The Indian rupee is likely to remain anchored near a lifetime low on Friday, hit by concerns over the deluge of foreign money being pulled out of domestic equities and a jump in oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 83.97-83.98 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 83.9675 in the previous session and within a whisker of the 83.9850 lifetime low hit a month ago.
“For sure, (the dollar/rupee pair) would have opened well past 84 looking at oil, the well-bid dollar and the extent of selling (by foreigners in equities). “However, that is unlikely to happen,” a currency trader at a bank said.
The “biggest thing” that the Reserve Bank of India has done is dampened how rupee reacts overall to news flow, specially at levels which are considered critical, he said.
Brent crude soared 5% on Thursday to extend its weekly advance on worries over supplies due to the Middle East conflict. President Joe Biden said on Thursday the U.S. was discussing strikes on Iran’s oil facilities in retaliation to Tehran’s missile attack on Israel.
Markets are beginning to price in the likelihood of supply disruptions in the Middle East, which accounts for about a third of world supply, ANZ Bank said in a note.
Foreign investors took out about USD 1.8 billion from Indian equities on Thursday, according to provisional data from the BSE, and have now withdrawn more than USD 3 billion over the last three sessions.
Oil prices, Indian regulator’s steps to clampdown on equity derivative volumes and China’s recent stimulus are reasons cited by analysts for the exodus by foreign investors.
The September U.S. jobs report, due later in the day, will hold cues on whether the Federal Reserve will deliver one more 50-basis-point rate cut next month or shift to a more measured 25 bps reduction.
