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UBS repeats: Tesla will lose money on $35,000 Model 3

Tesla analyst: The company needs to increase price of Model 3 just to break even
4 Hours Ago | 03:09

Buyers waiting for that long-promised $35,000 Tesla Model 3 sedan probably shouldn't hold their breath.

After UBS recently pulled apart a Model 3 and compared its quality and estimated costs with two competitors, UBS analyst Colin Langan said he thinks Tesla will never be able to make money at the $35,000 the company originally planned to charge for an entry-level model designed for the masses.

“This car needs to sell in the low $40,000's to break even, and I think they're a long way from the 25 percent growth margin target, unless they can sell it well over $50,000,” Langan said Tuesday on CNBC's “Power Lunch.”

UBS hired a team of engineers to pull apart three different electric cars to compare their technology and production costs: a new Tesla Model 3, a 2014 BMW i3 and a 2017 Chevy Bolt.

The team examined a $49,000 2018 Model 3 and were “crazy” about the powertrain, “highlighting next-gen, military-grade tech that's years ahead of peers,” Langan said in a note dated Aug. 15. But the costs were higher than expected, and the cars would lose about $6,000 each at Tesla's original plan to sell an entry model at $35,000, he said.

It is another sign Tesla may have trouble turning into the mass-market automaker it said it wants to become.

Plans to manufacture the lower-cost vehicle have been delayed since its announcement in 2016 as the electric car manufacturer struggled to meet demand. CEO Elon Musk said in May that manufacturing the Model 3 at that price “right away” would cause Tesla to “die.”

Instead, Tesla focused on higher-cost versions that yield better margins, and that move may help Tesla post the profit in the third quarter of 2018 Musk said he expected. The cheapest model available now is $49,000, and buyers can add options that hike the price up to $80,000. Langan estimated the profit margin on the $49,000 version UBS tore apart was about 18 percent.

The problem is those prices aren't sustainable for a midsize sedan like the Model 3, Langan said. Even though the Model 3 is a battery electric, Langan said at least some of its buyers will also be shopping midsize sedans with internal combustion engines that are priced in the mid-$40,000 range, such as the BMW 3-Series.

The UBS engineers gave a breakdown of each car's powertrain and battery, electronic controls, frame and body as well as interior and safety features. They evaluated each part's design, ease of manufacturing and cost.

Tesla beat its two competitors in cost, but the Model 3 didn't have as big a lead over the other automakers as UBS had expected. However, some of the Model 3's technology seemed to be far ahead of that found on the Chevrolet and BMW. In particular, Tesla's electric powertrain stood out as exceptionally simple and flexible.

UBS based its estimates on consultations with engineers and industry research.

Tesla was not immediately available for comment.

Chevrolet and BMW did not comment on the original UBS report.

WATCH: Tesla whistleblower tweets details about allegedly flawed cars

Tesla whistleblower tweets details about allegedly flawed cars
4:55 PM ET Thu, 16 Aug 2018 | 01:21

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Tesla shareholders face possible capital gains tax bill if company goes private

There's another reason Tesla's faithful investors might want to scrutinize CEO Elon Musk's public musings on taking the company private: Shareholders would likely face a tax bill.

Musk's surprise announcement last week — which is under review for possible violations of securities laws, according to various published reports — included his hope to let shareholders remain invested in a special fund if the company were to go private. He also said he would offer $420 per share.

Musk reiterated in a blog post on Monday that he would want current shareholders to remain invested if they choose to. He also said the $420 price he floated would be for those who don't want to stay.

Ray Tamarra | Getty Images

“My best estimate right now is that approximately two-thirds of shares owned by all current investors would roll over into a private Tesla,” Musk wrote.

However, if that were done via a special fund as he initially said, shareholders likely would need to sell their Tesla shares and purchase fund shares.

“It would be like buying a mutual fund, only the fund only invests in one stock,” said Bill Smith, managing director at CBIZ MHM's National Tax Office in Washington.

And for investors with profits from the sale of their shares, those gains would be taxed regardless of what they do with the money.

Short-term gains — shares held less than a year — are taxed as ordinary income. Long-term gains are those for shares that were held longer than that, and the rate is either zero percent, 15 percent or 20 percent, depending on your overall income.

Goldman Sachs moves Tesla to 'not rated' status while acting as financial advisor
1:02 PM ET Wed, 15 Aug 2018 | 01:08

Longtime Tesla shareholders could be on the hook for a big bill. In June 2010, Tesla went public with an opening share price of $19. Since then, its stock has climbed to $340 or so — and that's despite the company continuing to post losses. In 2017, Tesla had a reported a net loss of $2.24 billion, widening from $773 million in 2016.

Nevertheless, $10,000 invested in Tesla when it went public eight years ago would be worth close to $179,000 today. That gain of $169,000, taxed at the top rate of 20 percent, would generate a tax bill of $33,800. And depending on the investor's total adjusted income, an additional 3.8 percent tax could be due.

While there are company structures and accounting strategies that in theory can help shift shareholders from public to private without taking a tax hit, Tesla's size pretty much rules that out.

“For Tesla's size, it's highly unlikely,” said JR Lanis, a partner at the Los Angeles office of national law firm Drinker Biddle. “If we were talking about a much smaller company, maybe.”

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Beyond the tax implications of staying invested with Tesla through a fund, investors should be aware of other issues.

For starters, it's unclear exactly how a special fund could be structured in a way that would allow all shareholders to stay if they want, despite Musk's hope.

“It's hard to do these types of big-dollar transactions under the best of circumstances,” Lanis said. “If you bring in smaller investors, it's a coordination nightmare.”

Generally speaking, private companies are allowed to have up to 2,000 regular shareholders without triggering SEC reporting requirements. If a fund were created, it could be a way to sidestep the limit.

However, in that case, experts say the investors would need to be accredited — meaning they need to have at least $1 million in investable assets excluding the value of their home or average yearly earnings of $200,000 ($300,000 for married couples).

“It's hard to do these types of big-dollar transactions under the best of circumstances. If you bring in smaller investors, it's a coordination nightmare.”
-JR Lanis, Partner, Drinker Biddle

In other words, that would remove the option to remain invested for anyone who could not meet those minimum requirements.

“The profile of the typical Tesla investor is someone who is wealthy and a young tech investor, who may or may not be accredited,” said certified financial planner James Gambaccini, a managing partner at Acorn Financial Services in Reston, Virginia.

Even for those who could stick with the company, it would mean less flexibility in when you can buy or sell shares. Musk's email to employees said he envisioned allowing shareholders to buy or sell about every six months.

Additionally, there's a big difference between being invested in a public company — one whose stock trades on a U.S. stock exchange — and a private one.

Public companies must adhere to stricter reporting requirements, including filing quarterly financial statements that can be viewed by the public on the Securities and Exchange Commission's website. They also face prying questions from Wall Street analysts, whose reports can sway investor opinion.

Private companies, on the other hand, generally can avoid publicly sharing their financial information. That might be a bonus for the company itself due to reduced scrutiny, but it leaves investors with less ongoing information to base investment decisions on.

Getaround car-share service raises $300 million in new funding round

Source: Jill Silvestri

Getaround, the car-share company that lets drivers rent their vehicles to strangers, is gearing up for more growth fueled by a new round of funding.

The San Francisco company has raised $300 million in Series D funding led by the SoftBank Vision Fund. Toyota and company insiders also provided money in the latest financing round. Getaround has raised $400 million in total capital so far.

“We are confident in our product, playbook, and team,” Sam Zaid, Getaround founder and CEO said in a statement. “We look forward to leading the growth of next-generation carsharing.”

Since starting in 2010, Getaround has steadily grown its car-share network to include several thousand vehicles in 66 U.S. cities. In the last year, Getaround has seen a sevenfold Increase in booked hours.

For SoftBank, the investment comes just months after the Japanese company agreed to buy a 20 percent stake in GM's autonomous vehicle subsidiary Cruise Holdings for $2.25 billion. SoftBank also has invested $9.3 billion in Uber, becoming the ride-hailing company's largest investor.

“SoftBank sees carsharing as an accelerating trend that will disrupt car ownership”, said Michael Ronen, managing partner of SoftBank Investment Advisers.

Car-sharing, which allows members to rent a vehicle for a few hours or several days, has been around for more than 15 years. Zipcar may be the best-known car-share company with more than 12,000 vehicles available for rent. In recent years the industry has picked up momentum with Daimler subsidiary Car2Go and GM subsidiary Maven both steadily growing their networks.

Questions? Comments? BehindTheWheel@cnbc.com.