As the financial world looked into the abyss, the leaders of the world’s most important countries sat down and vowed to act together. A “fair and sustainable recovery for all” will be ensured, promised the heads of state and government of the G20 countries in their communiqué
. That was in April 2009 at the second G20 summit in London.
Those were cautiously optimistic times – despite all the acute problems at the time. The world economy would be managed jointly by the largest economies in the future, so it was hoped. The G20 leaders met for the first time in November 2008, shortly after the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers. Further concrete steps followed in London.
is a professor for economic journalism at the Technical University of Dortmund. The doctor of economics previously worked as deputy editor-in-chief of manager magazin. Müller is the author of numerous books on economic and monetary policy topics. Every week he gives a pointed outlook on the most important economic events for manager magazin and writes the column “Magisches Viereck”.
The contours of a vision became apparent: global governance could emerge from the great crisis of financial capitalism. From now on, the major powers would share responsibility.
Head of state Hu Jintao traveled from Beijing. He pledged
, China will “continue to participate in international cooperation to deal with the financial crisis as a responsible member of the international community”. In the summit group picture he is in the front row next to British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the host of the London meeting. Behind you can see Barack Obama and Dmitri Medvedev, smiling. The picture exudes a certain familiarity.
Today, 13 years later, one thing is clear: nothing has come of global governance. The world split into blocks again. The conflicts come to a head. The G20 are in shambles.
More than nothing – but not nearly enough
Russia thinks it is at war with the West. Medvedev, meanwhile pushed back in the Kremlin’s nomenklatura, is now issuing wild threats, including the nuclear annihilation of the West, which surpass even the abstruse doom fantasies of his President Vladimir Putin.
In China, after the end of Hu Jintao’s term in office ten years ago, there is a new phase of hard demarcation. At the Communist Party’s “People’s Congress” a few weeks ago, things came to a sad climax when Hu was led out of the hall in front of the cameras, apparently against his will. A strong indication of how much the country has been in the grip of regularization and repression since Hu’s successor Xi Jinping transformed the country from a one-party to an autocratic state. Externally, China presents itself as an imperial power. The repertoire also includes the threat of annexing democratic Taiwan.
The contrast to 2009 could hardly be more stark when the G20 leaders meet in Bali on Tuesday under the Indonesian presidency. Vladimir Putin will probably not travel there. US President Joe Biden and Xi will meet there on Monday. It is an attempt to defuse the recent escalation in the conflicts between the two superpowers – and to walk each other’s red lines.
It is not to be expected that much will come out of the G20 meeting. After all, one talks and maybe even negotiates. That’s more than nothing, but far from enough.
If the world faced great difficulties in 2009, this is even truer today. The worst war since 1945 is raging in Europe. The risk of a nuclear confrontation has never been greater, not even during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, because the existence of tactical nuclear weapons has lowered the inhibition threshold for using the bomb. In Asia, an armed conflict is looming between China and the US, which has promised Taiwan military assistance in the event of a Chinese attack.
Bad combination of recession, inflation and famine
The economic situation is difficult, to put it mildly: the rise in the price of energy, food and other raw materials as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has plunged large parts of the world into a nasty combination of recession, inflation and famine.
It doesn’t look any better ecologically: climate change is progressing. Despite some progress in decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions, global emissions have not yet been reduced like the OECD did in a study has calculated
. (Watch for the conclusion of the UN climate conference COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, due on Friday.) To make any difference at all, the biggest polluters would have to pull together. Together, the G20 emit around 80 percent of the carbon dioxide currently emitted. If anyone could do something about the warming of the atmosphere, it would be this group of countries.
There really is enough to do: create peace, save the climate, cushion economic crises. Instead, the Bali G20 meeting is the first global summits under the conditions of a new Cold War
. The West faces a Sino-Russian Far East bloc.
A world order for the 21st century
Global governance would mean tackling cross-border problems together and strengthening international institutions. That would be necessary because the era of American hegemony is over. Other parts of the world have caught up, economically, technologically, militarily. A coalition of powerful states is now needed to create and enforce international law – a world order for the 21st century. That would be the task of the G20. There is no one else who could do it.
In a disorderly world, when in doubt, the stronger will always prevail. There would be no limits to the fight with all means. Wars would be possible again. Stability would be a distant wish, urgently needed cooperation from climate to migration policy would be impossible. Such a showdown is reminiscent of the disorderly structures in the first half of the 17th century, when the Thirty Years’ War was raging in the center of Europe, but no longer fought with pikes and muskets, but with cyber sabotage, energy embargoes and nuclear armament.
In the light of day, we’ve long been in this scenario. The Ukraine war and its consequences are an expression of this collapsing order.
The Appeal of Evil
Who’s to blame? First of all, those states that believe that global cooperation and international law are for wimps and prefer to pursue their imperial ambitions – repressively internally, aggressively externally. But nationalist great power politics is backward-looking and has forgotten the present. In a tightly networked world, it lacks any real basis. But autocrats are good at staging power. That’s what makes them appealing.
Then there are all those countries that maneuver between the blocks as free riders. Without taking a clear position, they stand on the sidelines and opportunistically seek short-term advantages, for example when buying cheap Russian oil and gas because it is sanctioned. These include India, G20 host country Indonesia and NATO member Turkey.
And then there is Europe, undecided and chronically divided. Yes, we support the course of the USA. But if Joe Biden’s government hadn’t stepped in with all its might, Russia would have occupied Ukraine long ago and overrun NATO’s eastern border.
Can we learn something from this precarious situation?
The chancellor talks about “a turning point”. Six months later he drives with a retinue of top managers to Beijing. Business as usual. Olaf Scholz could have traveled with French President Emmanuel Macron and Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen. It would have been a strong signal that the EU would appear united, no longer allow themselves to be played off against one another and intend to appear as the second strong Western player. A missed opportunity.
The EU has apparently not recognized the seriousness of the situation
The EU and its large member states do not appear to have recognized the seriousness of the situation. The obvious answer – the creation of a European army including a common nuclear deterrent – is not on the agenda. The urgently needed consolidation of the fragmented European armaments industry is still failing due to national egoism. The six largest EU member states alone – Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland and the Netherlands – together spend around 200 billion euros a year on the military. If you add the UK, Europe comes to $260 billion. However, we cannot ensure our own safety.
more on the subject
It is anything but absurd that in two years the next national populist will move into the White House in Washington. It is far from certain that the US will continue to stand by us. What conclusions do we draw from this?
Institutionally, Europe is fragmented, and not just on military issues. In a world characterized by the power play of a few great powers, the EU would have to become so capable of acting that it could play in the front row. Must, could – Europe remains stuck in the form of possibilities. The EU is the second largest prosperous economic area in the world and the largest trading power. We are neither small nor weak. From this arises the responsibility to play a leading role in global governance.
The most important economic dates of the coming week
MontagFrankfurt – Key sector in times of gas shortages – The Federal Association of the Chemical Industry reports on business in the third quarter.
London – Britain on strike – Work stoppage at Royal Mail. It’s about higher wages in the face of high inflation and a weak pound.
Tuesday
Bali – Everybody wants to rule the World – Start of the G20 summit chaired by Indonesia (until Wednesday).
Brussels – War in Europe – EU Defense Ministers meeting.
Luxembourg – On the situation in Europe – The EU statistical authority Eurostat published an estimate of economic development and employment in the EU and the euro area in the third quarter.
Reporting Season I – business figures from Infineon, ProSiebenSat.1, Varta, Vodafone, Walmart, Home Depot.
Beijing – World economy – China’s statistical office presents figures on economic development in October.
Wednesday
Reporting season II – business figures from Siemens Energy, Morphosys, Alstom, Cisco.
Thursday
Reporting season III – Business figures from Siemens, Thyssenkrupp.
FridaySham el Sheikh – Everything clean? – Expected conclusion of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27).
Sulzbach – inflation compensation – continuation of collective bargaining for employees in the paper industry.
Bangkok – Bridge to the Far East – Asia-Pacific Summit (APEC), with US Vice President Harris and French President Macron (until Sunday).