Model S’s 355 mm steel rotors). This should hand the Taycan a significant advantage, and the Tesla will likely suffer on the Nordschleife with just 355 mm rotors.

Tires are an unknown. The Model S is at least sometimes supplied with Michelin Pilot Sport 3 tires, but Tesla could readily offer a more track-tuned tire variant. The Taycan’s spec sheet didn’t mention much more than basic information on tire dimensions and broad category (104Y XL type) — chime in the comments if you know more. What’s important for official lap times to be legitimate is that tires, brakes (and other equipment and specs) used on the track are readily available to customers as factory-fitted and road-legal options. The use of custom equipment, specifically fitted to artificially boost lap performance over the standard vehicle, are not viewed with approval.

This brings us to a potential advantage for Tesla. Since Porsche has already r..

Tesla Model 3 Buyers In China Can Rejoice Thanks To Sales Tax Exemption

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Published on August 31st, 2019 |

by Steve Hanley

Tesla Model 3 Buyers In China Can Rejoice Thanks To Sales Tax Exemption

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August 31st, 2019 by Steve Hanley

No one knows what is going to happen with the “easy to win” tariff war initiated by America’s putative president over a year ago, least of all him. What we do know, however, is that China has agreed to grant all Tesla vehicles an exemption from the 10% purchase tax that all new car buyers normally pay.

According to Reuters, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the exemption on August 30. The change marks an important concession amidst trade tensions with the United States. On average, the exemption will lower the cost of buying a new Tesla by 99,000 yuan, or about $13,957, according to a post on Tesla’s social media WeChat account.

All 16 variants of the Tesla Model S, Model X, and Model 3 offered for sale to Chinese customers are listed in a document detailing the exemption on the MIIT website. No reason was given for the decision to exclude the cars from the tax, but it does come at a time when Tesla is expanding in China by building a new factory in the Free Trade Zone outside Shanghai.

Leading up to the start of production at that factory, Elon Musk has visited China several times. He has publicly praised China in the midst of tensions with the United States and thanked the Shanghai and national governments for their support.

Musk has met with senior leaders, including China’s Vice President Wang Qishan and the transportation minister. He has called national leaders “very thoughtful” and alluded to China’s “amazing” progress in sustainable energy, transport, and space exploration. “This year they did more orbital launches than the USA for the first time,” Musk tweeted last December.

Craig Irwin, an analyst for Roth Capital, tells Reuters, “It is pretty clear Tesla is committed to China, with the investment in the Shanghai Gigafactory. Those relationships probably helped Tesla lobby for a successful exemption from the tax. Now we need to closely watch the build out of the Shanghai Gigafactory and Model 3 volume ramp in China.”

While Tesla does not disclose sales by country, consulting firm LMC Automotive estimates the company sold 23,678 cars in China in the first seven months of this year, which is nearly double the number it sold in 2018.

Also on Friday, Tesla announced it is raising the price of the cars it sells in China by 2% to offset the weakening of the yuan in recent weeks. The long range dual motor Model 3 is now 439,900 yuan ($61,467), up from 429,900 yuan ($60,070) previously. But the net effect is that, after the purchase tax exemption, Tesla will cost a Chinese customer considerably less to buy this week than it did last week. Tesla stock was up 4% following the exemption announcement.

Tesla is clearly betting heavily on China, which only makes sense since its new car market is the largest in the world and its electric car market accounts for approximately half of global electric car sales. It’s true that sales are not quite as robust this year as they have been in previous years, but there will still be more than 22 million new cars sold in China this year, even in a down market, with perhaps 8% of those being plug-in car sales.

With its close ties to the national and local governments, Tesla should be well positioned to sell as many cars in China as it can manufacture. We’ll keep you informed via our regular China EV sales reports.

About the Author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may lead him. His motto is, “Life is not measured by how many breaths we take but by the number of moments that take our breath away!” You can follow him on Google + and on Twitter.

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