The construction of the charging infrastructure devours large sums of money, a fast charging station can cost up to 150,000 euros. In the coming years, however, the income of providers is also likely to skyrocket. In a study exclusively available to manager magazin, the management consultancy Bain calculates that annual sales relating to the charging infrastructure for electric cars in Europe alone will increase sixfold by 2030 – from the current 7 to 8 billion euros to 40 to 55 billion euros. Profits are also likely to increase sharply, from the current 500 to 700 million euros to 3 to 5 billion euros.
The authors of the study, Eric Zayer and Ingo Stein, predict that sales growth in the USA will be even stronger. Up to 70 billion euros are even possible there in 2030, most recently the industry had only turned over between 2.5 and 3.5 billion euros there. In China, the Bain consultants also expect big leaps, albeit at a slightly lower level. There is a sales potential of up to 30 billion euros there, currently it is between 2 and 3 billion euros.
“The fuel prices, which have risen sharply in many countries, together with the ambitious climate targets, could now help to accelerate the transition to vehicles with electric drives again,” Zayer and Stein expect. If you want to benefit not only from the model side, but also from the foreseeable infrastructure boom, you have to hurry. “Tomorrow’s markets are distributed today.”
Money is currently flowing primarily into the construction of fast charging stations. A costly business that is already competitive. If a pillar is to pay off for a provider, it needs an average utilization of 8 to 12 percent, explains Zayer. “That’s not utopian,” some could already use their charging stations sufficiently today. “Anyone who sets up the pillar in a good place, for example a perfect transit location, has good chances in Germany.”
In other countries such as Italy or Spain, on the other hand, there is a risk that the state will subsidize too many charging points for too few electric cars. The federal government is also active in this country and wants to create around 1,100 additional charging locations with the “Germany network” by 2023. The two billion euro project is controversial
, some providers recently filed a complaint with the EU Commission. They are particularly bothered by the planned price cap of 44 cents per kilowatt hour. However, Bain consultant Zayer considers it unlikely that the “Germany network” will endanger the more established providers on the market. The planned locations are too unattractive for that.
Five different charging scenarios
In total, Zayer and Stein have identified five charging scenarios around which providers can develop business models:
Charging on the go: Fast charging stations are required for this, they have to work reliably and quickly, the locations have to be chosen sensibly and additional comfort is required, for example in the form of toilets, free internet or a roof. The car manufacturer Tesla has set up its own network for this, including established providers like the gas station operator Aral are pushing into this business with force.
And newcomers like Fastned also want to have a say.
Charging at the destination: Highly frequented locations such as supermarkets or restaurants where customers spend a long time are attractive. Crucial for providers: trouble-free operation and competitive prices. The race is already hard-fought, warns Zayer.
Charging at home: In the future, it will no longer just be about the classic wall box. Smart home offers will also be in greater demand. Start-ups such as Heimladen, big names such as Volkswagen with its daughter Elli, but also classic electrician companies are pushing into that business.
Charging at work: Success factors will also be simple operating models and low prices. The supplier market is just as broad as when you shop at home.
Smart Energy Services: Whoever gets reliable access to a large number of parked vehicles wins. Bain sees the greatest potential around offices, factories and residential areas. Zayer and Stein expect that by 2030, related services could account for around a third of total charging industry sales.
Different skills are required for all five use cases. First of all, therefore, there should be successful specialists in every niche. “Later on, however, we expect cooperation and mergers,” says Eric Zayer. “Then there will be big players who offer everything from a single source.”