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Tesla Model Y: “Limited Production” ≠ Customer Deliveries

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Published on October 15th, 2019 |

by Zachary Shahan

Tesla Model Y: “Limited Production” ≠ Customer Deliveries

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October 15th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

We published an article earlier today about leaked info we received from a historically reliable source inside Tesla who indicated there’s a target to start limited production of the Tesla Model Y in Tesla’s Fremont factory sometime around Q1 2020. Our main source has previously shared detailed information of various sorts that proved to be accurate, some of which we published and some of which we didn’t. Our source is not a top executive at Tesla, and we all know that Tesla is a nimble company that can change plans (or run into challenging bottlenecks) as the seasons change, so first and foremost I do think it’s wise to be cautious about leaked expectations for limited Model Y production anywhere from 3 months from now to 6 months from now.

More importantly, though — and the reason for this article — I think people should be cautious about conflating production (er, limited production) and customer deliveries. Even if production starts rolling at a slow pace in 3–6 months, customer deliveries may not start for another several months after that. We don’t have any insight into this matter.

In fact, even though Model Y production commencing in or near Q1 2020 may seem far in advance of Tesla’s stated plans to start shipping Model Y to customers in “fall 2020,” there may not be much (or any) discrepancy at all. This leaked information may simply mean that Tesla is on track with its stated Model Y development and production plans.

Of course, we know that some Model Ys are already in testing on the road:

However, Tesla has previously tested prototypes of new models several months before customer deliveries began.

Another contributor of ours, Maarten Vinkhuyzen, offered some useful comments on this topic underneath the article earlier today. His comments are based on previous Tesla announcements, how precise or careful the company has been about Model Y production statements, and his own deduction:

What was notable was that it was more careful this time around. Tesla talked about start of production, start of volume production, start of deliveries to public, all with different moments in time. That made me thinking.

The time line as I see it:

2020Q1
— start of the production line,
— end-to-end system testing,
— programming, configuring, debugging, and tuning.

2020Q2
— start of trial production,
— product QA, panel gaps, paint job, fit and finish,
— production of test vehicles for collision, safety, cold & hot climates, endurance.

2020Q3
— start building Model Y production line in Shanghai GF3
— start of production,
— vehicles for showroom and test-drives at USA dealers,
— first deliveries to employees.

2020Q4
— start of volume production,
— deliveries to employees Tesla and SpaceX,
— deliveries to first, preferred customers around Fremont.

2021Q1
— start of deliveries to public at large.

As you can see, Maarten’s forecast fits both the leaked information we received regarding “limited production” as well as Tesla’s official “fall 2020“* commencement of deliveries target. I don’t know enough about manufacturing to know if this timeline is realistic, but it looks logical to me.

The key summary note that I’ll repeat is: “limited production” ≠ customer deliveries. We did not receive information on when initial customer deliveries are expected, and we did not receive enough insight into what is underway or planned to know if Model Y development and production is moving along faster than initially expected. We also have not heard from Tesla on this matter despite reaching out for commentary on the topic.

We will update you if we learn more. In the meantime, it seems safe to say that 1) Tesla Model Y production is still on track (as Elon Musk has stated every time he’s been asked about it), 2) it seems clear that it will occur in Fremont, and 3) there’s a chance that it’s ahead of schedule — but our information does not prove that. If you hear more, feel free to drop us a note.

*h/t Fact Checking
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About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin' to help society help itself one word at a time. He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor. He's also the CEO of Important Media. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, Canada, and Curaçao.

Zach has long-term investments in Tesla [TSLA] — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in this company and feels like it is a good cleantech company to invest in. But he offers no investment advice and does not recommend investing in Tesla or any other company.

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Last Friday, Detroit's WDIV-TV detailed the latest in negotiations between General Motors and the UAW Friday as the two seek to resolve a contract stand-off that currently has more than 45,000 U.S. auto workers on strike nationwide.

As part of this latest round, GM has promised to build an electric pickup truck at the Detroit-Hamtramck plant, which GM had previously said it would shutter. While this would be good news for the UAW on the surface, a new EV line would likely not fully utilize the existing plant space, meaning GM would not be able to employ as many union workers there as it had in the past.

Detroit-Hamtramck was previously the home of both the Chevrolet Volt PHEV and still produces the Cadillac CT6 and the Chevrolet Impala. When GM announced last fall that Detroit-Hamtramck would be shuttered, it allowed for the possibility that the CT6 might be assembled somewhere else if demand called for it, but that never materialized. 2020 will be the CT6's final model year.

In total, GM offered to commit $9 billion (up from $7 billion previously) to investment in its facilities, with $7.7 billion of that allocated to plants staffed by UAW employees. The remaining $1.3 billion would go to joint ventures, which could ultimately employ both union and non-union workers.

Electric cars have been a sticking point for the UAW for multiple reasons. In addition to the likelihood that their lower volumes would mean fewer production lines and shifts, the UAW is concerned by GM's insistence on entering into joint venture projects or even outsourcing for some major EV components, which would cut union workers out of the equation.

Even a joint venture with some UAW members employed would be a far cry from a fully staffed production line. Picketers at GM's Lordstown facility in Ohio, which was previously home to the now-discontinued Chevrolet Cruze, have cited this exact concern.

Breaking! Tesla Model Y Production To Start In Q1 2020 (Unofficial Leak)

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Published on October 15th, 2019 |

by Chanan Bos

Breaking! Tesla Model Y Production To Start In Q1 2020 (Unofficial Leak)

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October 15th, 2019 by Chanan Bos

This information is going to cause some controversy, because everything we knew, or thought we knew, about Tesla’s Model Y timeline is about to change. Originally, the Model Y was supposed to start shipping in Q1 2021. This is also what is currently written on Tesla’s website. However, according to an anonymous source with a proven and reliable track record, Tesla is about to accelerate its plans and start production in Q1 2020 at its Fremont factory. (We’ve also received the same information independently through a reliable second-hand source.)

The Model Y will launch with the Long Range all-wheel drive (AWD) trim, according to this source, and Tesla will release the Standard Range Plus (SR+) version once production has been ramped up and the Model Y SR+ has a large enough gross margin.

Tesla has learned a lot since it started manufacturing the Model 3, and it’s possible that the ramp up will be much quicker than with the Model 3, but we don’t have a firm estimate of when the SR+ would start rolling off the line.

One other bit of important speculation here is that GF1 is still supply constrained. In that case, Tesla would want to focus customers as much as possible on the Model Y Performance and Long Range variants to ensure overall profitability. (Just as a quick side note, for any critic reading this article, this doesn’t mean that Tesla is unprofitable — it simply means the company is being logical and responsible in order to maximize profitability while expanding its lineup.)

Another fun little tidbit of technical information we have been told is that the Model Y will indeed use the new revolutionary flex-cable circuitry that reduces the length of wires needed throughout the car and also gives every component a redundant connection to the battery and the computer. This makes it possible for robots to install more of the “guts and veins” of the car and cut down on the manual labor involved in installing cables. As Elon Musk has said multiple times, robots suck at placing normal cables into the vehicle.

Many Model Y components will be similar to those in the Model 3, but not identical, including the battery packs.

This obviously raises a ton of questions, here are some and how they will change the grand scheme of things:

Is Tesla going to repeat the production hell it went through in Q4 2018/Q1 2019?

It’s possible, but not very likely. Tesla’s Model 3 was the first car Tesla ever decided to build at the scale of hundreds of thousands per year. It was also an almost entirely new vehicle with few shared parts between it and the Model S or X. The company made a lot of mistakes and learned a lot from those mistakes. The Model Y and Model 3 share about 75% of their components, so the learning curve should be much easier.

How did Tesla manage to pull this off?

In the last year or two, many in the media have bashed on Tesla like it was their guilty pleasure, writing up all kinds of misinformation, FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), and predictions of doom. (Bankwuptcy is willy coming!) The media claimed that the Model 3 was behind schedule, that Tesla couldn’t mass manufacture it, that the Model 3 was unprofitable, that the Standard Range trim would never come, that Tesla in general is unprofitable, and more. Tesla has refuted each claim simply with its actions time and time again.

One of Elon’s base instincts is to set very ambitious timelines, a strategy that has always paid off. Even if that overly ambitious goal was not met on time, it was still met much quicker than it would have been with a conservative timeline. There is a pretty famous example about the beginning of The Boring Company. Elon decided he wanted to do it and that he will do it right outside in the parking lot and asked how soon they could clear out all the cars and everything else to start digging. The first timeline given to him was a week. Elon gave them 24 hours and they broke ground within 48. We received similar stories when interviewing Tesla President Jerome Guillen regarding Model 3 production.

With the Model Y, I am willing to bet that Elon’s timeline for starting Model Y manufacturing was around the end of 2019, and after a lot of convincing from was persuaded to say Q1 2021 on stage — for the first time separating internal targets from public ones. Now, instead of the news claiming that Elon is late, they will claim he is a miracle worker and the stock will go up since he is basically “playing the game” that gets Wall Street and the media to portray Tesla’s good side. If anyone is familiar with the engineer Scotty from Star Trek and how he was a “miracle worker,” well, this is pretty much the same thing. (This is simply my expectation, of course. It is not investment advice.)

For the record, Tesla representatives have not yet responded to an inquiry about this leaked news. We will update this article if they do.

Where will the Model Y be manufactured?

According to the information we currently have, Tesla will be manufacturing the Model Y at its Fremont factory. Something I have been looking to report on but never got around to is speculation about where in the factory Tesla could place GA5. While the next image does not show the layout of the manufacturing lines (of which we have been able to draw a speculative map but are not publishing today), it does show where we think GA5 will be.

Part of this speculation is based on something Elon Musk said during the 2019 Q1 investor call:

“Credit goes to the Tesla team that actually looked at how could we do this in Fremont, if we had to, and we feel like we can actually append building space to the west side of the building and use a lot of internal space that is currently used for warehousing in Fremont factory, and so we believe it actually can be done with minimal disruption to add Model Y to Fremont.”

Now, the area that Tesla has currently labeled as a service center is technically speaking not something that necessarily has to be attached to the main factory complex. Tesla’s seats, for example, are manufactured in a factory a few miles away. The same can be done with the service center. With the unibody stamping technologies we have seen Tesla patent and the fact that the Model Y and Model 3 share 75% of their components, it’s quite possible that parts of those lines can be combined. There are rumors that Tesla plans to combine the Model S and X lines. We have no information to offer on this, but one thing we do know is that Model S and Model X make use of a lot of manual work and have a lot fewer robots than GA3, and those lines could theoretically use a tech upgrade.

Will they start manufacturing the Model Y in Shanghai at the same time?

The answer to that question is that it’s not impossible but it’s doubtful. The Model 3 has been manufactured for over a year. There were a lot of small problems with the Model 3 and the way the vehicle is manufactured that have since been solved, and the process in general has been smoothed out. With the Model Y, while it does share many of the same components, Tesla will likely want to make many small changes to how it’s manufactured before copy-pasting it in Shanghai.

We are likely to hear more about this during the Q2 investor call slated for October 23rd, and just like the last few times, we will be live on YouTube to present it with a lot of the extra context that we also provided last time. More on that soon.

Our secondary source heard that more information regarding the Y will come at the Tesla pickup event next month. We’ll see. In the meantime, if you learn more, drop us a note.

As noted above, Tesla has not yet responded to an inquiry about the leaked news. We will update this article if the company does so.
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About the Author

Chanan Bos Chanan grew up in a multicultural, multi-lingual environment that often gives him a unique perspective on a variety of topics. He is always in thought about big picture topics like AI, quantum physics, philosophy, Universal Basic Income, climate change, sci-fi concepts like the singularity, misinformation, and the list goes on. Currently, he is studying creative media & technology but already has diplomas in environmental sciences as well as business & management. His goal is to discourage linear thinking, bias, and confirmation bias whilst encouraging out-of-the-box thinking and helping people understand exponential progress. Chanan is very worried about his future and the future of humanity. That is why he has a tremendous admiration for Elon Musk and his companies, foremost because of their missions, philosophy, and intent to help humanity and its future. He sees Tesla as one of the few companies that can help us save ourselves from climate change.

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