Auto Trader expects the used car market to perform well in H2, with sales predicted to rise 5% YoY to around 7.6m transactions, but warns dealers of a need to adapt due to supply shifts.
Dealers will need to adapt to a rapidly changing parc and forecourt over the next few years.
Marc Palmer, head of strategy & insights, said: “2024 has had its challenges, but overall, it’s performed well, and based on the current trajectory our outlook for the rest of the year remains positive.
“However, the heavily nuanced market retailers have had to manage over the last few years is only set to intensify, as the combination of supply constraints, more electric cars, and a changing brand landscape mean the parc will soon look very different.
“With such a dramatic change in forecourt dynamics, sourcing, pricing and selling cars are going to require a blend of both instincts and insights to navigate the market ahead.”
The shortfall of new cars built and sold over the course of the pandemic continues to impact stock flow. This year there will be 28% fewer cars under five years old in the parc compared to 2019.
A need to source older vehicles, as well as increased competition for stock will also be apparent.
In addition, Auto Trader estimates around 4% of the cars on the road will be an EV, compared to 88% ICE by the end of this year.
By 2028, around 33% of all under five-year-old used cars in the parc will be electric, up from around 15% by the end of 2024.
In 2033, Auto Trader expects more than a third of the cars on the road will be an EV while the proportion of petrol and diesel will decline to around half.